The offseason plate tectonics have basically come to rest. We can survey the landscape of the NFL and ruminate on it for a month before the washing machine starts up again, but when that happens, we will have information coming at us at a Niagara Falls flow rate, so it’s important to firm up our starting point on player values so we have the proper framework to interpret that tidal wave of new data coming our way. Tight end is different than the other positions for lots of reasons, but most importantly you only start one and hopefully roster no more than two. That makes tiering them a much simpler exercise as we head into the season
Uberstud
Travis Kelce, KC
Kelce’s outlook was dinged a little when the possibility of Tyreek Hill getting a maximum four-game suspension was raised, but any dip in targets can be at least partially offset by more room to operate in the middle of the field. Of course, we want to make sure the ankle he had surgery on this offseason is good in camp and the preseason, but Kelce is head and shoulders above the pack and I would argue worth a first round pick this year.
Strategy Tip: Kelce is worth a first, but often available in the second
Monitor: Tyreek Hill suspension, Kelce ankle recovery
Mere Studs
George Kittle, SF
Zach Ertz, PHI
Kittle was a revelation and league winner level contributor last year, but he should be joined by healthier and better wide receivers this year… and a better quarterback. Maybe the two will cancel each other out? Kittle isn’t a red zone force, but his big-play ability keeps him in the third round mix. Ertz led all tight ends in targets last year, but the emergence of Dallas Goedert could bring that total down, along with the team having a strong running game and four viable wide receivers. He’ll be in the top three, but it’s hard to say where his numbers will fall between his 2017 and 2018 stats, and there’s a wide gap.
Strategy Tip: Team building works a lot better with this duo as third-round picks than second-round picks if you are selecting near the 2-3 turn
Monitor: Dallas Goedert role, San Francisco wide receiver health
Stud in the Making
O.J. Howard, TB
Howard was mid-breakout when he got hurt last year. He’s a true big-play tight end who could hit 1000 yards and ten scores in Bruce Arians offense. Ignore Arians history with tight ends, he hasn’t had a player like Howard before and he was clearly impressed with him early in his Bucs tenure. Howard could distance himself from the pack and close in on the top three this year.
Strategy Tip: Howard can be a very strong addition in the fifth round after all of the potential #1 backs have dried up.
Monitor: Arians usage of Howard
Strong Contributors
Jared Cook, NO
Hunter Henry, LAC
Evan Engram, NYG
Vance McDonald, PIT
None of these players will be as foundational as the top three, and they don’t have an arrow pointing straight up out of 2018 like Howard, but they will be strong contributors to their offenses with unknown ceilings and a clear advantage over the pack of streamers. Cook is the best option of the group and has the ability to bring the Jimmy Graham pages of the New Orleans playbook back to life. Henry should be a primary red zone target for Philip Rivers, although we also need Antonio Gates to not rejoin the team for his ceiling to stay intact. Engram has always been strong when Odell Beckham was sidelined, now he’s in Cleveland. Then again, Golden Tate was signed and this will be the most horizontal passing game in the league. McDonald mostly stayed healthy last year and set career highs across the board. This year, he could become Ben Roethlisberger’s #2 target.
Strategy Tip: McDonald is the cheapest of the tier and often available multiple rounds, but Cook can sometimes be overlooked and fall to the 7th or 8th round
Monitor: Brees/Cook chemistry, Gates status, McDonald health
Low Volume/High Target Value Options
Eric Ebron, IND
David Njoku, CLE
Dallas Goedert, PHI
Mark Andrews, BAL
If you’re waiting at tight end, one choice is to try to catch a player with big play or touchdown potential every week who will be more inconsistent because of lower target value than the tight ends drafted earlier. Ebron was a top-five option on touchdowns last year but will be in a more crowded Colts passing game this year. Njoku is ultra-athletic, in a potentially great offense, and sure to arrive eventually. But middling tackle play could make him attractive enough as a blocker to keep his fantasy impact running hot and cold. Goedert has been a spring star and might be coming into a much larger role in the passing game this year. Andrews was easily the most effective target for Lamar Jackson last year, and the passing game could grow in year two for both players. Any of these options can get you through September and level off as a mid TE1 in a best-case scenario.
Strategy Tip: Baltimore’s early schedule (at Miami, Arizona, at Kansas City) makes Andrews an attractive leadoff hitter in a streaming approach if you take the tank to E waiting for tight end in your draft.
Monitor: Jack Doyle health, Greg Robinson camp buzz, Goedert camp buzz, Lamar Jackson/Baltimore offense passing progress
Rodney Dangerfield
Jack Doyle, IND
Doyle don’t get no respect in fantasy circles. He was coming on in 2016, took a big step forward in 2017 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and was relevant when healthy last year. As long as his hip is sound, he should be a steady option and stopgap at tight end for fantasy teams while they aim higher via the wire or a trade at worst.
Strategy Tip: Waiting until the kicker/defense rounds and taking Doyle is a viable strategy at tight end in your draft this year
Monitor: Doyle hip recovery
Winter Is Coming
Greg Olsen, CAR
Jimmy Graham, GB
Tyler Eifert, CIN
Delanie Walker, TEN
Jordan Reed, WAS
Jason Witten, DAL
This geriatric set is full of injury landmines and hopes to squeeze out a year or at least a stretch of a return to glory. We could see any of them be worthless and look (even more) like a shadow themselves in Week 1 and go to the waiver wire in Week 2. Any sustained stretches of production can come to a screeching halt with an injury. On the other hand, this tier is full of proven producers. A few even have good to great quarterbacks or situations. They have the potential to be better than streaming while it lasts.
