Sunday Morning Update
This article is updated every Sunday Morning with any changes or news that may break that has changed any perspective in this article. The Sunday Morning update will be listed at the top of this article under this header.
Over the last 24 hours, one player that I have become less interested in over the last 24 hours is Nick Chubb. The matchup is a tough one, and I'm a believer that this offense is going to throw a lot today.
Updated Lineup-
- Russell Wilson
- Austin Ekeler
- Christian McCaffrey
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Keenan Allen
- Marquise Brown
- Will Dissly
- Kerryon Johnson
- Seahawks D
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Kansas City (vs Det) – 30.25 points
- Los Angeles Chargers (vs Mia) – 29.75 points
- Los Angeles Rams (vs TB) – 29.25 points
- Seattle (vs Ari) – 27 points
BANKROLL STRATEGY- Dealing with Overlap
We typically see this type of week once or twice per season where it is difficult to find an edge as the optimal lineup seems incredibly clear for cash games. With all of the Chargers injuries, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and to a lesser extent Dontrelle Inman are going to be extremely popular in cash games this week. With such a high percentage of the plays going through those Allen and Ekeler, it makes it difficult to fade either of those players.
The season is only 17 weeks long, so it is hard to say sit out a week, but this is a week in cash that you should ultimately be careful. Joining high dollar contests does not make a lot of sense as anyone playing the higher dollar amounts is likely to go similar routes as what you going this week. The recommendation this week is to put an extra emphasis on trying to identify casual players. If you can play single entry double-ups or low dollar head to heads against people that you are unfamiliar with, this is a great way to hopefully get some sort of edge as there will be some people who do not play both Ekeler and Allen.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 3
We have started this segment by stating that each of the past three weeks are “interesting”. This week is anything but interesting and the best word to describe it is dangerous and we don’t mean Baker Mayfield’s definition of dangerous. It is dangerous, as the lineup builds are going to be so incredibly similar that a lot of your cash games will be three on three or four on four matchups which often is less than ideal as the matchup can often be decided by one or two plays or a
SOME OF THE SITUATIONS TO BE THINKING ABOUT ARE BELOW
- So far this season, the cash game answer has been pretty consistent as we have recommended Patrick Mahomes II every week. While this will never be a bad strategy, there are two other quarterbacks in play this week on FanDuel. Without the 300 yard passing bonus, this gives some extra emphasis on the ability to run the ball. Jackson possesses the rushing and passing ability that Jackson has shown the last two weeks as he has run for either 100 yards or a touchdown in the last two weeks while still throwing for 267 yards or more in each of his three games this year.
- The other quarterback to consider is Russell Wilson. Without a reliable running game in Seattle, they are shifting their offense a little bit to more of a pass-heavy approach. Over the last two weeks, Wilson has thrown for 300 yards or more and a combined 5 touchdowns. He has continued to show he can run the ball when needed as well, rushing for two touchdowns last week. Wilson is in a fantastic matchup this week against one of the league’s worst defense in Arizona and should be able to have another monster game as long as the game remains close.
- Christian McCaffrey is an interesting case this week as outside of the Thursday Night game against Tampa Bay, he has been extremely consistent this year. The price is a heavy one at $9,000, but he is in a bit of a tough matchup against a Houston defensive line that has looked great this year holding opponents to back to back 55 yard or fewer games rushing. With right guard Trai Turner looking like he might be out, this is a concern heading into this week.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY
- Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams both remain unlikely to play for the Browns this week. Ultimately, this unlocks a significant amount of opportunity for Marquise Brown. Brown will see a lot of Terrance Mitchell in this game and have what should be the best speed advantage he has seen all season. Mitchell ran a 4.6 40-yard dash in 2014, while Marquise Brown who did not participate in the combine due to injury has been quoted in the 4.2-4.3 range. This will be a tough matchup for Cleveland all day long and it only takes one play for Marquise to get a step behind Mitchell and he will be scoring a touchdown.
- We mentioned the Chargers injuries, but just want to expand on this a little bit more in this section. Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin, Virgil Green, Hunter Henry, Justin Jackson are all out of this game. This is a game that is going to essentially go through Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and possibly a few deep passes to Dontrelle Inman. Do not be frightened by Melvin Gordon even if he dresses, as he will likely play a role only if Austin Ekeler were to go down.
- T.Y. Hilton is looking doubtful for the Colts this week with a quad injury. The player who likely will be filling in is Parris Campbell. Campbell is a second-round draft rookie who saw his snap counts increase to 45% last week when Hilton left mid-game. While you should not be considering Campbell in cash, as they still have players such as Zach Pascal, Deon Cain, and Chester Rogers.
