The regular season is upon us. The title New Reality is never more accurate. For months dynasty owners have postured through trades, waiver wire moves, and rookie draft selections their bets on how the 2015 reality will look. Now, like a game of boggle, the dynasty assets will shake up and find a new order. Here are the pivotal questions and situations for the opening weeks of the season:
Know Thy Self
Dynasty owners need to know their own tendencies. Do you react strongly to overly poor or strong play early in the season? Will you drop a mid-round rookie who rides the pine to open their first season? Assessing your natural owner qualities as early as possible shapes your ideal strategies. If you are a waiver wire junkie, likely to churn the final roster spots like a dressing room full of outfits, trading away mid-or-late round rookie picks for undervalued veterans or higher projected future picks fit the mindset. If you are patient with developing talent on your roster, nurturing them like a major league farm club, waiver capital will likely be reserved for fewer choice maneuvers throughout the year. The ‘get your guys’ mantra syncs with this type of owner.
Know Rookie Odds
Over the past decade, my rookie draft data tells a sobering Year 1 impact story. The rookie year impact for the consensus 1.01 and 1.02 selections are around 50%. 1.03 and 1.04 are in the 30-35% range. Beyond the top-4 is where things hit the brakes. The rest of the typical top-12 rookie picks sport an average 13% Year 1 hit rate to final a fantasy starter in terms of points-per-game. Round 2? Try 6%. Based on 2015 data, that's a positive sign for Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley. Everyone else? Throwing a dart if pinning hopes on Year 1 meaningful impact.
These numbers outline why drafting for need in a rookie setting is a losing and frustrating battle. Addressing said need position is unlikely to fix the hole in the dynasty roster boat. Investing in rookies are mutual funds – a longer term lens leads to better results. The 2014 rookie class was an outlier and unlikely to be repeating often in 2015 and beyond.
Key Situations & Questions
Will Sam Bradford unlock the Eagles offense?
The Philadelphia offense has been a fertile ground for fantasy production under Chip Kelly, even with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez under center. Bradford is a pivotal player in his own right with top-6 quarterback upside. The Eagles have as many dynasty-viable offensive players as any team in the NFL. We know what we have in Mark Sanchez, but Bradford has the upside to shift the entire offense up a notch. A rising tide lifts all boats. What if Bradford sizzles in the month of September? Will owners cash out due to his checkered past, or ride the wave to a potential title? The dynasty marketplace will be a hotbed of bets based around Bradford, the Eagles offense, and the odds of sustained prowess.
Lions Backfield Navigation
Ameer Abdullah shook up the dynasty circuit with his early preseason play. Abdullah went from a mid-to-late Round 1 rookie asset to commonly in the top-5. Owners are now expecting Reggie Bush-like production - or more. In the power back role Joique Bell was penciled in for double-digit touchdowns and 25+ receptions early this offseason. With injuries and uncertainly leading into Week 1 for Bell, preseason darling and strong metric prospect rookie Zach Zenner is firmly in high-upside sleeper zone.
Cowboys Backfield Navigation
We thought a major free agent signing was coming early in 2015. Dallas passed. We thought an impact rookie was in play. Dallas passed. Joseph Randle had all the shine. The problem is he is an average-at-best physical talent. Darren McFadden is a better power runner but held together with duct tape and years past his prime NFL seasons. McFadden looked a tier or two better than Randle in the preseason. Finally, Dallas trades for Christine Michael, the most physically talented of the three but with question marks surrounding if he ‘gets it’ and will do the ancillary things to get (and stay) on the field. Some project a frustrating committee to fade in 2015. I am on the other side, projecting value. Randle now has little market value with two more physically appealing options as competition. McFadden is dirt-cheap and requires nothing more than a late rookie pick to acquire. Michael has settled in the future Round 1 rookie pick range. Both are palatable investments because the upside is present, even with a strong game or two in-season, to profit independent of the usable games beyond the flash.