Olsen has always had great chemistry with Cam Newton and he’s the longest-tenured pass-catcher in the offense by a large margin. Graham has Aaron Rodgers and a chance to do better in year two at a much cheaper price than he came at last year. Eifert’s injury last year was of the freak variety and he was just looking like his old self again. Walker has always been underrated in fantasy circles. Reed was reasonably consistent in PPR leagues before going down last year. Some part of me thinks the Cowboys and Dak Prescott will rely on Jason Witten more than we expect.
Strategy Tip: Olsen begins with the Rams, Bucs, and Cardinals, making him a good leadoff hitter in a streaming approach
Monitor: Health, health, health. The best advice for taking a tight end from this tier in late August will be -- take the healthiest guy.
Do Rookie Tight Ends Matter?
T.J. Hockenson, DET
Noah Fant, DEN
Josh Oliver, JAX
Last year it was Chris Herndon and Ian Thomas. The year before that it was Evan Engram (who had the best PPR rookie tight end season since Jeremy Shockey in 2002). The year before that it was Hunter Henry. After a long stretch of rookie tight ends coming up short in fantasy relevance (since Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010), the position is back on our radar when it comes to rookies. This year there are two first round picks to consider - T.J. Hockenson, who shouldn’t leave the field for the Lions in any situation, and Noah Fant, who was drafted almost strictly for his receiving ability. The problem is that Hockenson will be as much blocker as receiver in the run-heavy Lions offense and Fant will have to establish chemistry with Joe Flacco in an offense with two viable backs and three viable wide receivers. The high bar of fantasy relevance is a little lower because of inconsistency at the position outside of the top 5-6, but this duo will likely require patience and carrying two tight ends to harvest any of the value. It is possible that one or both are instant hits considering Hockenson’s rare intersection of top-end receiving and blocking ability and Fant’s rare physical gifts, but it is also possible that one or both is available on the waiver wire by Week 3 or 4. Oliver is included here because Herndon wasn’t on anyone’s list to begin the season, but opportunity and a new quarterback gave him a shot. The Jaguars have a new quarterback, and they have a nondescript group of wide receivers. Don’t be surprised if Oliver is this year’s Herndon.
Strategy Tip: Rookie tight ends are more likely to hit later in the season, so they should be devalued in drafts but monitored closely on the waiver wire.
Monitor: Rookie tight end camp buzz
Taking the Next Step?
Chris Herndon, NYJ
Gerald Everett, LAR
Speaking of Herndon, what should we make of him? His athleticism stood out and he was an instant hit in a Jets that offense that was in transition and remains in transition this year. Adam Gase made Mike Gesicki into a blocker. The now deposed general manager took Trevon Wesco in the fourth round, who reminds Matt Waldman of Chris Cooley. The Jets offense is one of the more unpredictable to project at this point, but we could look back and realize that Herndon has been greatly undervalued when projecting year two growth into his 2018 numbers. Everett was drafted in the second round by the Rams in 2017 but has barely been used in a passing game that has coalesced around an outstanding trio of receivers and lead back. There are some signs that Everett will have a larger role this year, and the offense certainly will need to change and evolve to keep defenses off balance. Everett isn’t worth drafting, but we should have a quick trigger finger if he shows signs of an early breakout because the intersection of talent and offense quality is there for him to flourish.
Strategy Tip: If Cooper Kupp’s recovery is slow or setback, move Everett up in your rankings
Monitor: Kupp recovery, Everett/Herndon roles/camp buzz
Volume Plays
Trey Burton, CHI
Austin Hooper, ATL
Kyle Rudolph, MIN
This is my least favorite tier and the one I surely have rated lower than my peers. This group will have assured volume over the course of the season and even some peak weeks that feature scores or high catch totals that help you win your week. They also don’t add value to their target for the most part and we basically know what they are on the football field. Burton had one ceiling game when the Patriots let him roam free to focus attention elsewhere and tailed off as the season went on. Adam Shaheen should also be a bigger factor in the offense this year after he started out last year injured. Hooper had some high volume games, often when Matt Ryan was struggling to throw downfield. He seems like the fourth option in the pass offense at best behind Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Calvin Ridley, and probably not a better option than Mohamed Sanu. Rudolph was languishing last year until a big game fueled by a hail mary touchdown. The Vikings drafted another tight end in the second round this year (Irv Smith Jr.) and will lean run-heavy this year. This group can hold the line for you at tight end, but I’m looking elsewhere for potential overachievers.
Strategy Tip: These players will lock in a reasonable season-long floor, but deny you a chance at ceiling
Monitor: Adam Shaheen/Irv Smith roles/camp buzz
Waiver Wire Watch List
Jordan Thomas, HOU
Darren Waller, OAK
Mike Gesicki, MIA
Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI
Mo Alie-Cox, IND
Hayden Hurst, BAL
Charles Clay, ARI
Cameron Brate, TB
Ian Thomas, CAR
The reality is that at least a few teams will end up no consistent option at tight end and that a consistent option or three (for at least a stretch) will emerge from the waiver wire. Keep an eye on this group full of candidates to be the surprise tight end of 2019. Thomas will be Deshaun Watson’s #1 to open the season, and he’s a good red zone target. Waller is a converted size/speed wide receiver and Jon Gruden is saying the right things about him. Gesicki gets a second chance with Gase gone. Rational coaching could make him a main target in a rebuilding offense. Seals-Jones and Clay are intriguing solely because of the Arizona offense that could keep defenses on their heels for at least the first month of the season. Alie-Cox is a converted basketball tight end and he might turn the Colts tight end duo into a trio. Like Dallas Goedert, Ian Thomas and Cameron Brate, he’s also atop the injury upside list. Hurst was a first-round pick and may never surpass Mark Andrews, but he could also remind us why the Ravens took him in the first round.
