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You guys have a ton of articles. 

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week. 

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.  

Tampa's D Transforms Chicago's o From Bearish to Bullish

Jay Cutler with something to prove has as much to do with a positive outlook for Chicago's offense as the Buccaneer's defense, but the Footballguys staff examines this matchup from several worthwhile angles this week. Let's begin with Ryan Hester's Trendspotting feature. 

If you haven't read Hester's weekly column, one of the segments is "Funnel Watch." Here's Hester's summation of the term and his notes about the matchup of the Bears O-Buccaneers D:

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs). The following table should help illustrate funnel defenses.

• Top 1/3 in the NFL in Yards per Rush Attempt allowed
• Bottom 1/3 in the NFL in Net Yards per Pass Attempt allowed
• Top 1/3 in Percentage of Yards Allowed via Rush (looking for low percentage figures here)
• Bottom 1/3 in Percentage of Yards Allowed via Pass (looking for high percentage figures here)

CHICAGO BEARS

Notes

• Tampa Bay has allowed 4 passing touchdowns in each of its last two games.
• Tampa Bay has allowed at least 3x value to three quarterbacks in its last three games.
• Tampa Bay is allowing 53.3 receiving yards per game to running backs, fifth-most in the NFL.
• Tampa Bay has allowed 8+ receptions to four wide receivers.
• Notable performances against Tampa Bay by WR1s: J. Jones (8-111-1), Cooper (12-173-1), K. Benjamin (5-70-0), D. Thomas (6-94-1)
• Since 2014, Alshon Jeffery has averaged 4.2 more fantasy points per game when Jay Cutler plays.

Commentary

Tampa Bay's pass defense is not very good. Last we saw Cutler, he was performing admirably against a defense that looked untouchable for the first five weeks of the season. Even the one WR1 that didn't meet value against Tampa Bay still had five catches and 70 yards. 

Aaron Rudnicki's WR/TE Matchups Exposed also lists Jeffery as a candidate for a strong weekend: 

WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI (vs TB)
Jeffery posted a respectable 4/63/1 in a tough matchup with the Vikings last week in Jay Cutler’s return. Things should be considerably easier for both of them this week, as they get a Tampa defense that has allowed 3 WRs to go over 100 yards in the past 2 weeks. Jeffery figures to match up with rookie CB Vernon Hargreaves most of the time, so look for Cutler to target him regularly.

Ari Ingel's The Dockett is equally optimistic: 

BEARS VS BUCCANEERS (-1 O/U 46)

Bears

Positive           

• Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery – Tampa are easier to pass on and these two guys have great mojo. Alshon is a solid WR1 going up against CB Vernon Hargreaves III, PFF’s 116th rated corner, with Cutler a quality bye week fill in.
• Jordan Howard – He’s back in the circle of trust after bringing it against the Vikings two weeks ago and that was without his two top Guards who are back this week.  John Fox would love the run game to be the foundation of their offense, so until he messes up or doesn’t perform, he should be their lead guy. The Bucs have been pretty tough against the run, but recently they have given up 4.7 YPC over the past five weeks.
• Zach Miller – What a difference a Cutler makes, he should be a solid TE1 against a team giving up 18 FPG over the past five weeks.

My Advice: Let's revisit Hester's article where he broaches those four strong receiver performances against the Bucs. What three of these four have in common is that Jones, Benjamin, and Thomas often travel across the middle of the defense to earn their yardage.

The players on the Bears who do most of this work are Cameron Meredith and Eddie Royal. If Ryal returns to the field this weekend, he's worth a desperation flier as a bye-week WR3 for WR4 flex-play. If not, I'd put Meredith in that spot. 

Because Cutler has an aggressive style, he'll squeeze the ball into tight windows on the perimeter. I have no concerns about Jeffery's matchup. But the player that stands to have the best weekend in the Bears' passing game is Zach Miller.  

As Ingel noted, 18 FPG yielded to tight ends over the past five weeks is eye-popping. I didn't know the stats, but the film study I did on the Buccaneers defense in this week's Top 10 indicated they are soft defending the seams:

The most notable thing I saw on film Thursday Night against Atlanta was the vulnerability the Buccaneers had up the seam on the right side of the field. Many of Atlanta's big plays came off coverage miscommunications or the Falcons' receivers straight-up beating Tampa's defense. 

So I checked the defensive game logs and noticed that the best producers against this unit are receivers and tight ends that work the middle of the field and the seams. 

