This week I look at which quarterbacks are HOT over the last three weeks (FanDuel scoring). I researched their expected outcomes based on schedule strength and defensive efficiency rankings for the rest of the season including the playoffs. I'll let you know which quarterbacks will get you where you want to be and which ones may face a tougher road ahead.
The Top 15 quarterback rankings are taking form after six weeks of action. Do you see any surprises over the last three games? DeShaun Watson is #1 and Kirk Cousins jumped up to #8. Staying the course is Matt Ryan #2 and Russell Wilson #3. Some notable drops include Patrick Mahomes II 7th and Dak Prescott 11th. Where is Baker Mayfield? He is 17th. Take a look at the highlighted numbers on the image above. These accentuate the high-end results of each category. Also interesting is the age column which shows seven of the Top 15 are age 25 or younger and five are 30 or older.
TOP 10 QUARTERBACKS OVERVIEW and outlook
Deshaun Watson, HOU: Even though Watson had a sub-par game in Week 4 against Carolina, his Week 5 and 6 more than made up for it. He had 9 total touchdowns in this span, with eight of those coming in the last two weeks against Atlanta and at Kansas City - both wins where the team scored 53 and 31 points. Looking ahead, Houston has six favorable defenses in the next seven games which is music to the ears of those who spent a fairly high draft pick on him. The only downside is a tough stretch that includes Tennessee and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15 and 16. That may sound like a good matchup, but both teams are projected as tough or neutral teams against the pass. Tennessee has allowed only one 300-yard passer and they have held their opponent to 1 touchdown pass or less three times. Tampa Bay is expected to be a middle of the road pass defense for Houston. The hardest game Watson may have the rest of the year is vs New England in Week 13.
Matt Ryan, ATL: Matt Ryan's fantasy performance to date has largely been the result of garbage time yards and scores. He leads the league with 15 touchdown passes and 258 pass attempts (43 per game). In fantasy, all points count the same, so regardless of Ryan's 1-5 start, he's a fantasy winner. Atlanta has only three tough matchups against the pass the rest of the way - at Carolina Week 11, vs Carolina Week 14, and at San Francisco Week 15. The Falcons defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Ryan is good enough to secure plenty of second-half scoring chances and yards. He leads the league with 1,205 passing yards in the second half which also includes 11 of his 15 touchdown passes.
Russell Wilson, SEA: Russell Wilson scored 8 total touchdowns in the last three weeks against two decent teams against the pass, Los Angeles (Rams) and Cleveland. He still has five more tough matchups against the pass (six if you count San Francisco in Week 17). Wilson is an early MVP candidate leading the Seahawks to a 5-1 record with Wilson reaching 17 total touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Some might say Seattle has only played one tough opponent, New Orleans, which was their lone loss. Other than New Orleans, their opponents are 7-16-1, and yet Seattle only has a +19 point differential, which is 11th best in the league. Looking ahead, Wilson has four favorable matchups against the pass against Baltimore (Week 7), at Atlanta (Week 8), at Philadelphia (Week 12), and Arizona (Week 16). Regardless of the opponent, Wilson has shown he can produce and be a versatile threat. The loss of his tight end Will Dissly will hurt, but Wilson will adapt and find new options. Based on his previous play and past experience, Wilson should once again be a Top 10 quarterback, likely much higher. He has finished in the Top 10 every year, except his rookie campaign.
Lamar Jackson, BAL: The good news about Jackson is what he has accomplished so far - 13 total touchdowns, 1,500 yards passing and 460 yards rushing. He has dropped off some over the last three games, but overall, he is ranked #1 this season. The bad news is the Ravens schedule to finish the year. Baltimore has one favorable opponent against the pass to finish the year (at Cincinnati Week 10). He still needs to play at Seattle, New England, Houston, at Los Angeles, San Francisco, at Buffalo, NY Jets, at Cleveland and home vs Pittsburgh. It may not be a bad idea to try to trade Jackson while he is hot. He's also healthy. Does he have the endurance to keep up a 3,500-yard passing and 1,000-yard rushing season? That's debatable, but many will argue against it.
