SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday around 11:30 AM EST, this article will be updated based on any surprise inactive or just news in general that is updated throughout the week. It will have the latest recommended cash game lineup included as well.
The more I think about this, the more I think about the true upside of Russell Wilson this week. He's incredibly safe, but that also means that you're banking on Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson to have poor games who will be the most popular cash game quarterbacks. With that said, I'm shifting the cash game lineup to want a piece of the upside.
Final Roster
- QB Deshaun Watson, Hou, $8,400
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAX, $7,900
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $8,300
- WR Tyler Boyd, CIN, $5,600
- WR D.J. Chark, Jax, $6,600
- WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI $5,600
- TE Evan Engram, NYG, $6,800
- Flex RB- Latavius Murray, NO, $5,300
- TD Buffalo Bills, $5,500
Feel free to reach out to me Follow @ohiostate241 if you have any questions or want to talk lineups this week.
Also, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison are both active, essentially making Allen Lazard not fantasy viable this week.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Los Angeles Rams (vs ATL) – 29.25 points
- Buffalo (vs MIA) – 28.75 points
- New York Giants (vs ARI) – 26.75 points
- Green Bay (vs OAK) – 26.25 points
- Atlanta (vs LAR) – 26.25 points
STRATEGY THIS WEEK- ACCEPTING THE CHALK IN CASH
Far too often when reading articles or listening to podcasts/videos, we hear talk about ownership projections. The reality is that while ownership projections are important in a GPP format, in cash games we should be utilizing ownership projections in a different way. In a cash game format, what you want to do is to be able to recognize the players that are going to be extremely popular as you then have to make a tough decision on that player. For example, in weeks where Christian McCaffrey is 50%+ owned, as you’re building your lineup you have to determine whether or not you want your entire week to be determined by one player. Often times it is better to just put the chalk player in your lineup and try to differentiate elsewhere as there is a reason that they are the chalk player whether they are a great value or a great player in a great opportunity.
Below is Devin Knotts' cash game strategy for Week 5 as well as his cash game lineup.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 5
SOME OF THE SITUATIONS TO BE THINKING ABOUT ARE BELOW
- The running quarterbacks seem to be hitting value nearly every week due to the timing of when they run for a touchdown. In every game that Deshaun Watson has thrown for less than 300 yards in, he has scored a rushing touchdown. In the two games that Kyler Murray threw for less than 300 yards and no touchdowns he ran for a rushing touchdown. Lamar Jackson is similar to Murray in that the two games he threw for less than 300 yards with no touchdowns he ran for a touchdown.
It brings up the ultimate question, are these performances sustainable? Watson, Murray and Jackson all theoretically have a floor in which they have less than 250 yards and no rushing touchdowns. The problem is that avoiding these players can kill your bankroll waiting for a week that it may come. At this point with the NFL changing to a more running quarterback style, we need to accept that these players are cash game plays every week.
- At the running back position, this is an interesting week. With no Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, and Austin Ekeler no longer in the role he once was with Melvin Gordon back you have seven of the top 12 running backs this season either not on the main slate, hurt, or in a different role. This limits the amount of viable options this week as the middle group is not palatable in cash, so it is either spend all the way up, or go below $6k.
- The wide receiver position continues to be the most difficult position to project this season. The top end players who we have come to expect to have consistent performances have had anything but as Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen and many more are all having down years compared to expectations. It seems like a week just to pay down at wide receiver as there are a number of players in good positions who are cheap. D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyler Boyd, Golden Tate, Will Fuller, John Brown are all cheap and in a great spot this week.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
This week several injuries are potentially game-changing on how to approach this slate.
- Saquon Barkley appears ready to go this week as he had his injury designation removed prior to the game against Arizona. At $8,600, Barkley is expensive, but is one of the more safe options on this slate as Arizona has allowed 100 total yards to opposing running backs in each of the last four weeks.
- Sterling Shepard will not be cleared prior to this game as he is still dealing with a concussion. This should open up plenty of opportunity for Evan Engram this week who missed last week with a sprained MCL, but will play this week against Arizona. The matchup could not be any better for Engram this week as he is facing an Arizona defense that has allowed an average of 100 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends including allowing 117 yards and a touchdown last week to Austin Hooper.
- Alvin Kamara will miss this week with an ankle injury. At just $5,300 this puts Latavius Murray in contention for the best value play on FanDuel this week. The problem is the matchup as Chicago has a vaunted defense, but did look susceptible with Akiem Hicks going down in their last game as they allowed 123 yards and two touchdowns to Josh Jacobs. If you need the salary relief this week, Murray should be the safest guy on the board below $5,500.
