Week 1 is finally here, and welcome to another season of #Trendspotting! Some new stats, graphics, and features have been added this season. We'll walk you through them as we go in order to call attention to the main takeaways with each section.
The Agenda
In most weeks, we'll have more topics. Because it's Week 1, a couple of #Trendspotting staples won't appear because we don't have any 2018 data yet.
- Developing Trends
- How Will They Score?
- New England Patriots (vs. Houston Texans)
- New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
- Kansas City Chiefs (at Los Angeles Chargers)
- Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)
Developing Trends
In the thick of the season, this section will discuss newly-developing trends. For Week 1 purposes, let's look at some trends that were in place throughout 2017 and some others that could emerge in 2018.
- QBs vs. Kansas City - This was an average matchup last year, but the Chiefs are worse in the secondary this season.
- RBs vs. Buffalo - They were poor last season (most fantasy points allowed), and the game scripts aren't going to be in their favor with a putrid offense.
- RBs vs. Atlanta - For two consecutive years, backs have performed well in the receiving game vs. Atlanta (second-most receiving fantasy points allowed in 2017).
- WR1s vs. Baltimore (without Jimmy Smith) - Baltimore was unable to contain WR1s without Smith last season. He's suspended for the first four games this year. Unfortunately, we might need until Week 2 to figure this out since Buffalo is unlikely to provide a challenge.
- WR2s vs. Arizona - Will the player not seeing Patrick Peterson continue to be productive?
- TEs vs. N.Y. Giants - Will this carry over with the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie no longer providing a "tight end funnel?"
- TEs vs. L.A. Rams - This wasn't a great matchup last season, but with the addition of two elite cornerbacks, might opposing offenses shift more targets to their tight ends?
How Will They Score?
This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.
- Take each team's implied Vegas team total
- Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
- Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
- Do the same for rushing touchdowns
- An asterisk denotes a home team
Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only. You'll get the hang of it with the help of the charts and some examples.
Disclaimer: A couple words of caution should be mentioned with these tables. First, the data here is based on 2017. Second, Vegas lines are less accurate early in the year (especially in Week 1) since there is no data upon which to base the lines.
Passing Points
| Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off PaTD% | Def PaTD% | Pass Pts. |
| New England Patriots | Houston Texans | 28.50 | 41.7% | 42.0% | 11.93 |
| Detroit Lions | New York Jets | 25.75 | 41.6% | 47.2% | 11.43 |
| Houston Texans | New England Patriots | 22.50 | 51.7% | 49.7% | 11.40 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | 26.00 | 44.4% | 42.4% | 11.29 |
| Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 27.50 | 46.6% | 34.3% | 11.13 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | 25.50 | 46.2% | 40.0% | 10.98 |
| Minnesota Vikings | San Francisco 49ers | 26.00 | 40.1% | 43.8% | 10.91 |
| Miami Dolphins | Tennessee Titans | 22.00 | 52.1% | 46.8% | 10.88 |
Action Items
- The first seven teams listed here are no-brainers in terms of utilizing their passing games for fantasy purposes. The surprising team here is Miami. Whether or not DeVante Parker plays, Kenny Stills should be the most targeted receiver in Miami, making Stills worth a shot in DFS tournaments. He's even cash-game viable without Parker.
September 5 edit: Parker isn't going to play. Stills is a quality play in all formats if you need savings, but his GPP ownership should go up with the Parker news.
Rushing Points
| Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off RuTD% | Def RuTD% | Proj. Rush |
| New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29.50 | 31.1% | 26.8% | 8.55 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | 23.75 | 21.2% | 36.7% | 6.88 |
| Tennessee Titans | Miami Dolphins | 23.00 | 33.9% | 21.0% | 6.31 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Cincinnati Bengals | 25.75 | 24.9% | 22.4% | 6.08 |
| Oakland Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | 22.75 | 26.8% | 26.4% | 6.06 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | 25.50 | 18.5% | 28.6% | 6.00 |
| Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | 20.50 | 28.6% | 27.5% | 5.74 |
| Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 27.50 | 25.2% | 16.2% | 5.69 |
Action Items
- 2017 data or not, both the New Orleans and Baltimore backfields attractive this week. Each team is a touchdown-or-more home favorite. Alvin Kamara is likely to be the chalkiest player on the board, but Kamara is worth the play in all formats. Alex Collins should be fed early and often as Baltimore's primary workhorse. Collins is a nice GPP play if looking to differentiate by paying up at wide receiver instead of running back, and he should be a low-end RB1 in season-long formats this week.
- Between the attention paid to the passing games in the L.A. Chargers-Kansas City game and the attention paid to the higher-priced running backs, Melvin Gordon III is a forgotten man this week. Don't forget about him.
New England Patriots (vs. Houston Texans)
