The FPC and the Tight End PPR Bonus Rule

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By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, I will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. Through these articles, I hope to provide extra help with fully understanding how to best build a top-notch fantasy team within the contest. As someone who has competed against the best players in the world and in several contests much like the FPC and the FFPC, I fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can make all the difference in the world.

THE TE PPR BONUS RULE

Under the microscope this time around is the special PPR rule for tight ends. According to the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the tight end PPR rule is as follows:

Roster/Scoring:

• The scoring system gives 1 point per reception for running backs and wide receivers but also gives 1.5 points per reception for tight ends, putting extra weight to the tight end position.

So how do you analyze the impact of this 50% bonus for PPR rule for tight ends? Is it of huge importance or not? We need to dig into some numbers.

Let's start by taking a look at how many tight ends really rack up a big total of catches each season. Looking back at the past six years, the following table breaks down the tight ends down by the number of players with 40 or more catches, tiering them all the way to 80 or more receptions. The results are shown below in Table 1:

Table 1: Tight End Receptions in 2008 through 2018

Several key facts can be pulled from Table 1:

• Top tight ends are really top-heavy. Only three tight ends were able to break the 80-catch level in eight of the past eleven seasons and 2016 tied the 2011 record of four. At least one tight end in every season has hit the 80-catch mark, and it appears the elite fantasy options approach this number each season.
• "Very good" performers can be defined by the 60-catch mark. In six of the past eleven seasons, at least 10 tight ends achieved the 60-catch mark, which roughly correlates to a solid TE1. The interesting trend is that the past two seasons failed to have 10 or more tight ends reach this level.
• In all 11 seasons, a plateau hits at both 50 and 40 catches. Somewhere in the 50-ish catch range marks the end of TE1s and 40+ receptions define very good fantasy TE2 options. Looking over the six years (2011-2016) prior to the last two seasons, a trend emerges that in most years 16-20 tight ends get at least 50 receptions, with 30-50% of them failing to break 60. As mentioned earlier, the recent trend (2017 and 2018) left much to be desired from TE2 candidates.
• The last two seasons were down years for tight ends, similar to 2014. However, every other season since 2011 had at least 16 tight ends with 50+ receptions, which points to these three seasons being anomalies.

One of the key questions for 2019 is whether or not there will be so many "very good" tight ends to fill up that 60+ tier again this coming season. The same question was posed for last year, with disappointing performances across the position. Certainly, if a dozen or more tight ends wind up reaching that level it would be of great value to teams with two top performers on their roster (and likely both in the lineup due to the Dual-Flex rule).

Let's take a different angle on the above chart. Notice the "Bonus" column in Table 1. What that reflects are the extra fantasy points that a team receives over a normal PPR scoring format (one point per reception for tight ends). To get a better understanding of the impact of this bonus two additional tools were used - the Footballguys Draft Dominator and also some FPC ADP information.

The Draft Dominator is a nice tool to use to run some mock drafts and get a feel for not only how to draft but also to see about when typical players should be drafted (if everyone used VBD drafting). A typical 12 team, 20 round draft (with FPC starting lineups) was created, and the Draft Dominator calculated both VBD and also perform a complete mock draft. This was run twice, once with FPC scoring and once with typical PPR scoring (1 point for tight ends). Below in Table 2 is a summary of the fantasy point differences and VBD differences in the two formats:

Table 2: TE VBD and Fantasy Points Projections Comparison - 1.0 vs. 1.5 PPR

Based on Table 2, you can see that the tight end position is a premium in the FPC, from top to bottom of the list. The Top 8 tight ends (and 11 of the Top 13) all get a VBD bump of 20 or more points due to the extra bonus of 1.5 PPR scoring, with the elite (Top 3) getting over a 30-point premium in VBD valuation. So how does that translate to a draft? Let's take a look at where each one was selected in the two formats during the Draft Dominator mock drafts in Table 3:

Table 3: TE Mock Draft Results Comparison - 1.0 vs. 1.5 PPR

The top tight ends, as you might expect by the big boost to their VBD, all move up, including the Top 3 tight ends all in the first seven picks of the draft. That sounds extreme, but when you consider that (1) every team must start at least one tight end, and (2) the disparity between the Top 3 projected performances and the lower portion of the TE1 player pool, the difference is pretty dramatic. George Kittle (244 projected points) and Zach Ertz (246) are expected to outperform even TE4 Evan Engram (192) by over 50 points on the season, and by over 90 points to TE12 Vance McDonald (153). Also factoring in that tight ends can comprise one (or both) of the dual flex spots (which now brings in more than 12 tight ends for starting lineup consideration), the VBD disparity only increases. Aside from a few outliers, Table 3 screams that the 1.5 PPR rule for tight ends clearly increases the value of not only the top players at the position but also the entire tight end crop as a whole. Towards the latter stages of most FPC drafts, the Top 20 list of tight ends should be completely exhausted, as teams are securing their lower end TE1 starter and also trying either a committee approach or grabbing a strong backup (or possible flex starter).