- The Packers receiving corp is a mess at the moment as Davante Adams is out and both Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are questionable, but looking more doubtful than questionable at this point. At the tight end position, the Packers are also banged up as Jimmy Graham looks like he will play, but is dealing with an ankle injury and receiving tight end Robert Tonyan Jr remains out. This will open up opportunity for Allen Lazard who Aaron Rodgers pleaded the coaching staff to bring into the game last week and saw 5 targets on just 17 snaps last week. At minimum price, Lazard opens up a lot of opportunity to build the rest of the lineup this week.
- David Johnson is a game-time decision this week with a back-injury. While he probably will suit up, if for some reason we hear otherwise before lineup lock, Chase Edmunds would slide in as a fantastic play this week as Edmunds can do a lot of the things that Johnson can also do and at just $5,500 in a high-scoring game against the Giants should be a must-start if Johnson is out.
KEY STRATEGY OF THE WEEK
Playing the Right Quarterback
This week, quarterback is going to be the key to the slate. There are upwards of seven quarterbacks who are cash game viable (Watson, Wilson, Jackson, Goff, Allen, Murray, Ryan). Here is the criteria that I’m using to determine my cash game plays this week. All seven quarterbacks have their justification and reasoning for whether we should play them so if you feel strongly about one that is being eliminated, play that guy there is no reason not to.
1) With no 300 yard bonus on FanDuel, eliminate the quarterbacks who do not have rushing upside. (Goff/Ryan)
2) Eliminate any quarterbacks playing on the road (Murray, Watson, Jackson)
3) Eliminate the quarterback who game script could play a factor. (Allen)
This leaves Russell Wilson as the quarterback for cash this week. Wilson has a high floor, but also a high ceiling and is facing a Baltimore defense that in the three games where they have faced competent quarterbacks allowed 349 yards to Kyler Murray, 374 yards to Patrick Mahomes II, and 342 yards to Baker Mayfield. Wilson has 14 touchdowns to 0 interceptions on the year and is a leading MVP candidate at home. The one problem with Wilson is that he does not have the upside that some of the other quarterbacks due to the lack of volume in his pass
The other quarterback to consider is Deshaun Watson this week as he has been better on the road than he has at home. However, this is time for Russell Wilson to have a great game against Baltimore.
KEY CASH CORE
The Lions have one of the worst linebacking groups in the NFL this season which has ultimately led them to give up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. In their five games this season, the Lions have allowed a running back to gain 125 or more total yards four times and the only time they prevented this was against Kansas City who had their split backfield of Darrell Williams and LeSean McCoy gain 145 total yards and three touchdowns. Dalvin Cook has been one of if not the best running backs in the NFL this season, and is in a prime matchup to make for a long day for this Detroit defense.
Buffalo Defense
The Bills defense is expensive at $5,500, but the Dolphins are going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback which does limit the defenses upside a little bit compared to Josh Rosen, the Bills are still one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are top 3 in turnovers and sacks per game, and have scored just 8.4 points per game. This is a prime spot for the Bills to score 10 or more points even without scoring a defensive touchdown.
Hunter Henry is also a fantastic play this week, but the upside of Evan Engram is too great to pass up. As we mentioned earlier, Arizona is averaging 100 yards to opposing tight ends and with Sterling Shepard out Engram will be the number one target for Daniel Jones this week.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 136.9)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $8,500
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAX, $7,900
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $8,300
- WR Tyler Boyd, CIN, $5,600
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $6,500
- WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI $5,600
- TE Evan Engram, NYG, $6,800
- Flex RB- Latavius Murray, NO, $5,300
- TD Buffalo Bills, $5,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – ALTERNATIVE CASH LINEUP ARI vs NYG GAME STACK (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 134.8)
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $7,700
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $8,600
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN $8,300
- WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, $5,600
- WR Tyler Boyd, CIN, $5,600
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $6,500
- TE Evan Engram, NYG, $6,800
- Flex RB- Latavius Murray, NO, $5,300
- TD Buffalo Bills, $5,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ Josh Allen Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 137.7)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $7,700
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAX, $7,900
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN $8,300
- WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, $5,600
- WR Allen Lazard, GB, $4,500
- WR John Brown, BUF, $5,900
- TE Evan Engram, NYG, $6,800
- Flex RB- Chris Carson, SEA, $7,600
- TD Buffalo Bills, $5,500
Any questions on your cash game lineup or feedback on the article? Send me a message on Twitter below.