November is the best time of year to put together win-win trades. Contending teams should be looking to add the last few pieces to try to maximize their chances of playoff success. Rebuilding teams should be trying to buy low on injured players, unproductive rookies, and future picks. We will focus on some trade targets for rebuilding teams at each position.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.
Timing Note: New Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles will appear on the first Tuesday of every month.
Valuing Draft Picks
The first task in trying to accurately value rookie picks is to figure out what kind of rookie class we are looking at. Unfortunately, it is hard to get excited about the 2019 class.
The lone bright spot is the wide receiver position, which is slightly above average. It lacks a standout star and, like last year, we probably don’t see the first wide receiver go off the board in the NFL Draft until later in the first round. However, it is a deeper than normal group. Players like N’Keal Harry, A.J. Brown, and Kelvin Harmon should be top-50 picks and are relatively comparable to somebody like Courtland Sutton at the same stage. The big difference between 2018 and 2019 is that you could get Sutton (and most of the other top receiver prospects like Calvin Ridley, Anthony Miller, James Washington, and Christian Kirk) in the late-1st or early-2nd of your rookie drafts. Similar receiver prospects this year are going to go off the board early in the first round of rookie drafts because the other skill positions are much weaker.
The inflated rookie draft stock of the wide receivers is due to an especially down year at running back. We could certainly see a couple guys go in the second or third round of the NFL Draft and emerge later in the process as premium fantasy assets (like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara in 2017) but there aren’t any obvious first-round talents like we’ve seen in recent years with Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Todd Gurley.
It looks pretty ugly at quarterback too, especially with Justin Herbert of Oregon strongly considering sticking around for another season. This will especially devalue rookie picks in Superflex leagues.
Within that context, here is a rough value of 2019 rookie picks:
Tip for the patient: The 2020 rookie class looks absolutely loaded. All things being equal, the savvy move is to stock up on 2020 picks in deals now and throughout the offseason instead of targeting 2019 picks.
|
Rookie Pick |
Value |
|
Early 1st |
18 |
|
Mid 1st |
13 |
|
Late 1st |
8 |
|
Early 2nd |
5 |
|
Mid-Late 2nd |
4 |
|
3rd |
2 |
|
4th |
1 |
Quarterback
|
Rank
|
Player
|
2018 Value
|
Future Value
|
Total Value
|
|
1
|
5
|
15
|
20
|
|
|
2
|
3
|
9
|
12
|
|
|
3
|
3
|
7
|
10
|
|
|
4
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
|
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
|
|
6
|
2
|
7
|
9
|
|
|
7
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
8
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
10
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
11
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
|
|
12
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
13
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
14
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
|
15
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
16
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
17
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
18
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
19
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
20
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
21
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
22
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
23
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
24
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
25
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
26
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
27
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
28
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
29
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
30
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
All About Mahomes
It feels like the only big story at the quarterback position right now is the emergence of Mahomes as a superstar. We’ve mentioned often how the quarterback position has been devalued across the board in fantasy due to the depth at the position. Mahomes is the exception to this trend and the lone quarterback worth a real premium haul in a dynasty trade.
Trade Targets
Mitch Trubisky has been middling as a real NFL quarterback and that keeps his dynasty value relatively low. However, the fantasy upside is real. Trubisky averaged nearly 60 rushing yards and 3.25 passing touchdowns per game in October. In an offense that is still young, there is some real long-term upside here.
Speaking of upside, Lamar Jackson could be a fantasy game-changer in future seasons if his passing develops. He is going to put up huge rushing numbers when he has the ball in his hands every snap.
