Projection Spectrum: Odell Beckham Jr.

Photo: USA Today Sports

The goal of this series is to provide fantasy owners with a sense of what a player’s reasonable floor and ceiling are. Knowing this information can be key when making roster construction decisions.

There are three primary components in this analysis: Volume quantity, volume quality, and player talent. These three components are the lifeblood of a strong projection model.

Let’s jump into the first player – Odell Beckham

Beckham has seen an elite share of targets on a per game basis during his five-year career (between 26% and 28%). He has enjoyed 90 plus catch seasons in three of four years he played at least 12 games. Amazingly he has scored ten or more touchdowns in three of those four years.

Now he finds himself in a new offense with a new quarterback in Cleveland. How will that impact Beckham?

Read on.

Volume Quantity

Head coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken favor a high-volume offense, and both have shown a propensity to favor the pass. Their teams over the past three years have all outpaced the league average in both areas (1015 and 56%).

Kitchens and Monken Three Year Volumes and Percentages

The percentage of passes when tied provides a hint on how these coaches want to play when the game script isn’t factoring in as heavily. Attempts include passes and rushes but exclude sacks.

In 2018 Kitchens went 5-3 down the stretch. When leading, he leaned more on the run. Mayfield attempted under thirty passes in four of eight games. During that stretch, the Browns passed on 57% of plays. Vegas currently has the Browns at nine wins for the season so the low end of our model will account for that.

Beckham could hit a snag in target distribution. Kitchens and Monken have been part of offenses that supported target monsters but have also distributed the ball evenly when roster construction allowed.

Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway, and Duke Johnson Jr are all viable targets. Monken faced a similar issue last season with the Bucs having Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, Adam Humphries, and O.J. Howard. As the lead pass catcher, Evans saw 22% of the targets (a big step down from 29% in 2016).

When Kitchens took over play calling from Todd Haley, the team favored balance. Before Kitchens took over, Jarvis Landry saw four games with 35% target share or greater. That never happened post-Haley.

The touchdown market share historically has been spread out with these coaches. Last year Evans and Howard each had 22% under Monken. When the offense was less diverse in 2016, Evans saw 41% of the touchdowns. However, as we will discuss under the talent section below – Beckham’s limitless application likely insulates him.

In summary, Beckham finds himself on a high-volume pass-happy offense but might have to share targets more than in the past.

Projected Volume Ranges

Volume Quality

Beckham’s production to this point ties to Eli Manning. Manning’s abilities have eroded over Beckham’s career. As this has occurred, we have seen the impact on Beckham’s game as his yards after the catch (YAC) and catch rates have dipped.

Enter Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield’s 63.8% completion rate in year one is better than any season Eli Manning has had except for last year (66%). That is a bit misleading though because Manning posted his second-lowest average depth of target (ADOT) of his career at 7.8. Mayfield’s was 9.6.

Additionally, Baker showed an ability to succeed in the quick passing game while also being capable of buying time to take shots downfield. Mayfield’s 44.4% completion rate on passes over 20 yards is far superior to Manning’s recent marks of 23.3%, 29.5%, 32.3%, and 29.7%.

Mayfield is good at what this offense wants to be – an aggressive vertical passing unit.

Freddie Kitchen’s hails from mount Bruce Arians where an average ADOT of 10 for a QB is the norm. Monken has a similar background.

Kitchens immediately put his fingerprints on the offense in 2018. Mayfield saw his yards per attempt (YPA) jump from 6.7 to 8.8. The league average is 7.2.

Here is Mayfield’s pace over those last eight games: 4,508 yards and 38 touchdowns. His TD per attempt rate was a stellar 7.7% (up from 3.5%). The league average is 4.5%.

Kitchens and Monken 2018 Data

Considering how well Mayfield pairs with this scheme, it’s tough to see a scenario that doesn’t unlock new efficiency in Beckham’s game.

Projected Quality Ranges

Talent & Fit

We are to the last component of our equation and honestly the one where I don’t need to spend much time. If you are a football fan, you have witnessed the breathtaking things Beckham can do.

It is tough for defensive coordinators to take him away because he can win via separation or in the air in one on one situations. His application isn’t limited to any certain area of the field – he has shown the ability to work short, intermediate, and deep and can score from anywhere.

Beckham Historical Data

Expect to see Beckham work deeper more often given Landry’s skill set underneath. The conservative end of Beckham’s catch rate will come down but the aggressive end of his yards per catch (YPC) higher. Last season Mike Evans had a catch rate of 64% (extremely rare at his ADOT) and averaged 17.7 YPC with an ADOT of 16.6. DeSean Jackson had a catch rate of 57% (more typical) and averaged 18.9 YPC with an ADOT of 19.6.

Projected Efficiency Ranges

Projection Spectrum

When putting it all together, Beckham likely sees an increase in YPC with a decrease in catch rate and targets.

The Over-Optimistic Ceiling and Over-Pessimistic Floor have everything going right or everything going wrong. The likelihood of either happening is very low.

The Median, Realistic Ceiling, and Realistic floor represent ~70% of the possible outcomes. The margins between Realistic Ceiling and Optimistic plus Realistic Floor and Pessimistic account for ~30%. Think of a bell curve where probability is at its highest in the middle but gradually slopes down on both sides.

There is a multitude of amalgamations that could occur. It is unlikely that the linear bands above will mirror Beckham’s actual production. However, the total fantasy point outputs are strong, given all the inputs we have evaluated.

Here are two good examples of paths to Beckham’s Realistic Ceiling:

1. Outperforms projected median target share of 25% by matching career average of 27% and applying median projections for all other stats: 99 Receptions, 1385 Yards, and 11 TDs (304 PPR)
2. Outperforms projected median YPC of 14 by hitting 16 YPC given Evans and Jackson’s elite numbers last season plus a slight bump in TDs: 88 Receptions, 1410 Yards, and 12 TDs (301 PPR)

Actionable Advice

Currently, Beckham is going at pick 14 in PPR redrafts as the WR5 behind DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Mike Thomas. The first three of these players all have a higher median projection than Beckham (stronger target predictability). However, their ability to create big plays and score touchdowns trail. Beckham stands alone in this aspect.

Mike Thomas does not carry the same upside due to his limited application from the slot and a low ADOT. Julio Jones will likely see more volume, but his scoring ability is not on par. Jones has separation and YAC skills, but not the elite jump ball chops.

Selecting Beckham over Thomas and Jones makes sense for these reasons. You aren’t giving up much based on likely outcomes, but you are getting more upside in the outer range of possibility.

One could argue for Beckham as the WR1 because of the upside in that 15% upside range. While Adams and Hopkins carry a stronger median projection, their upside in the 15% range is lower.

Place Beckham in your top wide receiver tier with Hopkins and Adams. Take him happily at the turn or coming back in round two. Don’t be afraid to pair him with Hopkins or Adams if it plays out – it’s likely a better play than LeVeon Bell, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, or Damien Williams at running back.