1. Anquan Boldin is keeping matt Stafford afloat as a QB1
Golden Tate and Theo Riddick offer big-play ability as YAC receivers. Tate also has some value in the vertical game because of his speed and skill winning the ball in the air.
Marvin Jones doesn't look the same as he did earlier in the year. I don't think his foot has been healthy. He did have some moments against Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes on Thanksgiving, which is promising.
The best of Jones on Thursday was a bad target from Stafford when he beat Waynes on a Dino route. Good route and the double move is a nice sign that he could be feeling better.
If Jones can build on these moments down the stretch, Stafford could have big weeks in store. If not, I still think Stafford delivers streamer viability because of Anquan Boldin.
The veteran receiver has the best rapport with Stafford in this offense. It shows up best in the red zone, the compressed area of the field that requires quick thinking and plays in tight spaces.
These are plays Stafford tried to make in his youth. While some of his attempts were ill-advised, there were plenty of targets where the receivers of Stafford's past were ill-equipped to react to his improvisational talents.
Boldin's skill to win the ball in tight spaces and create openings that anticipate the quarterback's needs make him a dangerous option and a lifesaver for a Lions offense that needs another year to tighten up its rapport.
Eric Ebron has the physical skills of a Pro Bowl seam tight end but his rapport with Stafford is iffy, at best. Tate has rapport, but his skill is limited to a space player with some rebounding ability. Jones has the best route skills on the team but his range of routes require a higher level of rapport that comes with additional work.
Boldin is a zone guy and he has the experience to communicate well with Stafford. He's worked with enough quarterbacks that he understands the ways to accelerate rapport and it's showing. Boldin may only offer flex appeal for fantasy owners, but he's a constant that's keeping the Lions in games, offensively—and it helps all fantasy owners with startable Lions players.
2. Vernon Davis is a consistent part of the offense
I'm convinced that Vernon Davis will remain a viable fantasy option this year based on what I've seen when he and Jordan Reed have been on the field at the same time against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Dallas. The Thanksgiving game revealed how Davis has been integrated into the offense as part of two-man games with Reed, Jamison Crowder, and Desean Jackson.
When Davis is paired with Jackson, defenses are forced to converge on Jackson due to his speed—despite the fact that Davis has great speed for a tight end. When Davis and Jackson both go deep, it clears out the middle for the outlet receivers.
As the game progresses and Davis gashes teams for chain-moving plays after the catch, the tight end's presence eventually benefits the receiver paired with him.
This game also extends to a Crowder-Davis pairing. In this case, teams are more concerned about Crowder after the catch than Davis and it can draw the eye of the cornerback with deeper zone responsibilities. When this happens, Davis can work behind the corner for a bigger catch in the intermediate zone.
Here's Davis paired with Reed and the space he earns with defenses concerned about Reed gives Davis room to roam as a runner after the catch. Pick your poison...
Not only does Davis still have game-changing physical skills, but he's in an offense that offers so many options that he's benefitting from defenses choosing the younger players as the bigger priority to stop. It makes him a potential high-volume target against zone defenses and a big-play target against units that play man outside or over top and there's a risk for a blown coverage deep.
Washington plays Arizona, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Chicago down the stretch. Tyrann Mathieu is a tough draw but if Reed is Mathieu's primary assignment, Davis could thrive. I think he's a boom-bust play for this game but with a high enough floor to give you no worse that TE2 production in PPR leagues.
The Eagles, and Panthers, and Bears are all units I'd start Davis with confidence and a bit of excitement.
3. welcome back, Sammy Watkins
It was a strange day for Watkins. None of us on the Audible pre-game show were happy to see Watkins return so soon. We love the receiver but worried that Buffalo is rushing him back and risking re-injury.
At best, we were concerned that Watkins wouldn't be effective. Rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey might not be the best evidence of Watkins' return, but Ramsey has had good moments against veteran receivers.
He had a good moment early in this game when he cut off LeSean McCoy's attempt to bounce a play outside and ended the play with a powerbomb.
But McCoy had the last laugh, telling Ramsey to Powerbomb THIS on the first run of the second half...
