Fantasy Overview, Week 4 - Footballguys

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (currently 1st) - It's possible that Fitzpatrick will stay the Buccaneers starting quarterback and have a career year, but it's doubtful that he will maintain the #1 ranking and average 400-yard games every week. The fall from grace may not be a thud, but it seems inevitable that he won't be able to sustain this high level of success.
• Patrick Mahomes II II (currently 2nd) - Mahomes may be a star in the league, but the likelihood that he maintains his high level of success going forward seems like a tall order. Ride the wave, but waves eventually crash. He may be a Top 10 quarterback this year. He may be a Top 5 quarterback, but it's a stretch to think he keeps his high level of performance where it is right now.
• Drew Brees (currently 3rd) - The Saints will be getting Mark Ingram back for Week 5 and that could mean a change in offensive philosophy. Last year Brees finished 10th and the Saints had one of the best rushing offenses in the league. Brees' 8 touchdown passes in three games is a third of what he accomplished in 2017 (23 touchdown passes), but the passing game may be taking a step back soon.

Running back

• Kerryon Johnson (currently 30th) - Johnson showed that he is capable of being an every-down back. He can earn tough yards after contact, he has the speed to reach the edge, and he can muscle his way through the middle. If Detroit feeds him the ball enough, he'll produce. The talent is there, the team just needs to lean on him more.
• Sony Michel (67th) - Rex Burkhead had a concussion after Week 1 and now has a neck injury. Michel has already started to see an increase in snaps. It's only a matter of time before he becomes a more versatile back in the Patriots offense.
• Corey Clement (28th) - Aside from Jay Ajayi, the Eagles top rusher and versatile back is Corey Clement. Wendell Smallwood may have scored last week, but Clement was the better rusher despite being limited with a leg injury. The return of Carson Wentz will open up the offense and Clement will eventually be the back who benefits the most.

Needle pointing down

• James Conner, PIT (5th) - If not for Conner's huge Week 1, he'd probably be on the outside of the Top 10. He's still getting decent looks as a receiver, averaging five receptions per game, but his rushing output has slowed down. His yards per rush has dropped to 3.9 and since his explosion of 31 carries in Week 1, he has 8 and 15 carries in consecutive games. He's a good, viable fantasy back, but he's not LeVeon Bell and he's arguably not a Top 10 fantasy back.
• Carlos Hyde, CLE (9th) - Carlos Hyde is enjoying a nice season so far, but he has only 4 receptions and his average per rush is a mere 3.3 yards per carry. His four touchdowns have him ranked 9th, but if you take that away, he drops way down. The Browns offense is on the rise, so Hyde could continue to flourish, but he's been very touchdown-dependent in the first three weeks.
• Isaiah Crowell, NYJ (12th) - Like Hyde, Crowell has benefited from four touchdowns. Like Hyde, Crowell has only four receptions. Unlike Hyde, Crowell has Bilal Powell sharing the number of carries in the Jets offense. If the touchdowns fall off, Crowell becomes a very average running back.

Wide Receiver

• Keenan Allen, LAC - He is one big game from being in the Top 12-15. He leads the team in targets (26) and receptions (17), but the game against the Rams set him back, while other receivers across the league rose to the occasion. The schedule is definitely opening up for both him and the Chargers offense (vs SF, vs OAK, at CLE, vs TEN) in the next four weeks.
• Antonio Calloway, CLE - The emergence of Baker Mayfield running the Browns offense is going to start a ripple effect of positive fantasy outcomes. Jarvis Landry may be the possession receiver, but Calloway already looks to be Mayfield's downfield weapon. He's on the verge of being fantasy relevant right now. The addition of Mayfield could put him in the flex option category.
• Michael Crabtree, Demaryius Thomas, and Brandin Cooks all have 25-26 targets with zero or one touchdown each. Thomas and Crabtree lead their team in targets and Cooks isn't far behind Robert Woods. All three have the pedigree to improve their standing in the rankings. Cooks has the best quarterback to work with, followed by Crabtree and Thomas. One big game could put them back into fantasy relevance.

Needle pointing down

• DeSean Jackson, TB - Yes the Buccaneers offense is on fire right now, but Jackson is behind both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in targets and receptions. Jackson has big games here and there but he's not consistent enough. If the touchdowns fall, Jackson loses his fantasy appeal.
• Tyler Lockett, SEA - Doug Baldwin (knee) will be returning soon, which will relegate Tyler Lockett back to a complementary role. Lockett has only 12 receptions this year, but thanks to three touchdowns, he's ranked 21st. It's difficult to not chase points, but Lockett isn't getting enough looks. No Seattle player has more than 7 targets in a game this season.

Tight end

The tight end rankings are wide open. Travis Kelce leads the way thanks to 16 receptions, 229 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The #2 and #3 ranked tight ends, Jared Cook and Zach Ertz have yet to score a touchdown. A big game from O.J. Howard, Rob Gronkowski, Eric Ebron or Jordan Reed could easily catapult them into the Top 3. Gronkowski is sitting at a disappointing 6th place, but he's capable of exploding any given week. Generally, if Tom Brady struggles, so does Gronkowski. Brady has yet to hit his stride and it's affecting others around him, including their star tight end.

Changes seem inevitable in the Top 12. Only 8 points separate 11th place from 4th place. All it takes is one big game to alter the tight end landscape.

Players I like moving forward

• O.J. Howard, TB - The Buccaneers offense is clicking on all cylinders right now and as long as that doesn't fade, Howard should be a key contributor and stalwart fantasy option.
• David Njoku, CLE - The Browns offense is on the rise which means Njoku should start to see a spike in snaps, targets, and production.
• Dallas Goedert, PHI - Zach Ertz is the big name in the Eagles offense, but Goedert is capable of being a productive piece as well. He was on the field for 67% of the team's offensive snaps last week and his presence resulted in a touchdown. Goedert is filing the role vacated by Trey Burton last year, who had 5 touchdowns in 2017 as a complementary tight end receiving option.
• Hayden Hurst, BAL. Hurst is recovering from a foot injury and could wind up being a key contributor once he's back. It is common to shy away from rookie tight ends, but Baltimore's usage of the tight end is different from other teams. No one tight end has stood out in his absence, which opens the door for Hurst to be productive out of the gate.

Players I'm shying away from

• Trey Burton, CHI - Until the Bears take the training wheels off the offense, Trey Burton will be relegated to short-yardage targets with minimal scoring opportunities.
• Jared Cook, OAK - Cook led the team in targets in Week 1, but he slipped down in targets in Weeks 2 and 3. He may lead the team in receptions, but he has not been a red zone threat and Oakland isn't a prolific passing offense to hang your hat on.
• Jonnu Smith, TEN - Like Chicago, the Titans passing offense has struggled to be a consistent force. Smith has only two targets since Week 1 when Delanie Walker got injured. Until he shows differently, Smith isn't deserving of a starting spot in your lineup. He's good enough to stash, but eventually someone else is going to come along that deserves a spot on your roster over him.
• Will Dissly, SEA - 13 targets in three games aren't enough for me to get excited about. The Seattle offense, in general, is nearly off limits.