Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 3 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the thirteen NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Dallas Cowboys (vs MIA) - 34.75 points
• New England Patriots (vs NYJ) - 32.75 points
• Kansas City Chiefs (vs BAL) - 29.00 points
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs NYG) - 27.00 points
• Minnesota Vikings (vs OAK) - 26.25 points
• Philadelphia Eagles (vs DET) - 25.75 points
• Los Angeles Chargers (vs HOU) - 25.75 points
• Los Angeles Rams (at CLE) - 25.25 points
• Buffalo Bills (vs CIN) - 25.00 points
• Green Bay Packers (vs DEN) - 24.75 points
• San Francisco 49ers (vs PIT) - 24.75 points
• Seattle Seahawks (vs NO) - 24.50 points
• Indianapolis Colts (vs ATL) - 24.00 points

Injury/Inactive Watch

• RB Marlon Mack, IND - My projections reflect him splitting reps with Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. The Falcons were shredded in week 1 via the run as Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison rushed for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns. Should Mack scratch, Jordan Wilkins is a must-start in all formats.
  
  
• Philadelphia pass catchers - A late report suggests that both WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Dallas Goedert could be available Sunday after neither practiced all week. If both scratch, the Eagles will use Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor in expanded roles.
  
  
• RB Rashaad Penny, SEA - He suffered a hamstring injury in practice today. Should he scratch, Chris Carson (who was already a great play) becomes an auto-start in cash-games.
  
  

Situations that stand out to me this week

• The inept Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins are blowing out their entire roster for draft picks and although that strategy might help them compete in a few years, it has them razor-thin on Sundays this season. The Cowboys are expected to put up 34.75 points against this unit and that might be a conservative estimate. The Dolphins rank dead last in my quarterback pressure ranking and are playing against a Dallas offensive line that has yielded just 0.5 sacks per game. The Dolphins are equal-opportunity bad and are yielding a league-worst 35.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and 2nd-worst 33.3 fantasy points to running backs per week. Team defenses are averaging 25.5 fantasy points per contest and this was before they changed to their backup quarterback. This has trainwreck all over it. In cash-games, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott should both be rostered. The one possible trap play from this game involves Amari Cooper. Miami has very few talented players left on their roster, but CB Xavien Howard is one of them. He is expected to shadow Cooper all game. It's a situation where Dak Prescott will likely just look elsewhere as he faces limited to no pass rush.
  
  
• The Arizona defense without Patrick Peterson - Arizona is allowing 329 yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns a game through the air. With Patrick Peterson sidelined, this unit can't cover anyone. Carolina is averaging 286 yards per game in the air with no touchdowns, but I suspect this pass-attack might improve without Cam throwing the ball. According to NextGen stats, Cam should have completed 65.5% of his passes this season. He has completed just 56.2% (worst delta among all quarterbacks). Arizona is also allowing a ridiculous 31.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends making Greg Olsen extremely attractive at his price. RB Christian McCaffrey and QB Kyle Allen could all benefit from the increased pace that comes in Arizona games. This game has sneaky shootout potential.
  
  
• Philadelphia's outside corners - Rasul Douglas and Ronald Darby have been lit up the first two weeks yielding three 100-yard games and 4 touchdowns to big receivers. 6'4" Kenny Golladay is in a great spot to torch this unit. He should be lined up against 5'11 Ron Darby nearly half of the snaps.
  
  
• Running Backs against the Bengals defense - The Cincinnati Bengals have yielded 5 touchdowns to running backs in the first two weeks. With Devin Singletary out, could old man Frank Gore crush his modest $9,200 salary at home?
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Dak Prescott / WR Devin Smith (Cost = $18,700, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.83)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $20,600, FP = 37.1, Ratio = 1.80)
• QB Kyle Allen / TE Greg Olsen (Cost = $17,000, FP = 30.5, Ratio = 1.79)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Damiere Byrd (Cost = $16,500, FP = 29.1, Ratio = 1.76)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $22,400, FP = 38.8, Ratio = 1.73)
• QB Carson Wentz / WR Nelson Agholor (Cost = $19,400, FP = 32.6, Ratio = 1.68)
• RB Ezekiel Elliott / Def Dallas Cowboys (Cost = $24,200, FP = 40.4, Ratio = 1.67)
• RB Dalvin Cook / Def Minnesota Vikings (Cost = $20,500, FP = 34.0, Ratio = 1.66)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Randall Cobb (Cost = $22,200, FP = 36.7, Ratio = 1.65)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Christian Kirk (Cost = $21,000, FP = 34.7, Ratio = 1.65)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,000, FP = 44.4, Ratio = 1.64)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $26,400, FP = 43.4, Ratio = 1.64)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $23,900, FP = 38.1, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $24,500, FP = 38.4, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $25,200, FP = 39.0, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz (Cost = $23,500, FP = 36.2, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $27,000, FP = 41.5, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $22,900, FP = 35.2, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $25,300, FP = 38.7, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Jacoby Brissett / WR T.Y. Hilton (Cost = $23,000, FP = 35.3, Ratio = 1.53)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Kyle Allen, Jacoby Brissett
• RBs: Phillip Lindsay, Darwin Thompson, Miles Sanders, LeSean McCoy, Peyton Barber, Frank Gore
• WRs: Devin Smith, Michael Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, Damiere Byrd, D.J. Moore, Preston Williams
• TEs: Greg Olsen, T.J. Hockenson, Austin Hooper, Vance McDonald, Jason Witten
• Def: Carolina, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (170.2)

• QB Dak Prescott, DAL - $12,300
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN $14,600
• RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL - $17,100
• TE Darren Waller, OAK - $7,400
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $13,300
• WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN - $9,500
• Flex TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $7,000
• Flex RB Chris Carson, SEA - $11,500
• TD New England Patriots or Dallas Cowboys - $7,000

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ DAL stack Projected Points = (168.7)

• QB Dak Prescott, DAL - $12,300
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN $14,600
• RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL - $17,100
• TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $7,000
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $13,300
• WR Devin Smith, DAL - $6,400
• Flex RB Chris Carson, SEA - $11,500
• Flex WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - $10,100
• TD New England Patriots or Dallas Cowboys - $7,000