Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Follow the Targets
- How Will They Score?
- Now #Trending
- What Have You Done for Me Lately?
- Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
| RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||||
| Defense | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Opponent | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | 18.7% | 26 | 4 | 58.8% | 29 | 14 | 22.5% | 32 | 13 | Cleveland Browns | ||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.0% | 6 | 1 | 62.3% | 32 | 21 | 19.7% | 30 | 7 | Detroit Lions | ||||
| Detroit Lions | 19.7% | 30 | 8 | 63.6% | 28 | 13 | 16.7% | 16 | 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 17.8% | 27 | 1 | 57.5% | 16 | 10 | 24.7% | 31 | 6 | Carolina Panthers | ||||
| Oakland Raiders | 20.9% | 20 | 6 | 55.3% | 25 | 15 | 23.8% | 27 | 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | ||||
| Houston Texans | 23.6% | 31 | 7 | 56.3% | 15 | 15 | 20.0% | 22 | 5 | Tennessee Titans | ||||
| New York Giants | 21.7% | 24 | 0 | 58.5% | 31 | 18 | 19.8% | 10 | 6 | Miami Dolphins | ||||
| Tennessee Titans | 23.6% | 29 | 3 | 54.8% | 21 | 10 | 21.6% | 25 | 7 | Houston Texans | ||||
Commentary
- Arizona allows 183.1 yards per game to wide receivers, fourth-most in the NFL.
- Cleveland gains 164.4 yards per game via wide receivers, 11th-most.
- Tampa Bay allows 203.0 yards per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL.
- Detroit gains 199.0 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Tampa Bay has allowed 21 touchdowns to wide receivers, second-most.
- Detroit opponents target wide receivers on 63.6% of pass attempts, the fourth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay targets its wide receivers on 61.6% of its pass attempts, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Detroit allows 182.5 yards per game to wide receivers, fifth-most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay gains 224.8 yards per game via wide receivers, most in the NFL.
- Oakland allows 174.1 yards per game to wide receivers, eighth-most.
- Jacksonville gains 185.2 yards per game via wide receivers, sixth-most.
- Tennessee allows 49.5 receiving yards per game to running backs, fourth-most.
- Tennessee opponents target running backs on 23.6% of pass attempts, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
Jarvis Landry has been the superior Cleveland wide receiver all season long, and news of Odell Beckham's sports hernia injury shouldn't change that. As long as Cleveland doesn't enter "give up" mode, they should move the ball and have success in the passing game. Landry is worthy of play in all DFS formats and is a locked-in WR1 in season-long leagues this week.
With Marvin Jones being out for the remainder of the season, 7.1 targets per game have opened up. Deep threat Marvin Hall is also on I.R., leaving Danny Amendola as the most likely candidate to see the majority of those looks. At his modest pricing in DFS, Amendola is one of the better points-per-dollar plays on the slate and is a PPR flex play with WR2 upside in season-long leagues.
Another target share set to change this week due to injury is Tampa Bay's. Mike Evans won't play with a hamstring injury, leaving Chris Godwin as the only proven commodity. But volume will open up for another player or two. Breshad Perriman is the most likely candidate to see an uptick in snaps (he played 83% last week and has played 60% or more in 6 of 10 healthy games this season).
Other candidates for more wide receiver volume in Tampa are Scott Miller and Justin Watson. Miller didn't play last week, which provided Watson the opportunity to rack up a 5-59-1 line. But Miller could return this week, making neither play very attractive. Perriman is a DFS GPP candidate due to the increased opportunity, his straight-line speed, and his 14.2-yard average depth-of-target this season.
Yet another wide receiver injury is the high ankle sprain to D.J. Chark. Jacksonville appears to have given up on the season, which brings some risk to playing anyone on the team. But Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook are cheap enough in DFS to consider the risk. Conley and Westbrook can be considered in all formats, especially when considering their projected increase in volume and the weakness of their opponent.
The Raiders' defense is now allowing a league-worst 3.3 touchdowns per game for the season. The Dolphins are just behind at 3.2 per game.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 9, 2019
Over the past two weeks, Duke Johnson Jr has played 68% and 53% of the team's snaps compared to 38% and 51% for Carlos Hyde. Johnson has 11 receptions, 94 yards, and 1 touchdown in those two games. In four games without Will Fuller this season, Johnson is averaging 1.8 more targets, 2.1 more receptions, and 15 more receiving yards than in the nine games Fuller has played.
How Will They Score?
This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.
- Take each team's implied Vegas team total
- Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
- Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
- Do the same for rushing touchdowns
Note: Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.
Passing Points
| Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off PaTD% | Def PaTD% | Proj. Pass |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins | 28.00 | 44.4% | 44.5% | 12.45 |
| Minnesota Vikings | Los Angeles Chargers | 28.50 | 42.5% | 43.0% | 12.18 |
| Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | 25.00 | 41.5% | 54.4% | 11.98 |
| Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 25.25 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 11.94 |
| Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | 25.25 | 47.3% | 47.1% | 11.92 |
Commentary
- Houston allows 70.8% of its yardage via the pass, the 10th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Houston allows 54.4% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the highest ratio.
- Tennessee scores a touchdown on 73.0% of its red zone drives, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Houston scores 47.3% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Tennessee allows 47.1% its total points via passing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio.
Action Items
Tennessee's offensive resurgence has been well-document across the fantasy industry, but these two tweets highlight it well. They've increased their efficiency and pace.
Titans' offensive TDs in Ryan Tannehill's 7 starts: 3 3 3 4 6 3 5
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 9, 2019
That 3.9 average is easily higher than the 3.6 per game the league-leading Ravens are averaging for the season.
Highest no-huddle rate, last four weeks:#Bills 38% #Cardinals 36%#Titans 21% 👀#Vikings 16%#Jags 15%#Cowboys 14%
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 9, 2019
This week's Rent-a-Quarterback wrote the following about Ryan Tannehill: He's a QB1, and it's time to get used to that. On top of that, the matchup and situation are good. He's a