#Trendspotting: Week 13 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing only a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Strength vs. Weakness
• Playcalling Preferences
• Going Deep

Looks Can Be Deceiving

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary and Action Items

Baltimore has been a matchup to avoid all season, but if we look at their DvP over the last five weeks, they've actually allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore allowed two passing touchdowns in three of their four games in that span, with Oakland being the only team to not achieve the feat. They have also allowed two rushing touchdowns during that stretch.

His team has been bad, but Matt Ryan hasn't been. Ryan has eight top-12 finishes this season, including five of his last six games. His worst finish since Week 5 is QB15. He should be rostered in fewer DFS lineups this week than any other this season, making Ryan a GPP-worthy DFS play.

Commentary and Action Items

The Jets have been bad against the pass, but Tennessee may lean on the run in this game. Following two straight losses, and as a 7.5-point home favorite, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Titans try to control this game and win a snoozer. That makes both running backs viable, but the case is stronger for Dion Lewis (more on this later).

The Chicago running game is in a great spot against a Giants team that performs poorly vs. running backs regardless of the metric being used. Prior to yielding "only" 84 yards on 22 Josh Adams carries last week, the Giants had allowed a 100+ yard rushing performance in three straight games. On the season, the Giants allow 15.6 rushing fantasy points per game, eighth-most. Tarik Cohen is the more explosive player, but he's a GPP-only selection for DFS purposes due to his low touch volume and the presence of Jordan Howard.

Commentary and Action Items

Arizona has allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in three of its last five games and 5+ receptions to at least one wide receiver in 10 of its 11 games this season. Only Oakland's injury-depleted receiving corps failed. Many will flock to Aaron Jones against Arizona, and rightfully so given Green Bay's status as a near-two-touchdown home favorite. But don't sleep on the receiving corps, especially Davante Adams, whose 27% target share is ninth in the NFL over the last five weeks.

The Rams have allowed two 200-yard receivers in their last three games and 15+ PPR fantasy points to eight wide receivers in their last seven games. Since Marvin Jones was injured, Kenny Golladay is seeing 67% of Detroit's air yards, by far the highest percentage in the NFL. And Golladay's 29% target share in those two games is ninth. Golladay makes for a solid DFS play in all formats and is a low-end WR1 in season-long leagues.

Don't disregard Indianapolis because of the Jacksonville matchup. The Jaguars are a team who appears to have surrendered on its season. Also, they're not as good as they appear on paper. Jacksonville also appeared above in the quarterbacks section, making an Andrew Luck-T.Y. Hilton stack a potential DFS differentiator.

Commentary and Action Items

We called Matt Ryan a GPP candidate above, but when using quarterbacks for DFS tournaments, a stack partner is often necessary for correlation. Julio Jones is always a candidate due to his usage, talent, and consistency, but Austin Hooper may have the better matchup this week. Baltimore allows 29.2% of its total passing yardage to tight ends, the highest percentage in the NFL. And at tight end, DFS players like to spend up or spend way down. With Hooper's middling price and Atlanta facing Baltimore's tough defense, Hooper isn't likely to be discussed (or rostered) much this week.

Speaking of paying up, Travis Kelce is always capable of providing GPP-winning upside. And the matchup this week is promising as well. Oakland allows 26.5% of its total passing yardage to tight ends, the third-highest percentage, while Kansas City gains 28.9% of its total passing yardage via tight ends, the fifth-highest percentage.

[return to top]

Strength vs. Weakness

This section is an enhancement the "Funnel Watch" and "Reverse Funnel Watch" section we used to include each week. Instead of looking at defenses only, we'll look at how offenses gain their yards vs. how defenses allow their yards for this week's matchups.

"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)

Commentary and Action Items

Just because a team passes for a high percentage of yards doesn't mean they pass for a high volume of yards. And the same is true of defenses. So let's look at where these teams rank in terms of passing yardage on the season:

Passing Yards per Game Rank (Offense):

• Tampa Bay - 1st, N.Y. Giants - 12th, Minnesota - 7th, Atlanta - 4th, Pittsburgh - 2nd.

Passing Yards per Game Rank (Defense):

• Carolina - 22nd, Chicago - 10th, New England - 25th, Baltimore - 2nd, L.A. Chargers - 7th.

Tampa Bay and Minnesota are in the best matchups of these pass-happy teams facing funnel-esque defenses. The entirety of the Tampa Bay passing game is in play, though the "Going Deep" section later will make a compelling case for two pass-catchers over the rest. And Kirk Cousins and his dynamic receiving duo are both in play in all DFS formats and are WR1s in season-long.