In between these two plays, Ramsey drew Sammy Watkins when the receiver came into the game. Both plays were off-coverage catches and Watkins labored through his stems and breaks.
You could see Watkins appearing a little sharper with his stride on the second route, but it didn't require as much acceleration or as sudden of a stop. I'm concerned that Watkins is still playing with enough of an injury that aggravation could damage his ability to return 100 percent next year.
The potential positive takeaway is that Watkins needed some reps to gain confidence in the foot or that he needed to warm up. Once he did, Watkins looked a lot more like his old self.
He's healthy enough to covet with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Miami on the docket. Welcome back, Sammy...
4. Welcome to Pittsburgh, ladarius green
Last week, I wrote that if the Steelers target Green in zone coverage, I will be mocking Pittsburgh with "Welcome to Ladarius Green, Steelers." Unfortunately for the side of me that loves to hate the Steelers, the offensive brain trust got it right with Green when it used the tight end as a man-option against the Colts.
Welcome to Pittsburgh, Ladarius Green. It looks like you're going to be used well and prosper—at least as a streamer TE1 for fantasy owners down the stretch.
5. rookie checkups
A few weeks ago, I showed a terrific dig route from Laquon Treadwell. This week, he looks hesitant from the briefest moment on a slant against Darius Slay that results in an interception that's called back due to pass interference.
The hesitation, the less-than-optimal hand position on the target, the lack of footwork off the line that he used with mastery at Ole Miss are all indications that Treadwell is overthinking things right now.
The change in coordinators, quarterbacks, and offensive line troubles all point to the team needing receivers capable of making quick adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Treadwell didn't land on a team with the stability for him to work his way into the starting lineup during the year.
Norv Turner's system is complex and he's a stickler about rookies mastering his teachings. If Teddy Bridgewater and the offensive line stayed healthy, I think Treadwell would have had had a greater chance of seeing significant time as the season progressed. But Bridgewater's injury forced Turner to chuck much of his system and tailor adjustments to Bradford.
Treadwell spent the summer learning one system and much of it was tossed with the arrival of Bradford. I'm still a believer in Treadwell's long-term prospects and I think he gets it together next year.
Dwayne Washington: The pad level, power, and burst are all showing up the same way it did at the University of Washington.
I won't at all be surprised if the Lions staff feeds the media a party line that Washington has a shot to grow into a feature back. I also won't be surprised if it remains a summer story and nothing more. The hump Washington must get over is pass protection.
If he does, he could have an impact. If not, Ameer Abdullah's only obstacle will be staying healthy. Considering how much the Lions talk about Abdullah as the guy who could be a feature back but they don't want to use him that way, Washington has a real chance to hurt Abdullah's long-term upside.
Devontae Booker: I think I have a handle on Booker's game. He has extraordinarily fast recognition of familiar situations. When he reads how a crease will open, he reads it a little earlier than most and it makes him look like he was either precognitive or a good guesser.
The problematic side of Booker's game is when he should take a slower approach to a crease. He is not one to cut his stride length dramatically to set up a block. He'll occasionally author a stutter step or slow his pace briefly, but he prefers barrelling into a crease.
The upside for Booker to become a top-10 fantasy RB is there, but I think he needs this year and some of next to develop more patience and skill at manipulating defenses when the blocks don't open exactly as he predicts them to. I think he was trying to figure this out prior to the Chiefs game, but the product of this adjustments yielded negatives—he stopped running as hard and the Broncos noted that he wasn't breaking tackles.
If he finds that balance between patience and decisiveness, Booker's upside will come to the fore.
Leonte Carroo: Richard Sherman complimented Carroo's game in the opener, but we've seen little of Carroo since. The rookie scored against the 49ers. Apologies for the camera angle here, but you see the route, which is what mattered to me.
What concerns me about Carroo won't be his development, but where he'll fit in this offense. Will he take over Kenny Still's role and become a more consistent option? Or, could he overtake DeVante Parker if Parker falters again this summer? I think it will need to be the latter if he has any shot at becoming a fantasy option of merit within the next year or two.
6. waiting room holdovers
There are some young players still in the waiting room hoping for the good doctor to pronounce them fit as every-week fantasy options.