Tight Ends vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The players in bold below either play in an offense that uses multiple tight end sets with great frequency or they are athletic "move" options that work the seams when targeted. 

If you're in need of a spot starter down the stretch, Tampa's defense should be a prime matchup for you to consider move tight ends and secondary receiving options with a little more weight. 

On a personal note, I started Miller over Isaiah Crowell in a premium PPR league this week and I made that decision Monday afternoon and never reconsidered. Although the firm of Bloom, Dodds and Tremblay, FBG have Miller as its consensus No.9 TE, I think the margin between Miller and the rest of the top-five is smaller than they project. Start with confidence.  

digging the Josh Norman matchup

While the staff was positive on the Bears offense this week, there isn't a consensus with Stefon Diggs' outlook for the rest of the season. The Vikings receiver earned mixed reviews in this week's Roundtable: 

Matt Waldman: Let's start with No.21 Stefon Diggs as a WR1. Anyone buying this idea?

John Mamula: Completely buying. Over the past two weeks, Diggs has 14 and 13 targets. As long as he is healthy, he is a WR1.

Mark Wimer: Sam Bradford is starting to collapse and I hate that Norv Turner left the offensive coordinator job. Selling. 

Andrew Garda: I like that he's getting heavy targets and Pat Shurmur seems to have a plan to save Sam Bradford from death behind this line. What I don't like? It's all short stuff so yards and touchdowns are going to be sketchy. He won't be a WR1 often enough to earn the cost, but as a WR2 or WR3 I think he is successful on volume. It means I'm selling in this case. 

Jeff Haseley: Sell. Unless Sam Bradford turns things around, I don't want any part of the Vikings offense. 

Matt Waldman: I'm with John here. I view this offensive change as one that's a win-win. Although the yardage per pass and touchdowns will be fewer, defenses in the NFL are far more likely to allow an offense to dink-and-dunk downfield.

It's more difficult to create long scoring drives of this nature. It means Diggs' target rate has a strong chance of remaining steady in the same way we've seen it with Ty Montgomery in recent weeks. 

Many NFL evaluators pegged Diggs as a natural slot receiver, anyhow. While he has proven far more versatile, this role will make him an extension of the ground game against linebackers that can't handle him in the shallow zones. 

Focusing specifically on this weekend, Rudnicki's Matchups Exposed column lists Diggs as a bad matchup:

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (vs WAS)
Diggs was the focal point of the Vikings offense last week, but he only managed 80 yards (with 0 TDs) on his 13 catches. We can likely expect him to see plenty of Josh Norman this week, so I’d expect Sam Bradford to look elsewhere. 

My Advice: As you can see, Rudnicki's argument and my argument makes this worth exploring in further depth. Let's presume Norman will cover Diggs a lot this week. If he does, is this truly a bad matchup? 

Washington's defense hasn't fared well against quick-fast receivers with strong skills on timing routes. Washington's Defensive Game Logs illustrates: 

Wide Receivers vs. Washington Redskins

I placed the players in bold type that fit this description above, including Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and all three Giants receivers. Of further note, Steve Smith's poor game shouldn't concern you because he got hurt early in that in that contest. 

The film study bears this out, too. I've featured Norman twice in the Top 10 this year. The first time, Terrelle Pryor thoroughly dominated Norman with his quickness and his burgeoning route skills during the first half of their matchup. Washington placed a safety over top the matchup in the second half because Norman couldn't handle Pryor one-on-one. 

The thorough whipping that Norman took at the hands of A.J. Green was the second instance. You might say that there's a significant difference between these established stars and Diggs. I don't think there is. When Diggs is healthy and facing a cornerback asked to play man, he emerges the winner and it has been this way since he made his debut against Denver's defense as a rookie.

Moreover, Norman is not a "shut-down" corner. NFL.com's Bucky Brooks explains this well: 

Josh Norman, CB, Washington Redskins: Despite garnering serious consideration for the 2015 Defensive Player of the Year award after a stellar campaign that eventually earned him a $75 million contract from the Redskins, the Pro Bowler isn't considered a "shutdown" corner by traditional standards. Norman is a "clue" corner adept at pattern-reading and keying the quarterback from distance in a zone scheme that enables defenders to play with vision from off coverage. Although Norman gained some experience playing bump-and-run coverage during his time in Carolina, there are serious concerns about whether he possesses enough speed and athleticism to thrive in a scheme that prominently features man coverage.

