SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions
There are some weather issues that have popped up over the last few hours that need to be addressed.
Kansas City vs Denver- 5-7 Inches of Snow over the next 36 hours.
This is a situation that to me seems scarier than what it really is. Being from Chicago, and having a large history of weather data stored away (more on that in the future), light snow changes absolutely nothing. That's what I would consider this as it is coming down at 0.2 inches per hour if it is consistent. Now if I see blizzard conditions right before the game it will change things. Something to continue to monitor. The passing game was not something I was targeting anyway, and Lindsay is really the only guy that I love in this one so it likely is no change for me.
Dolphins vs Giants- 15MPH winds.
I've gotten a few questions on whether I'm still on Eli Manning due to the wind and the answer is yes. The Vegas total hasn't changed since Thursday when Daniel Jones was ruled out indicating Vegas is not worried about it, and wind doesn't really start playing a significant factor until 20MPH or more. If there's a player it might hurt it would be Darius Slayton as it lowers his chances for a long pass.
No change to the primary cash lineup. Rolling with what we got.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- San Francisco (vs ATL) – 28.75 points
- Kansas City (vs Denver) – 28 points
- Seattle (vs Car) – 27.25 points
- Tennessee (vs Hou) – 26.25 points
- Tampa Bay (vs Det) – 25.75 points
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK-
Last week, the runs of easy cashes came to an end as we fell well below the cash game line.
What went right?
Short answer, not much. There's simply no excuse, it was one of those weeks where we just did not have the right solution. Some of it was the analysis was wrong, some of it was injuries, some of it was game script/garbage time of some other players, but there's no excuse. We move on to next week.
What went wrong-
- Mike Evans in the first quarter of the Tampa Bay game scored a 68-yard touchdown on his first catch. If you didn’t play last week, you’re probably thinking, “what went wrong”, what went wrong was that he suffered a hamstring injury on that play and missed the rest of the game.
- Lamar Jackson had one of his worst performances of the season as he finished as the 11th best quarterback with just 20.80 fantasy points. The problem was that Deshaun Watson who was cheaper and higher owned put up 30.80 points. I don’t want to call this lucky, but I’m going to call it lucky for anyone who started Watson. Watson and the Texans were down 31-3 at half-time and got to face a prevent defense the entire second half which he took advantage of as most quarterbacks do.
- Right team, wrong running back. Heading into last week, Melvin Gordon was one of my top plays of the day, and for the most part, he wasn’t bad last week as he averaged 4.6 yards-per-carry caught five passes and scored a touchdown. The problem was that Austin Ekeler was dominant as he had 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving seemingly gaining big yards every time he touched the ball which limited Gordon to just 12 carries.
- Playing Davante Adams over DeAndre Hopkins looks foolish in hindsight. Adams and the Packers were mostly shut-down by Washington in a sloppy game on both sides of the ball. Hopkins's stat line was more impressive than his actual game as, like Watson, he had a monster second-half led with 80 yards and a touchdown.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 15
Quarterback Dilemma
With no Lamar Jackson this week and Patrick Mahomes II struggling a little bit, the quarterback position is a little less clear than normal.
There are a few players who are in play this week on FanDuel.
- Ryan Tannehill- $7,600: I never thought in writing this article this season that Ryan Tannehill would be in cash consideration, but here we are. The reality is that Tannehill has been almost perfect for most of the season and has scored 18 FanDuel points or more in every game except one this season. The matchup could not be better for Tannehill this week going up against a Houston secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points on the year to opposing quarterbacks and is coming off of back to back 300+ yard 3 touchdown performances to Drew Lock and Tom Brady. They have allowed 7 300-yard passers on the season and allowed 7 quarterbacks to throw for 3 touchdowns or more in a game. Derrick Henry is also questionable which if he were to miss would put more volume in the hands of Tannehill as the team would turn to Dion Lewis as the running back.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick- $7,300: The Giants secondary this season has been an absolute mess, and Ryan Fitzpatrick as we know is just going out and throwing the ball trying to compete with a Brett Favre gunslinger type attitude. The Giants cut their only viable corner in Janoris Jenkins this week which will ultimately leave two rookies on the outside in Deandre Baker and Sam Beal both of which have been close to the worst cornerbacks in football this season.