Here are my thoughts on some of these players and whether they should get comfortable on the couch with Beetlejuice...
Justin Hunter: No doubt, this touchdown was a pretty play. It's one of those Bloom-EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-plays:
Hunter is also working from the slot, which as we've learned from DeVante Parker's use last year in Miami, is a sign that they want his athletic ability on the field but don't trust him to do more than outrun or rebound over a defender. It's a useful spot for Hunter, but he's the guy near the waiting room door trying to tell you he has inside information about the going's on behind the wall.
He doesn't.
If the Bills continue to use him as a slot option, Hunter is a match-up flex play against youthful defenses that lack great safety play. He's not making good on a career near-death experience and developing into the primary receiver that his upside allows—at least not yet.
Quincy Enunwa: The Jets receiver drew a low number and the good doctor will be seeing him soon. He is the future of the New York receiving corps. What has impressed me is his consistently good hand placement at the target. There was a time at Nebraska where he didn't know how to attack a football. Not anymore...
I always compared Enunwa's upside to that of Terrell Owens—not as talented as Owens, but talented enough to become a productive fantasy starter and primary option in a passing game. I think he could become a WR1 next year if the Jets get streamer QB1 play from one guy—even if it's Fitzpatrick.
Clive Walford: This play below is the kind of thing I saw him flash at Miami.
The Raiders need this presence in the middle of the field. If Walford can deliver it consistently, Carr becomes a lock as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. I don't believe Walford has turned a corner yet. There's not enough evidence to support it.
The Oakland TE has drawn a double-digit number. If he doesn't get sucked into one of Beetlejuice's schemes, there's hope. But I hope the Raiders keep a close eye on the situation.
Dion Sims: If it weren't for the offense and quarterback, I'd be more optimistic about Sims than Walford. I still may be. I loved Sims' receiving skills at Michigan State. He reminded me of a slower Antonio Gates when the Chargers receiver was in his prime.
Sims has returned from injury in recent weeks and he's earning targets. This is what I used to see from Sims in college.
If he has a decent stretch run, I'd consider him as a sleeper for next year.
Allen Robinson: Blake Bortles shoved Robinson back into the waiting room this year and two related stats are ample evidence. Robinson caught a pass against the Bills that traveled over 20 yards in the air.
It was his first reception of this kind this year. Last year, Robinson had 16 catches where the ball traveled at least 20 years in the air.
Don't worry folks, Robinson is pounding on the door and the nurses are running down the hall to let him back in. I hear the doctors have called some orderlies to chuck Bortles instead. Of course, that came from Justin Hunter with his ear pasted to the wall so I'm not exactly sure...
Marquess Wilson: Although he dropped a touchdown, it was statistically a big day for Wilson. This fade is the kind of thing I was used to seeing from him at Washington State.
It's Wilson's final year in Chicago and he should earn enough playing time down the stretch to get more attention from teams around the league. The 24-year-old is a four-year veteran. Although still slim, he's not the rail he was when he entered the league at age 20.
Wilson's best physical skills were his ability to play above the rim in tight coverage and his initial burst as a runner in the middle of the field. I think he has upside as a productive WR2 in the NFL and consistent fantasy WR2-WR3 production ahead of him.
Funny enough, he could easily be a league-winner this year because the Bears have little else and a schedule that includes the 49ers, Lions, and Packers. Wilson has a low double-digit number and the only way he stays in this waiting room is if a fracas breaks out and he gets injured in the crossfire.
7. Welcome back, Justin Houston
I know I sure could have used 46 points in my IDP dynasty league matchup this weekend. I have a strong linebacker corps, which led me to a cautious approach with returning Houston to my starting lineup. Although I made the wrong call, I'm excited about having him for my stretch run.
If you start Chiefs players or you're wondering if Kansas City's second-ranked fantasy defense will remain productive against the likes of Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, and Denver, I think Justin Houston's play can give you a positive answer.
Whether it's rushing the passer...
Playing the run...
Drawing a foul on the offense...
Forcing the quarterback to climb a congested pocket and getting sacked by one of Houston's teammates...