Kyler Murray, ARI: The #1 overall pick has shown that he can pass (three 300-yard games) and run (238 yards rushing - 2nd in the league) on a team with the fourth-most pass attempts in the league. Arizona plays a fast-paced game, which means more plays will be run, which favors Murray. Arizona has seven favorable opponents against the pass in 2019 and they have already played four of them. After Week 8 they have only two games remaining (vs Pittsburgh Week 14) and at Seattle (Week 16) that are remotely favorable - and even then it's not the best matchup. Murray has been lightning in a bottle so far, but his schedule and potential to drop off seem like a more likely scenario. If he continues to play well in the next two weeks (at NY Giants, at New Orleans), it may be wise to unload him for a needed piece to your lineup.
Jameis Winston, TB: Like Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston has benefited from garbage time production. In the last four weeks, Tampa Bay has lost three games scoring 31, 55, 24, and 26 points while allowing 32, 40, 31, and 37. Recently, their games have favored the passing game script. Tampa Bay has seven tough matchups against the pass, and they have already played four of them. Starting Week 9 they have six good matchups, and just two tough ones. The only downside is those tough matchups are Week 15 and 16 at Detroit and vs Houston respectively. Conventional thinking suggests to ride Winston and potentially trade him later in the season, preferably right before the playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes II, KC: A regression was expected from Patrick Mahomes II in 2019. It's virtually impossible to come close to matching 5,000 yards and 50 touchdown passes. He has tossed 14 touchdowns with only 1 interception this year, but for a two-game stretch in Weeks 4 and 5 he had only 1 touchdown pass. The return of his go-to receiver, Tyreek Hill, will give a boost to his numbers and keep him a strong fantasy quarterback. Mahomes is good enough to produce against any opponent, but looking ahead, Kansas City has four tough passing defenses on their schedule in Green Bay (Week 8), at Tennessee (Week 10), at New England (Week 14), and at Chicago (Week 16). Those two tough games in Weeks 14 and 16 are problematic and it wouldn't be a bad idea to consider trading away Mahomes for two key pieces in your lineup. Or you can keep him and take your chances that he can produce when you need him most.
Kirk Cousins, MIN - Cousins started off slowly this season, but he has turned it on recently to the tune of 6 touchdown passes and back to back 300-yard games against NFC East opponents New York and Philadelphia (both favorable matchups against the pass). Minnesota has seven games against favorable pass defenses and they have already played four of them. The only ones remaining include Washington (Week 8), Denver (Week 11), and at Los Angeles Chargers (Week 15). For the playoffs, Cousins has two tough matchups vs Detroit (Week 14) and vs Green Bay (Week 16). It's possible that Cousins will turn the corner thanks to his recent performance, but with six more tough matchups, the opposite may be true.
Aaron Rodgers, GB: Aaron Rodgers has fallen off the Top 5 pedestal and has now only topped 3 touchdown passes in a game two times in the last 22 games, including none in 2019. The loss of Davante Adams has hurt his stock this season, but he ranks #7 in the last three games and #14 overall this season. Is it time to give up on Rodgers as a yearly fantasy juggernaut? Quite possibly, yes. He is still one of the best fundamentally sound quarterbacks in the league who can orchestrate a comeback and produce top yards any given week. The Packers are 5-1 so far with a so-so Rodgers. They have six more games against tough passing defenses with four favorable pass defenses on their schedule. Looking at the playoffs, Green Bay plays Washington, Chicago, and at Minnesota during Weeks 14, 15, and 16. Chicago and Minnesota represent tough matchups. He will need to have more three-touchdown games in order to meet expectations, but that has been missing from his game over the last two years. Rodgers is becoming an average fantasy quarterback, and at best, above average. Can he still win your league? Perhaps, but he could also be the reason keeping you from hoisting the trophy.