Now, I know Norman routinely challenged premier receivers -- including the likes of Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones -- at the line of scrimmage in recent years, but there are plenty of instances on tape where his lack of elite speed and burst could've resulted in big plays down the field (see: Beckham's drop against Norman in the first quarter of their rowdy matchup last season). In fact, I had an AFC North personnel director suggest that Norman could get "exposed" if he had to match up with a premier WR1 and shadow him for four quarters of coverage.

While I have the utmost respect for Norman's playmaking ability as a zone corner, I don't believe his skills are conducive to playing the role of a CB1 in every system. With a move to the NFC East and intriguing matchups dotting the schedule, the football world might soon see if Norman is the lockdown corner he claims to be.

We've seen this play out all year. I wouldn't fear Norman shutting down Diggs. Moreover, I doubt Norman even shadows him. Combine these factors with Diggs likely to earn more of a Jarvis Landry role in this short-passing offense—after all, he was first considered a slot player before proving to the Vikings that he could be a lot more. If you're in a PPR league, Diggs is in a situation to earn 8-12 catches and 80-120 yards per game for the rest of the year.

Patriots passing game vs. the legion of boom

Let's return to Trendspotting where Hester has labeled the Patriots O-Seattle D as a funnel matchup.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Notes

• Seattle has allowed 250+ passing yards in five straight games.
• Seattle has faced and average of 41 passing attempts in its last five games.
• Seattle has allowed 85+ rushing yards to a running back in four of its last six games.
• Seattle is allowing 26.9% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the 11th-highest percentage in the NFL.
• LeGarrette Blount averages 5.4 more PPR fantasy points per game when New England is a favorite of seven or more points.
• Seattle has allowed 6+ receptions to five wide receivers in its last four games.
• As seen above, Seattle is 4th in the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
• Not shown above, but shown by Football Outsiders, Seattle is 23rd in the NFL in DVOA against tight ends.

Commentary

Seattle is still a good defense, but they aren't the elite unit they used to be in recent memory. While their raw numbers look great, they haven't faced an offensive juggernaut like New England. And with the Patriots, all roads lead back to Tom Brady. He's still a safe play this week due to being at home, playing a team on a short week, and being a big favorite with a high team total. The last points make Blount an intriguing possibility. 

I'm including Rob Gronkowski in my "GPP Plays" section below. The 3.75x marker on his price tag is super steep, and I'm far from certain he makes it there. But playing him is likely to be a differentiator from many. In many weeks, we call out "raw points" plays as being more important that points-per-dollar plays, but raw points and unique points are what sets players apart from GPP fields.

What the data is missing is Kam Chancellor's absence, but The Dockett isn't concerned about the safety's return to the field: 

Neutral

• Tom Brady – The Seahawks gets their safety back in Kam Chancellor, but are still without all-pro defensive end Michel Bennett, which is a big loss resulting in the Seahawks giving up 24.7 FPG to QBs over the past five weeks. While this might not be a 400 yard and 4 TD game, 300 and 3 is very much in the realm of possibility since they can’t really run on them. This is also a Seattle defense that just got lit up by the lowly Bills at home.
• Julian Edelman – He has a decent matchup against beatable slot CB Jeremy Lane, so it could be dink and dunk heaven for Edelman this week with the other receivers on lock. Yet, he’s really only seeing 4 or 5 catches a game right now, which for a reception dependent fantasy receiver, is not good.
• Rob Gronkowski – It’s as tough as it comes, so fade in DFS and play as usual in season long. The Pats always find a way, so does Gronk.
• James White – This sets up as more of a White game, with the Seahawks giving up around 6 catches a game to opposing RBs. While the return of Dion Lewis could cut into his workload eventually, I can’t imagine they give him more than a few snaps or more than a series or two. This team is thinking Super Bowl, so there is no rush.

Negative

• LeGarrette Blount – Not a good week for him against this tough run defense.
• Martellus Bennett – Not the week to use him unless you have no other options.
• Chris Hogan – He can always score on a deep bomb, so viable if you need a reach play, but this is a tough matchup even at home. Brady will test this defense though.

My Advice: Let's examine each skill position for New England. Unless Michael Bennett finds a miracle cure or enters the mind of Jarran Reed and Frank Clark, Brady is a lock for a QB1 game—and likely a top-5 performance without a consistent pass rush to hinder him.

Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett are the next big questions.  Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant rate this a neutral matchup for Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett, citing that Seattle is near the middle of the pack against tight ends in points allowed per game. Looking deeper at the tight ends that faced the Seahawks, it's not an impressive group: 

Tight Ends vs. Seattle Seahawks

Other than streamers Coby Fleener and Lance Kendricks, you wouldn't have a single one of these players on your roster, much less your starting lineup, on a weekly basis.