Forcing the opponent to bench a tackle and then screwing up the other side with a sack-fumble-safety that sets up a free kick return for a touchdown and a healthy lead...
I only showed you SOME of the things Houston did in the first half. He returned from a shoulder injury late in the half to post a game total of 8 tackles, 3 sacks, a forced fumble, and a tipped pass. I could do a Top 10 with all of Houston's noteworthy plays on Sunday night.
If Dee Ford and Dontari Poe return soon, I would not want to play Kansas City in the playoffs. The Chiefs unit keeps the offense in games. While Alex Smith isn't an aggressive passer, give him enough chances to hang around and he has the skill and weaponry to make good. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Spencer Ware remain constants in your lineups as no worse than flex-plays, thanks to this aggressive defense.
Woe be onto my opponents with Houston back in my IDP lineup.
8. Patriots offense
Several weeks ago, I shared my fantasy theory on the Patriots' offense and after it panned out, I revisited it for several weeks.
My working theory was based on the style of the opposing defense. Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and LeGarrette Blount were "constants" in the New England offense—every-week starts. The "variables" were the players where the defensive scheme matched their usage-skills in the Patriots scheme.
Since Brady returned from suspension, I had strong accuracy with predicting start-sits. Week 11 became the departure point because Gronkowski missed the game, Martellus Bennett has been struggling with a high ankle sprain, Dion Lewis returned to the lineup, and Malcolm Mitchell became more involved in the rotation.
What hasn't changed is the defensive schemes of the opposition. Here's how I characterize them through Week 16.
Opponents That Play A Lot of Man
- Buffalo (Week 8): Technically, the Bills play a lot of Cover 4 zone but its style of zone converts to man against "inside" routes often run by tight ends. It also plays its share of press coverage.
- San Francisco (Week 11): The 49ers like to play press coverage.
- New York Jets (Weeks 12 & 16): Man coverage with safety help over top and zone coverage over the middle.
- Baltimore (Week 14): A lot of man on the outside.
- Denver (Week 15): Lots of man coverage with corners, safeties, and linebackers. Occasional help over the top from safeties.
Opponents That Play A Lot of Zone
- Pittsburgh (Week 7): Although some of these options have higher upside based on the defensive scheme, I wouldn't downgrade Bennett, Hogan, or Blount when they're not facing those units.
- Seattle (Week 10): Although Seattle is known for Richard Sherman coverage skills, the Seahawks are essentially a zone defense.
- L.A. (Week 13): Gregg Williams will use his share of press man to blitz defenses but he also likes to place his safeties in disguised zones.
Updated Fantasy Constants: When healthy, Rob Gronkowski remains a fantasy constant. LeGarrette Blount's upside diminishes due to what you'll read below in the next section, but his usage in the red zone and to salt away games keeps him a viable constant. Dion Lewis also becomes a fantasy constant, but he's best-considered a boom-bust flex-option.
Updated Favorable Matchups vs. Man (Links are to Instagram vids of each play):
- Malcolm Mitchell: The rookie is the "shot receiver" of this corps. When Brady throws a pass greater than 16 yards to a perimeter option, his recent targets are Gronkowski matched up with a favorable look on the outside, a wheel route to a back, or Mitchell on a fade, go, or post. Brady targeted Mitchell four times in the end zone last week and all four were man routes. The first was a mesh route (the ole, "criss-cross" on a broken play. The second was an underthrown go that Mitchell had to convert to a fade. The third was a dropped go route. And the fourth was a two-man game against man coverage for an easy touchdown. Mitchell dropped one pass and juggled two others in this game, but he continues to earn Brady's confidence. He has effectively replaced Chris Hogan as the big-play man option and I suspect if Mitchell didn't hurt his elbow during the preseason, Hogan would have never had the role in the first place.
- Martellus Bennett (Warning): The warning has to do with Bennett's high ankle sprain. He has been struggling with the injury for weeks and it has reduced his role to that of a short-range receiver who is most effective working underneath off-man coverage. Unless Bennett faces defenders giving him a cushion of 5-7 yards off the line of scrimmage, he's less likely to be effective until he's completely over his ankle injury. I doubt he will be healthy for the rest of the year after Bennett re-injured the ankle after running an
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