- Kyler Murray- $7,600: Kyler Murray is getting a lot of love this week as the Cardinals take on the Browns, and the reality is I’m not sure why in cash. Murray is a fine GPP play, but for me this week his floor is simply too low. The Browns are one of the only teams that have not allowed a 300-yard passer, are the last team to beat Lamar Jackson and the Ravens holding Lamar to just 66 yards rushing and no touchdowns, and Murray has just three games where he has run for over 40 yards and has scored just four rushing touchdowns on the year while passing for under 200 yards in three straight games. The Browns will likely be able to neutralize Christian Kirk’s speed with Denzel Ward who is one of the fastest cornerbacks in football.
- Eli Manning- $6,800: This week seems to be the week of below-average quarterbacks who are in great spots and Eli Manning is no different. Much like the Giants secondary, the Dolphins secondary is one of the worst in football as their entire starting secondary and their backup cornerbacks are out from the beginning of the season as Minkah Fitzpatrick was traded and Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones, Ken Webster, Ryan Lewis, Ken Crawley, Cordrea Tankersley, Aqib Talib, and Bobby McCain are all on injured reserve. This leaves three undrafted players who are all in their first season playing in Nik Needham, Jomal Wiltz, and Nate Brooks who has never played a down in the NFL as the starting corners for Miami. This is a disaster situation for the Dolphins this week. Manning has never been great, but we know he is going to throw 35+ times this week and in what might be his last home game in New York is likely going to put up a great performance.
- DeShaun Watson- $8,200: Watson is going to be somewhat popular going up against a Tennessee defense that has been middle of the road when it comes to stopping the pass. The recency bias is there that the people who played Watson last week are going to be drawn to him again which was about 40% of the crowd. The problem with Watson is that outside of the garbage-time performance last week, he has not been running much as of late which is where he gets so much of his value. Watson in his three games before last week had run the ball an average of 3 times per game for just 7 yards per game. If Watson is not running he has a tough time paying off his salary as he is going to need 300 yards and 3 touchdowns which is something he has done just twice this season. Essentially, you’re relying on him to have a rushing touchdown which he has just two games with rushing touchdowns since Week 4. The upside is there, but at that price is a better GPP play than a cash game play.
Answer: They’re all fantastic plays, but this week, I’m going with Eli Manning as my cash game play simply because of the savings, the volume, and the Dolphins rolling out a secondary that is woefully inexperienced and under-talented. Eli Manning should have a tremendous day and get back to a career .500 record.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
A large number of injuries this week
- D.J. Chark will miss this week with an ankle injury which will open up plenty of opportunities for both Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley this week against the Raiders who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game on the year.
- Derrick Henry is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. He says he is going to play but was unable to practice all week which is a major concern. If he is unable to go, Dion Lewis would see the majority of the playing time and be an interesting play this week at just $4,700.
- Adam Thielen looks like he’s playing as he is dealing with a hamstring injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. It’s a tough matchup and likely an avoid this week until we see how well he does, but the price is decent at $7,300.
- Alexander Mattison is out with an ankle injury which should give more volume to Dalvin Cook as well as Kirk Cousins and the passing game. It’s a tough matchup against the Chargers, but Cook could be an interesting play in a 100-person contest.
- Josh Jacobs is still dealing with a shoulder injury, but it looks like he is going to play this week. The matchup is fantastic against the Jaguars who were shredded by Austin Ekeler last week, but it’s difficult to know how the split will be with Jacobs, not 100%. If Jacobs were to miss, DeAndre Washington would be one of the top options this week.
- Greg Olsen is out which once again should make Ian Thomas a viable cheap option at the tight end position.
- Will Fuller is questionable with a hamstring injury. If Fuller can go, this would greatly help Deshaun Watson and the passing game and likely help Ryan Tannehill very slightly on the other side of the ball as it increases the chance of a potential shootout.
- Mike Evans is out with a hamstring injury.
- Alson Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are both out. This leaves the Eagles with very little options in the receiving game which puts both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert as two of the top plays at the tight end position against the Redskins in a must-win game.
- Rashaad Penny is out for the year with a torn ACL leaving which is a major boost to Chris Carson this week.
- Gerald Everett remains out with a knee injury. This should leave Tyler Higbee in a tremendous spot to continue his recent trend which he has over 100 yards in each of his last two games.