On Thursday night's Audible LIVE!, Jene Bramel expressed concern about Bennett's high ankle sprain. To paraphrase, Bramel said that Bennett has aggravated that injury multiple times since sustaining it weeks ago and that's one of the difficulties that occur when a big man tries to play through this type of injury. 

It explains why Bennett has been used more often as a blocker and his receiving production has faltered. Bramel says he'd like to see more from Bennett before he can trust him in his lineups. That's enough for me and it means I'm leaning harder on Gronkowski despite the fact that Chancellor is back. I don't expect a top-3 performance, but I think a range of 6-65-0 as the floor and 8-80-1 as the ceiling remains in TE1 territory.

Because Seattle is a zone defense that converts to man coverage on the outside, receivers like Edelman and Amendola have a shot at earning WR2 and WR3 production, respectively. The position with potential for a surprisingly good performance is the scatback role: James White or Dion Lewis.

Reports from New England indicate that Dion Lewis could active the runner on Saturday afternoon and use him against the Seahawks. Conventional wisdom dictates that Lewis would be eased back into duty. There are too many examples of players who have busted this myth in recent years, but this situation is too difficult to predict because we haven't seen reports about his conditioning, or practice habits. Considering that it was an ACL tear, I'm inclined to stick with conventional thinking in this case.

It means if Lewis is activated, it puts a dent in James White's promising matchup that Ingel noted above. If Lewis doesn't play, White is a good RB3. I'm keeping Blount in my lineups as a high-end RB3. 

San Francisco Treats: looking beyond David Johnson

In case you haven't been watching the NFL and letting someone else manage your team until this week, you know that David Johnson has the best matchup of any non-QB in Week 10. San Francisco has set an NFL record for allowing seven consecutive 100-yard rushers. But let's look beyond Johnson and examine the other potential goodies in the 49ers gift basket. 

Larry Fitzgerald should also be an obvious play, but it appears there's potential for a performance that goes above and beyond his standard WR1-WR2 fare. Hester's Trendspotting feature also examines regression candidates. Fitzgerald is a notable mention. 

TARGETS LEAD TO TOUCHDOWNS

In this section, I'll attempt to identify potential regression candidates whose workloads suggest they should have earned more touchdowns. This week (and going forward), I'll be using only the most recent four weeks as the examination period. The qualifications here are:

• at least seven (7) targets per game
• at least 20% of their team's Target Market Share
• on teams in the top one-third of the NFL in passing attempts per game
• zero touchdowns if the team has played three games in the four-week period, or one touchdown if they've played all four weeks

PLAYER	TD	TGT/GM	MS%	TMATT/GM	MATCHUP
LeVeon Bell	0	9.7	23.8%	40.7	vs. DAL
Allen Robinson	1	10.0	23.7%	42.3	vs. HOU
Larry Fitzgerald	0	11.3	21.7%	52.3	vs. SF
Allen Hurns	1	8.2	19.5%	42.3	vs. HOU
Willie Snead	0	8.2	19.5%	42.3	vs. DEN

Robinson was on the list last week and scored but still remains via the criteria above. Perhaps he's "less" of a candidate. Snead was also on last week's list, and despite dipping slightly below 20% market share, I've left him on here. Out of the five players on last week's list, two (Robinson and Mike Wallace) scored touchdowns.

The most notable player on the list is once again LeVeon Bell. It could be argued that he has touchdown regression coming in the form of receiving and rushing. Hurns may not play this week due a concussion, so monitor his status.

 And predictably, the 49ers defense generates another funnel matchup. Notable points I've underlined below: 

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Notes

• San Francisco has allowed 2+ touchdown passes in five straight games and six of eight.
• San Francisco is allowing 241 passing yards per game, 22nd-most in the NFL. Prior to last week's 323-yard performance by Drew Brees, San Francisco's average allowed was 229 yards.
• San Francisco has allowed a 100+ yard rusher in seven straight games.
• San Francisco has allowed a 138+ yard rusher in five straight games.
• San Francisco has allowed 60+ rushing yards to a team's second-string running back in three straight games.
• San Francisco has allowed 5+ receptions to nine wide receivers in its last seven games.
• San Francisco has allowed 2+ touchdowns to three wide receivers in its last four games.
• Notable performances against San Francisco to receivers who play a portion of snaps out of the slot: M. Thomas (5-73-2), Woods (5-44-1), Fitzgerald (6-81-2), Beasley (3-66-0), Baldwin (8-164-1).
• San Francisco has allowed 50+ yards to one tight end in its last five games.

