Week 7 featured four quarterbacks, two running backs, and two wide receivers going over 30 points on the week. We liked the matchups for each player and most of us are happy with the results. But we couldn’t project them. This week, and every following week, should enforce the idea of a range of outcomes or what can reasonably happen within a game. It helps us identify some of the top scorers of the week, but it can also keep us from starting a player in a negative game environment. I found some of the players that wound up on the negative side of their range in Week 7 and what their outlook is for the weeks ahead.
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford, Lions
Week 7 Results: 22.5 (Projected), 18.4 (Actual)
Stafford’s QB15 finish in Week 7 wasn’t a complete disappointment. But we wanted more. The Falcons had allowed a QB8 performance from Kirk Cousins the week prior and Teddy Bridgewater finished as the QB12 in Week 5. The Lions’ offense with D’Andre Swift being used in the passing game was set to shine. And yet, the team could only muster 23 points in their comedic comeback against Atlanta. We expected an aggressive, downfield passing attack, but Stafford’s results aren’t matching the team’s passing tendencies (12th in neutral passing rate over their last three games). With so many fantasy-relevant assets tied to Detroit’s offense, I took a closer look at what’s ailing Stafford and if we can value him as a possible QB1 as we head towards the fantasy playoffs.
Advice Moving Forward:
Stafford is a QB2 moving forward and streaming options should be considered, but he has more positive matchups in their upcoming schedule. The main problem is his lack of touchdowns. Stafford is yet to throw for less than 200 yards, but he’s been unlucky in the red zone. He was knocked down in the red zone during the first quarter of Week 7 that forced a penalty moving the Lions to the 3-yard line setting up DAndre Swift for a short touchdown. A defensive pass interference call gave Adrian Peterson a 1-yard touchdown in Week 6. T.J. Hockenson fell at the 4-yard line in the same game giving Swift another short-yardage score. The abundance of rushing touchdowns has capped Stafford’s upside as he’s cracked the Top 12 just once this season. But his 2019 production, albeit for half a season, hints at positive regression for Stafford in the touchdown area. His touchdown rate through eight games last season was 6.5% whereas his current touchdown rate is 4.9%. The gap isn’t immense, but it emphasizes the few plays it takes to keep him at QB23 on the season. However, his 54.2% passing rate in the red zone (league average 52.1%) should provide the opportunity to convert more throwing touchdowns than passing in his future games. In addition, the Lions play Minnesota, Washington, and Carolina over their next month of games. Each team has allowed at least one QB1 performance over their last three games with Minnesota allowing two in Weeks 5 and 6. Streaming options should be considered for Week 8, but Stafford should be in the optimal game environments to produce in future weeks.
Running Back: Joshua Kelley, Chargers
Week 7 Results: 12.1 (Projected), (Actual) 10.3
The running back touches have bounced between Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson in Austin Ekeler’s absence. Kelley’s early-season performance indicated he was set to lead the Chargers’ backfield, but Jackson had other plans. He had the majority of the snaps and touches in Week 5, but the roles have reversed as the team comes out of their schedule bye. While the two running backs had similar scores, I looked at the rookie running back and his workload to see if there’s more to the story than the dreaded running back by committee.
Advice Moving Forward:
Kelley may project as an RB2, but we should adjust expectations for his ceiling. The positives for Kelley are that he both out-touched and out-snapped Justin Jackson coming out of their bye. To be fair, Jackson’s knee injury may have been a slight hindrance as he was limited earlier in the week. Regardless, Kelley was nearly able to pull even with Jackson in touches (29 to 30) since Austin Ekeler went down. But Kelley still holds the edge while the team is in scoring position. Through the two games the duo has split carries, Kelley has all of the rush attempts from within the 20-yard line and they have an equal target share (1 target each). So Kelley has had the opportunity, but the Chargers have had a 58.4% passing rate within the red zone (league average 52.1%). Justin Herbert has one less attempt than Kelley from inside the 10-yard line which has led to a rushing score for the rookie quarterback. Troymaine Pope entered the rotation in Week 7 (for 1 touch) further complicating the projected workload moving forward. Kelley’s ceiling is limited given his timeshare at running back, split opportunity in the red zone, and the team’s production through the passing game. Without a clearer path to production, Kelley slides into the mid-to-low RB2 range depending on matchup.
Wide Receiver: Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Week 7 Results: 12.9 (Projected), 5.7 (Actual)
Mike Evans started off the season essentially where he left off in 2019. He had a 20% target share and touchdowns in consecutive games with more production expected with Chris Godwin expected to miss time with a hamstring injury. But his production has waned over the last two weeks. He’s totaled just 4 targets while Tom Brady has thrown 50 attempts. Antonio Brown being added to the mix only clouds the situation even further as he’s set to be active in Week 9. Evans’ recent drop in production warranted a closer look and if there’s anything positive we can take away from his performance as we move forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
Evans may see an opportunity bump with Godwin out, but he’s not a must-start player and trade options should be considered. Bruce Arians’ superlatives regarding Evans do nothing to quell our anxiety regarding the WR5 in PPG from 2019. We need something to give us hope or information that targets are coming, and the data at least lends support to the idea from two perspectives. First, his film still indicates he can create separation. However, the issue is his connection (or lack thereof) with Tom Brady. Trevor Sikkema of The Draft Network noted several plays from Week 7 showing Evans open on multiple route combinations, but he wasn’t the primary read. Evans’ problem, as some foresaw in the offseason, is a stylistic difference at quarterback. Jameis Winston would have rifled the ball to Evans regardless of coverage or separation. Brady takes what he’s given. So, as long as Evans still has the talent (which he clearly does), we just need him to be in a position for Brady to target him. Again, there’s some hope. Mike Evans has typically played the X-receiver role. His size and contested-catch ability was actually a point against the three-time Pro Bowler because of Brady’s tendency to target the interior areas of the field. However, Evans has moved around the formation more often this season. He’s played 133 snaps from the slot through seven weeks in 2020. He played 188 snaps from the inside in all of 2019. With Chris Godwin expected to miss multiple weeks, Evans at least has a path to seeing volume in Tampa’s loaded offense. We’ll need to see how target shares play out with Antonio Brown entering the mix, but we shouldn’t give up all hope just yet.