Undervalued Running Backs
No position has bigger swings in value than fantasy running backs. A single injury paves the way for the ‘next man up’ to be at least a flex play based on volume alone. By the end of the season a few NFL teams will be giving 10+ touches a week to backs off the typical fantasy radar back in August. Getting running back production without paying premium prices is a trump card. In my historical look at finding undervalued RB1 production, key traits are:
- Draft Pedigree: Day 2 or better NFL Draft picks are preferred
- Age: 27 years old or younger (with 25 or younger preferred)
- Depth Chart: Most enter the season as projected 1A backfield options, but with beaten down fantasy stock
- Redraft Cost: The sweet spot for ADP is in the RB20-30 range
Two backs who fit these criteria for 2015 are Bishop Sankey and Doug Martin. Both have beaten up stock without strong seasons in 2014. However, Sankey and Martin are projected Week 1 starters coming at a very reasonable cost.
Finding Tight End Value
Rolling Rob Gronkowski out in starting lineups is an enviable position for a dynasty team. Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, and Martellus Bennett owners feel pretty good about their weekly standing as well. However, there will be a tight end or two (or three) to join the group, or surpass them, this season for a fraction of the cost. Here are a few of my best bests to be weekly mid-TE1 options:
Josh Hill: Touchdowns tilt the tight end position, Hill has a cleared out Saints passing game pecking order, a high touchdown rate in his NFL career, and Drew Brees. I will take my shot with Hill.
Tyler Eifert: He was on pace for a potential breakout season in 2014 before injury derailed his chances. The formula for a high-end fantasy tight end is not ideal with a strong WR1 in A.J. Green and ho-hum quarterback in Andy Dalton, but Round 1 drafted tight ends rarely bust without TE1 fantasy seasons. Continue to bet on Eifert.
Ladarius Green: The audition without Antonio Gates is finally here for the metric marvel. September has the subtitle ‘The Month of Ladarius’. Green could get momentum to finally get his pass route count up to fantasy relevancy as we have seen the big plays over his part-time NFL career to-date.
Owen Daniels, Virgil Green: At their current prices, both are quality bets (Green more as an injury hedge for Daniels). Daniels has TE1 appeal for TE2 prices.
Derek Carrier: Who? An under-the-radar move this preseason was Washington, after losing Niles Paul for the season, trading for strong metric prospect Derek Carrier from San Francisco. The oft-injured Jordan Reed is the only thing standing in Carrier’s way from a significant uptick in playing time. Niles Paul, not a world-beater, was on the TE1 radar in 2014 due to situation alone.
Be Patient, Persistent
Remember Odell Beckham last August and September? He was falling down rookie draft boards with a lingering injury and traded for a fraction of his May dynasty price tag. He was out of sight and out of mind. The draft pedigree was still there and an optimistic depth chart awaited him when back on the field. While Beckham’s level of later-season impact is unlikely to be seen again from an incoming rookie receiver, short-term oscillations in market value are widely available each season. Names to keep in mind as trade targets if they are slow starters or out of sight, out of mind in the opening weeks:
Production Green Light when Healthy
- DeVante Parker
- Breshad Perriman
- Kevin White (longer-range target)
Murky Depth Charts or Quarterbacks, Talent to Emerge
- Michael Floyd (Perk of looming free agency)
- Donte Moncrief
- Jaelen Strong
- DeAndre Smelter
Whether it is post-Week 1 or later in the season, pursue players like the above list via trade. Parker and Perriman were routine mid-Round 1 rookie draft targets in May. Nothing has fundamentally changed since. Kevin White was the 1.03 (or higher) in early rookie drafts. Taking the long-term view of rookie development on the back-end of your dynasty roster creates value in acquisition when others discount based on early missed games. Moncrief, Strong, and Smelter all have strong metrics and profiles to be difference-makers if their skills and depth chart sync in the next year or two. Bet on them until proven otherwise.