THOUGHTS HEADING INTO THE SLATE
Avoid Leonard Fournette in Cash
Last week we highlighted on avoiding Chris Carson in cash due to the fumbling concerns which ultimately landed him on the bench midway through the game. This week, we’re going to highlight on avoiding Leonard Fournette in cash. Fournette continues to get a lot of love across the industry from almost every site. He is going to be a popular player simply because his salary is just $6,400, but his downside risk is tremendous as evidenced by his performance on Thursday Night against the Titans where had -3 yards on his first 14 carries before breaking a 66 yard run on the final run of the game. With all of the salary saving opportunities that we will touch on, he is not a player that you need to go to in this game, on full-PPR sites he is more palatable due to his increased volume in the receiving game, but on FanDuel, you really need 100 yard and a touchdown upside which Fournette has not done since his rookie season.
This could come back to bite me one of these weeks, but a strategy that will continue to be used throughout this article until he proves otherwise.
KEY CASH CORE
We have already touched on this throughout the article, but what these two are doing is just ridiculous how the Chargers are essentially running the game plan through just two players. Allen has had 32 targets over the last two games and last week completely broke the slate as he had 185 yards and two touchdowns along with 13 receptions. Meanwhile, Ekeler has seen six or more targets in each of his three games this year along with averaging 120 total yards rushing and receiving per game. Now add in that these two are facing the worst defense in football in the Miami Dolphins and this is a matchup which is incredibly exciting for both players.
Seattle Defense
A lot of people are going to try to fit the Chargers defense into the lineup, but to be different, you should consider the Seahawks this week instead. The Chargers fall into the classic west coast team heading east for a 1 PM game. Since 2003, these teams have only won 37% of the time. The Seahawks get the benefit of playing Kyler Murray this week who has struggled in games in non-garbage time this season. His stats are inflated by two comeback attempts against Detroit and Baltimore, but last week we saw him struggle as he was sacked 8 times and threw two interceptions against the Panthers. Murray has now been sacked the second-most in the NFL with 16 sacks. At just $3,700, expect Jadeveon Clowney and the Seahawks defense to get after Murray and get several sacks while also providing a nice salary relief.
Marquise Brown struggled last week against the Chiefs, but the good news is that he is still getting a high volume of targets. Brown only caught two passes for nine yards last week but did see a team-high nine targets in the loss to Kansas City. We mentioned the speed advantage he should have against Terrance Mitchell and to get a player who is leading his team in targets and a favorable matchup at just $5,700 is a no-brainer cash gameplay. This is a player who others may avoid simply because of his lack of performance last week, but he is the player who could win you all of your cash games if he breaks a long reception. Even if he doesn’t break a long reception, he should catch more than just two of his nine targets this week and provide a nice floor.
This is a play that ultimately does not make you feel great when you click on his name. The Seahawks have been talking about getting Dissly more involved and over the last two weeks, he has 11 receptions, 112 yards, and 3 touchdowns. This recent performance has led the Seahawks to trading Nick Vannett which ultimately should show their commitment to expanding his role in this offense. All of these things are great signs for Dissly but are not the primary reason that he is a cash game core play. The reason he is a cash game core play is the matchup this week against Arizona. So far this season, Arizona is allowing 25.4 FanDuel points to opposing tight ends which is by far the worst in the NFL. For reference, the next closest team is Tampa Bay who has allowed 14.8 FanDuel points per game. This is not a scenario in which the Cardinals have played all elite tight ends, they have allowed 110 yards or more and a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and last week allowed 75 yards and two touchdowns to Greg Olsen.
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.7)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA- $7,800
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC- $8,100
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE- $7,300
- WR Marquise Brown, $5,700
- WR Keenan Allen, $8,100
- WR Sammy Watkins, KC- $6,900
- TE Will Dissly, SEA- $5,400
- Flex RB- David Johnson ARI- $6,800
- TD Seattle Seahawks- $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – CASH+ Ravens+Browns Stack (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.0)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL- $8,400
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC- $8,100
- RB Kerryon Johnson, DET- $6,500
- WR Marquise Brown, $5,700
- WR Keenan Allen, $8,100
- WR Sammy Watkins, KC- $6,900
- TE Will Dissly, SEA- 5,400
- Flex WR- Tyler Lockett- 6,600
- TD Seattle Seahawks- $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – ALTERNATIVE CASH + - SPEND DOWN AT Quarterback NYG Wash Stack (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 142.5)
- QB Daniel Jones, NYG- $7,300
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC- $8,100
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR- $9,000
- WR Marquise Brown, $5,700
- WR Keenan Allen, $8,100
- WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI- $5,900
- TE Evan Engram, NYG- $6,800
- Flex WR- Chris Thompson- $5,300
- TD Seattle Seahawks- $3,700