KEY CASH CORE
Chris Carson- $7,400
No team has fallen as hard and as quickly as the Carolina Panthers have against the run, but the reality is they are unable to stop any team this year. On the season, they are allowing the most points to opposing running backs at 28.2 FanDuel points per game and are allowing 1.6 touchdowns per game to running backs and 5.3 yards-per-carry. With Rashaad Penny out for the year with a torn ACL, this should leave Chris Carson plenty of opportunities to have another 20+ carry game as he has done in 7 games this season and reach over 100 yards which he has done 5 times on the year. At just $7,400 he should be the most popular player on this slate and for good reason.
Christian McCaffrey- $10,400
If you read the quite long quarterback decision section and that we are going to spend down at the position this week. The big reason for this is looking at Christian McCaffrey once again as McCaffrey’s price has come down by $600 compared to last week. This is largely due to the fact that he hasn’t scored a touchdown in two consecutive weeks. With no Greg Olsen, McCaffrey has seen a larger number of targets over the last two weeks as he has 12 targets in each of the last two games including 11 receptions last week against Atlanta. Seattle’s defense is a middle of the road defense and with the Panthers expected to be behind, expect McCaffrey to once again see a large number of targets this week and find the end-zone once again.
Zach Ertz- $6,700
With Alshon Jeffery being out, no player has benefitted more than Zach Ertz. The last three games that Jeffery has missed, Ertz has seen 13 targets, 14 targets, and 11 targets, with 90 yards or more in each of those 3 games, and 3 touchdowns. In a must-win game against the Redskins, Carson Wentz is going to go back to his top target especially with Nelson Agholor out as well this week.
KEY FADE
Saquon Barkley- $8,300
At some point in the season, we just have to realize that it is not going to happen this year for Saquon Barkley. He came out this week and finally admitted that he was less than 100% and he just does not have the speed or burst that we saw last season. If there is a weakness of Barkley it has always been his vision and the negative yards that he has taken which has haunted him back to college. He set that aside last year running hard on nearly every play taking the 2-3 yard gains, but this year there are far too many runs in which he is stopped at the line or behind the line as he is trying to make the spectacular play that we saw last year. The matchup is good, but he has had several great matchups this season and has not scored a touchdown since October, and has reached value since October having done it just twice all season. This is a clear fade this week.
Narrative Special
Larry Fitzgerald- $5,700
This is likely Larry Fitzgerald’s last game in Arizona as there are talks of retirement from the Hall of Fame receiver. The Cardinals have nothing to play for as they are 3-9-1, and will likely try to do everything they can to get Fitzgerald into the end-zone one last time. Fitzgerald has just 3 touchdowns on the year but does have 13 targets in the red zone, so there are packages and plays for the receiver. With Christian Kirk drawing somewhat of a tough matchup against Denzel Ward, Fitzgerald should be in a good spot against T.J. Carrie this week to have a big performance. He’s not cash game viable, but a solid GPP play.
LINEUPS
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.4)
- QB Eli Manning, NYG, $6,800
- RB Chris Carson, SEA, $7,400
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR, $10,400
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,900
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $6,800
- WR Chris Conley, JAX, $5,100
- TE Zach Ertz, PHI, $6,700
- Flex RB- Phillip Lindsay, DEN, $6,400
- TD Arizona Cardinals, $3,500
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Lineup 2 (Higher risk) Ryan Tannehill Cash Lineup 2 Tight Ends (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.1)
- QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN, $7,600
- RB Chris Carson, SEA, $7,400
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR, $10,40
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,900
- WR A.J. Brown, Ten, $6,200
- WR Chris Conley, JAX, $5,100
- TE Zach Ertz, PHI, $6,700
- Flex RB- Darren Waller, OAK, $6,200
- TD Arizona Cardinals, $3,500
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Cash+ HOU/TEN Game Stack (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.2)
- QB Ryan Tannehill, Ten, $7,600
- RB RB- Phillip Lindsay, $6,400
- RB Chris Carson, SEA, $7,400
- WR- DeAndre Hopkins, HOU $8,600
- WR A.J. Brown, TEN $6,200
- WR Darius Slayton, NYG $6,300
- TE Darren Waller, OAK, $6,200
- Flex RB- Leonard Fournette, Jax, $7,700
- TD Arizona Cardinals, $3,500
Any questions on your cash game lineup or feedback on the article? Send me a message on Twitter below.
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