Carson Wentz, PHI: Carson Wentz has two 300-yard games and two sub-200 yard games. He has been consistently finishing in the Top 18 every game this season but has not finished higher than 10th any week. The Eagles are 3-3 and Wentz has 13 total touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. He is on the border of the Top 10 and Philadelphia has nine games against tough pass defenses, of which they have already played four. If you can get past Week 11 vs New England, Philadelphia has a favorable schedule for the playoff stretch, starting with at Miami Week 13, NY Giants Week 14, at Washington Week 15, and vs Dallas Week 16.
pre-emptive waiver claim rankings week 7
Last Week
- Either one of Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson WR, NYJ - the return of Sam Darnold will elevate their game.
- Hunter Henry TE, LAC - He'll be back soon and Los Angeles could use him on offense.
- DeSean Jackson WR, PHI - Looked great with Wentz in Week 1. Should be back soon from his abdominal injury.
- Devin Singletary RB, BUF - Has bye this week and faces Miami Week 7. Will push Frank Gore for more carries.
- Golden Tate or Darius Slayton WR, NYG - The injury to Sterling Shepard will mean more snaps for both. Tate has the edge in experience and pedigree.
- Buffalo Defense DEF, BUF - The Bills have a bye this week, so someone may drop them. They face Miami Week 7 and 11 and Washington Week 9. Also, look for Chicago Defense (on bye Week 6).
- Chase Edmonds RB, ARI - He plays Atlanta this week and would be a weekly starter with injury to David Johnson. Already has marginal value
- Byron Pringle WR, KC - Pringle played the Sammy Watkins role for the Chiefs in Week 5. Tyreek Hill's return could diminish Pringle's role, but his effort shouldn't be ignored.
- Mark Walton RB, MIA - Miami is looking for any edge they can get, and right now Kalen Ballage isn't the answer. Look for Walton to get a look soon.
- Reggie Bonnafon RB, CAR - Christian McCaffrey is the gold standard, but Bonnafon looks to be the clear backup if he's ever needed.
- Cole Beasley WR, BUF - The Bills traded Zay Jones to Oakland, which leaves John Brown and Beasley as the two top-producing wide receivers on the team. Buffalo faces Miami Week 7, Philadelphia Week 8 and Washington Week 9 - all home games.
- Latavius Murray RB, NO - This is all about the unknown status of Alvin Kamara (knee). If Kamara misses time, Murray becomes a player of interest who vaults into fantasy lineups. He scored last week but it was negated due to a penalty. His time is coming and this opportunity in front of him could be the spark he needs to make some noise this season.
- Jamaal Williams RB, GB - Aaron Jones is going to have to deal with Jamaal Williams being a part of the Packers ground game. Jones had a crucial drop in Week 6
- Demaryius Thomas WR, NYJ - Thomas benefits from Sam Darnold's return and last week he had 81% of offensive snaps. The Jets' use of a three-wide receiver formation has increased with Darnold under center, making Thomas a viable option as the team's other wideout opposite Robby Anderson.
- Darrell Henderson RB, LAR - He has breakout speed and quickness with excellent hands to be a weapon as a receiver. The injury to Todd Gurley has opened things up for Henderson. He needs more reps, but the talent is there.
- Chris Herndon TE, NYJ - Herndon (hamstring), may not be back until Week 8 or 9, but it looks like the tight end position will be visible in the Jets offense. He could prove to be effective for the stretch run if he hits.
- Benny Snell RB, PIT - James Conner (quad) and Jaylen Samuels (knee) has opened the door for Benny Snell to get more snaps. Pittsburgh has a bye this week, and Conner could come back healthy for Week 8 (vs. Miami), but if he's not, Snell could have a nice matchup.
- Rhett Ellison TE, NYG - The Giants play Arizona this week and Evan Engram (knee) may not be back for a primo matchup against the struggling Cardinals defense against the tight end.
- Tarik Cohen RB, CHI - The Bears top PPR back is ranked 47th, but is second on the team in targets. He may be available on the waiver wire. With Mitchell Trubisky hopefully coming back after the Week 6 bye, Cohen could see a bump in opportunities. They face New Orleans, Los Angeles Chargers, and at Philadelphia in the next three weeks.
- Dante Pettis WR, SF - Pettis, now healthy, saw his snaps reach 72% last week which was his highest this year and the highest in Week 6. The 49ers are dealing with injuries on the OL and may need to pass more. If so, Pettis could see increased opportunities.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