The last question that really needs to be asked is how these mocks compare to real drafts. With the help of Clayton Gray here at Footballguys, we have pulled together some great ADP data based on early FPC drafts and created current ADP data for all of the top players. Table 4 takes that ADP and compares it to the 1.5 PPR mock:

Table 4: Tight End FPC Mock Pick vs. FFPC ADP Data

Interesting results when you compare the two drafts. FPC drafters do agree that the Top 3-4 tight ends are worth a premium, but not to the extent that the Draft Dominator would have you believe. Even with the Top 3 gone in the Top 21 picks according to the FFPC ADP, the Draft Dominator's suggestion of taking all three in the first seven picks clearly is asking a bit much. After the Top 4, the "normal recipe" of the FFPC kicks in, meaning that tight ends are going to go off the board 2-3 rounds earlier than even the Draft Dominator would suggest (aside from a few outliers). So there are two schools of thought this season - do you believe in the value of the Top 3 tight ends enough to take them no later than the second round? Or do you believe that value will be there for the later TE1 candidates (and to some extent TE2s with upside)? Those are the questions that beg an answer. It is clear that in either valuation method, the Top 10 tight ends are all gone by the end of Round 8 (or sooner), with several other tight ends pushing for similar Top 100 overall pick status. Based on Table 3 and spotting the best value, taking a Top 3 tight end in Round 2 is a great value proposition. Even after the TE1s are gone, strong value is still there in the Top 20-23 options for this coming season. Determining the tight ends to target in the TE2 range (TE13-24) will go a very long way if you can figure out which ones will hit that 50+ catch total this year, as historically a few of them should. Even if you miss out on those 50+ catch guys, most tight ends in the Top 20 should get 40+ catches, so targeting options in pass-heavy offenses or players with higher touchdown likelihoods looks like a very good option for a second tight end.

PARTING THOUGHTS

The common thought is that the 1.5 PPR scoring rule will create a significant advantage for tight end scoring, but the degree to which it matters varies widely with the talent level of the tight ends themselves. If a fantasy player grabs an 80+ catch tight end, he should have a significant advantage over other teams (about 20 catches per season for about half the league). That advantage is not as big as it might seem, yet based on the early 2019 FPC Draft ADP data we see that the tight ends are not going too early as they have in several of the past seasons, but rather offering up some value in the Top 3 options right out of the gate. After the Top 3 are long gone, the runs will still come, and all of the TE1s and most TE2s will be drafted several rounds earlier than many would expect. Why is that? It has to be the perception that tight ends in 1.5 PPR with two flex spots warrants taking a tight end (or two, or three) early is worth it, even at a premium. It is also true that the trend will be self-fulfilling, as the value of tight ends and the view that getting a big boost at the position validates taking tight ends early. Basically, the scoring and uniqueness of the format create a false sense of a need for tight ends, and a run on the position will occur at least once in every FPC draft as the inevitable streak of teams reaching for tight ends hits the draft. The reach problem is not that bad, however, if everyone agrees that they will do it - and that seems to be the trend across all 1.5 PPR leagues.

So how do you approach the tight end position, especially with 1.5 PPR scoring? Certainly running a few mocks and reviewing previous drafts are a good start in trying to figure out when to take a TE1. Grab one too soon and your team will be hurting in other spots, but wait too long and you will fall behind at a key starting position. My recommendation is to target any Top 3 tight end early if they slide beyond where they should (all three should be gone by the end of Round 2). Failure to take a Top 3 tight end will result in a reach for a lesser TE1 candidate in one of the first eight rounds of your draft, so it makes sense to bite the bullet and take a true top option in the second round. If you wait for a tight end (or even want a second one early), there will be some key rounds to target for this position. Based on the ADP of 2019 drafts, the reaching of 2-3 rounds due to the scoring premium (and that everyone wants to get their tight ends early) is far more palatable after Round 8. Taking your top TE2 (or two) in Round 9 instead of Round 12 is not too expensive, especially with a TE1 and 6-7 running back and wide receivers already on your fantasy squad. At this point of the draft you should have your starters at running back and wide receiver, along with 1-2 flex options at the position and a top tight end, so taking another tight end at that point does not cost you your true studs with your first picks.

As a second thought to getting the best tight end value, keep an eye out for any tight ends that are slipping down in Rounds 10-12. Grabbing a strong TE2 can give a fantasy squad excellent depth and versatility under the Dual-Flex rule and also back up a key starting position. Lots of tight ends appear to have solid secondary (TE2 / flex) value this coming season, so do not be afraid to grab a TE2 and a TE3 in the second half of your drafts.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions. and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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