Running Back
|
Rank
|
Player
|
2018 Value
|
Future Value
|
Total Value
|
|
1
|
13
|
51
|
64
|
|
|
2
|
11
|
47
|
58
|
|
|
3
|
11
|
43
|
54
|
|
|
4
|
10
|
37
|
47
|
|
|
5
|
9
|
29
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
9
|
29
|
38
|
|
|
7
|
8
|
27
|
35
|
|
|
8
|
Melvin Gordon
|
9
|
23
|
32
|
|
9
|
7
|
21
|
28
|
|
|
10
|
6
|
22
|
28
|
|
|
11
|
3
|
25
|
28
|
|
|
12
|
3
|
25
|
28
|
|
|
13
|
4
|
20
|
24
|
|
|
14
|
3
|
16
|
19
|
|
|
15
|
3
|
16
|
19
|
|
|
16
|
3
|
15
|
18
|
|
|
17
|
0
|
18
|
18
|
|
|
18
|
4
|
12
|
16
|
|
|
19
|
3
|
11
|
14
|
|
|
20
|
2
|
11
|
13
|
|
|
21
|
0
|
12
|
12
|
|
|
22
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|
|
23
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
|
|
24
|
2
|
7
|
9
|
|
|
25
|
Mark Ingram
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
|
26
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
27
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
28
|
0
|
8
|
8
|
|
|
29
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
30
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
31
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
32
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
33
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
1
|
6
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
1
|
6
|
7
|
|
|
36
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
37
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
38
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
39
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
|
40
|
Ronald Jones
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
41
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
|
|
42
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
43
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
44
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
45
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
46
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
47
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
49
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
50
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
51
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
53
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
54
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
55
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
56
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
57
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
58
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
59
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Impossible to Get?
How do we value Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara at this point? It seems almost impossible to add any of these three in dynasty leagues—assuming one of the three isn’t on the other side of the offer. We’ve talked here often how the elite pass-catching running backs are like a cheat code in PPR scoring. These three provide such a massive advantage in the short-term and should be elite for a long time. In terms of dynasty trade value, there is some separation between this group and the top wide receivers (and the rest of the pack at running back).
Dice Roll at 28
The four running backs all tied with a trade value of 28 are amongst the toughest players to value in all of dynasty right now. The values of these four backs are highly volatile. Any of the four could move significantly higher or lower depending upon how the next six months play out. We have a couple very talented guys who were very recently in the elite tier in David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. Johnson has been the victim of questionable coaching and poor surrounding talent. Bell shot himself in the foot with the ill-advised holdout and we have to weigh the possibilities of his ending up in just as bad a situation next season as Johnson finds himself in now. James Conner continues to see his value rise. How high is too high? Conner is talented, if not quite elite. However, the starting job in Pittsburgh is such a plum spot he could put up elite fantasy numbers in 2019 and beyond if Bell leaves and Conner remains in the same role. Fournette is missing time due to injuries for the third straight season. He also finds himself in an offense that is regressing. Even if he does get healthy for the stretch run, he may still struggle to make a big fantasy impact behind a beat-up offensive line. He’s also an extremely talented back who may be the rare 25-touch workhorse when he returns.
Quick Look at Biggest Movers Since October
Kareem Hunt had a slow finish to 2017 and averaged just 12 fantasy points per game in September. His value had dipped a bit. Over the last month, it has rebounded in a big way. Hunt has posted four games of 25+ fantasy points since October 1st and is pushing towards the elite tier at the top of the rankings.
Marlon Mack returned from injury and put together back-to-back monster fantasy games to end the month of October. All of a sudden the Indianapolis offensive line looks outstanding and the lead role in the backfield next to Andrew Luck looks like one of the best running back jobs in the NFL. We have a small sample size with Mack behind this rebuilt line and it was against weak competition in recent weeks. So we don’t want to get carried away and overvalue Mack. On the other hand, the upside here looks huge. Any fair trade offer for Mack should reflect the realistic upside of this emerging Indianapolis offense.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen The Chicago backfield has been tough to predict from week to week. However, we now have a big enough sample size now to see which back has the most value in PPR leagues—Tarik Cohen is RB14 and Jordan Howard is RB27. Howard is further proof that a back that isn’t much involved as a pass catcher has an uphill battle to make a fantasy impact in PPR leagues. On the other hand, Cohen is on pace for 60+ receptions. That works in our lineups.
Trade Targets
Derrius Guice isn’t going to be dirt cheap but this is probably the best time to buy at a slight discount. It is worth remembering how good the Washington rushing offense looked before the slew of offensive line injuries. When this offense struggles down the stretch, keep the injuries in mind.
Dalvin Cook’s speed on that long run in his first game back may have slammed the buy-low window shut a bit. However, Cook has been out of sight and out of mind for so long, he still sees his dynasty value on a low ebb.
Ito Smith has carved out a real role in Atlanta with Devonta Freeman out. He should make Tevin Coleman expendable next offseason and continue in the same role behind Freeman, which gives him some low-end flex appeal. However, Freeman hasn’t shown much ability to stay healthy so Smith will also have some serious value as a handcuff. He is exactly the type of cheap youth to target as a rebuilding team if moving an aging veteran like Larry Fitzgerald or Tom Brady.