My Advice: These underlined notes are big-time indicators for a strong performance from Fitzgerald. While I have no problem recommending J.J. Nelson or John Brown as a potential WR3-WR4, I'd bet more on a healthy Brown earning more of the targets despite Nelson having some good outings lately. 

The fascinating play of the week for fantasy owners could be Andre Ellington--mentioned in Trendspotting and in Bloom's Sleepers. If you're desperate for a back this week, Ellington could be a cheap addition and provide better upside than his station suggests. 

Down the stretch: waring out your league 

Speaking of Bloom, the top guy on his Buy Low list for Buy Low, Sell High is Spencer Ware.  

Spencer Ware, RB, KC - Ware should be back this week, although he will face the stiff Panthers run defense. He has consistently demonstrated the receiving ability to weather poor rushing matchup storms and those Week 12 and 16 matchups against Denver all of the sudden look favorable for a running back. Ware was an RB1 before Jamaal Charles returned, there’s no reason to think that he won’t have the ability and game scripts to do it again after Charles went on injured reserve, but I suspect you can get him for less than that in redraft and dynasty leagues.

He's also No.15 overall in David Dodds' Top 200 Forward for PPR. 

TOP 200 FORWARD FOR PPR

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	ThisWk	RestOfYr	PPG	Value
1	David Johnson	RB	ARI / 9	28.2	160.5	23.6	89.8
2	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL / 7	20.7	158.3	22.4	81.4
3	LeVeon Bell	RB	PIT / 8	24.5	149.5	21.8	77.1
4	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD / 11	21.4	135.0	19.6	62.3
5	Mike Evans	WR	TB / 6	20.6	150.3	21.4	57.5
6	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT / 8	20.7	141.5	20.3	50.3
7	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA / 8	15.4	120.3	17.0	45.8
8	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN / 13	18.5	116.0	16.8	44.8
9	A.J. Green	WR	CIN / 9	19.3	135.0	19.3	43.9
10	Odell Beckham Jr/a>	WR	NYG / 8	19.6	129.0	18.6	39.5
11	Todd Gurley	RB	LA / 8	12.9	111.5	15.6	37.2
12	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU / 9	14.7	108.8	15.4	36.6
13	Julio Jones	WR	ATL / 11	20.6	124.0	18.1	36.4
14	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL / 11	17.9	104.8	15.3	36.0
15	Spencer Ware	RB	KC / 5	14.0	108.5	15.3	35.8

My Advice: You know I'm not disagreeing with either of them, here. I built this bandwagon. We engaged in a Build-A-Team exercise in this week's Roundtable. From the available player pool, Ware was my surefire starter. 

Note: We could only choose one player in bold to build your depth chart of 3-4 RBs in this exercise. 

Who are your choices at RB?

• Melvin Gordon
• Devonta Freeman
• Matt Forte
• LeGarrette Blount
• Frank Gore 
• Spencer Ware
• Latavius Murray
• Todd Gurley
• Carlos Hyde
• Jordan Howard
• Darren Sproles
• Devontae Booker
• Terrance West
• Kenneth Dixon
• Kapri Bibbs
• Matt Jones
• Rob Kelley
• Bilal Powell
• Jalen Richard
• Dion Lewis
• James Starks
• Ty Montgomery
• Charcandrick West
• C.J. Prosise
• Christine Michael
• Thomas Rawls
• DuJuan Harris

Matt Waldman: Gordon, Devonta Freeman, and Matt Forte have their merits. I'm going with Spencer Ware as my sure-fire starter. Denver's run defense is bad the Chiefs get them twice down the stretch. Atlanta, Oakland, and Tennessee can also be run on. 

Ware is a complete back and he's among the best at yards after contact, yards versus stacked fronts, and yards after the catch. Give him the ball and he gets it done. I want that high-floor and high-upside combo on my team. 

I'll also take Howard, Dixon, and Sproles. I think Ware-Howard will work out just fine, but I love the upside that Dixon provides if he earns the feature role. I think there's a chance after seeing him do more with less in limited touches—and I mean more impressive process and result within the context of the plays he had, not in the box score. He also did a better job as a blocker and receiver than West.  

Sproles is my safety option in case Dixon doesn't hit and one of Ware or Howard gets hurt.

Enjoy the weekend! May all of you have David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Stefon Diggs, and Rob Gronkowski on your teams—or at least get performances that make you feel like you do.