UPDATED 6/20/16: As I mentioned in my Pre-Draft rankings, when I draft, I always have a tier sheet handy. I find that organizing players by tiers is far more beneficial than merely ranking players.
I could rank Odell Beckham Jr over Julio Jones, but it is impossible to truly predict who will finish better between the two of them. Maybe Jones has fifty more yards on the season then ODB, or maybe Beckham has one more touchdown. Who knows; but I do know that both should finish better than a guy like Alshon Jeffery.
These rankings have already changed considerably since the draft and I will continue to update them as the pre-season progresses.
QUARTERBACK TIERS
Tier 1
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Injuries to his wide receivers and Fat Eddie killed him. “Fat Eddie” is now “In Shape Eddie” plus Jordy Nelson is back. The addition of Jared Cook could possibly help as well. Remember, in 2014 he threw for 4,381 yards and 38 TDs, adding 269 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. He put up even bigger numbers in 2012 and 2011.
Cam Newton, Panthers – Dominated last season with a pathetic wide receiver core. This year he gets back Kelvin Benjamin, plus Devin Funchess will be in his second year after flashing late last season.
Tier 2
Andrew Luck, Colts – Injury riddled season and recency bias will make Luck and Rodgers steals in early drafts. Expect a major bounce back. They also don’t have much of a run game or defense, so look for them to pass often.
Drew Brees, Saints - As sure a thing as there is at the QB position. The additions of Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener, plus a healthy C.J. Spiller will help ensure Brees is a top options once again.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks – Showed last year that he can have success as a pocket passer. He will have even better weapons available to him this season.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – The loss of Martavis Bryant hurts, but Sammie Coates Jr and Ladarius Green should provide sufficient firepower to make up for his loss.
Tier 3
Tom Brady, Patriots – Would be in Tier 1 if not suspended, but between missing 4 games and his bye week, that's essentially over 30% of the fantasy season right there.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals – Weapons galore and he will always take his shots.
Tier 4
Matthew Stafford, Lions – The teams early 2015 struggles weren’t his fault. Came on big time after OC Cooter took over (17tds and only 1int) and they beefed up the offensive line this off-season. Severely under-drafted at the moment.
Tony Romo, Cowboys – Witten older, Dez never truly featured and more reliance on the run game makes Romo a solid but not elite option. You also have to hold your breath every time he lands on that shoulder.
Philip Rivers, Chargers – Has a chance to be a Top 5 QB and reliable starter if offensive line and wide receivers stay healthy. They were starting third stringers at both positions by mid-season last year. If all goes well, he's a steal.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars – Young team loaded with weapons started to blossom last year and should continue to improve this season. But better defense could lead to less garbage time production.
Derek Carr, Raiders – This is a young offense on the rise and he proved that he was the one that made Davante Adams look good in college, not the other way around.
Tier 5
Andy Dalton, Bengals –Additions of LaFell and Boyd should make up for the loss of Sanu and Jones. But you just can’t rely on him to be your QB1 despite stretches of great play. It’s the untrustworthy factor that keeps him here.
Marcus Mariota, Titans – They’ve beefed up the run game, wide receiver core and offensive line. I’m a believer.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins – Addition of rookie Doctson provides Cousins with a WR1 to go along with an already solid receiving core.
Matt Ryan, Falcons – Talent isn't a question, but lack of receiving talent beyond Julio Jones still a concern. Improved offensive line should help at least.
Jay Cutler, Bears – A healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White could mean big numbers for Cutler, but like Dalton, huge weeks can always lead to some major duds. John Fox would also love for the run game to be the teams’ offensive foundation.
Joe Flacco, Ravens – He has an arsenal of weapons this year and OC Marc Trestman likes to throw.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers – Has solid weapons and has dedicated the off-season to getting into shape and fine-tuning his craft. Lots of weapons (including intriguing second year player Kenny Bell) and he did throw for more than 4,000 yards as a rookie.
Eli Manning, Giants – Additions of Sterling Shepard, Paul Perkins, Roger Lewis and the return of Victor Cruz provides much needed firepower.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins – If he could just complete some deep passes I would move him up a tier.
Tier 6
Tyrod Taylor, Bills – Consistency will be key for him, but he throws a nice deep ball. But Watkins has a foot injury and still a run first team though.
Robert Griffin III III, Browns – If they get Josh Gordon back, this guy moves up. While I like the rookie wide receiver additions, you can’t expect the world from them either.
Sam Bradford, Eagles – Good supporting cast, as long as he wins the job, will be a solid QB2.
Alex Smith, Chiefs – two words: Alex. Smith. He’s not like a box of chocolates.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Jets – Lots of weapons and Chan Gaily loves to throw it around. Just need to get him in camp before moving him up.
Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings – Limited passer, and even with the addition of Treadwell, this is AP’s team.
Tier 7
Brock Osweiler, Texans – John Elway didn’t believe in Brock after 4 years, I don’t either.
Mark Sanchez, Broncos – Could surprise in real life, but probably not reliable fantasy option. Injured right now as well.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers - Will he really lose his job to Gabbert again? If anyone can get the most out of him it’s Chip Kelly. Run Kaep, Run.
Tier 8
Jared Goff, Rams – Lack of weapons and an offensive line will keep the ball in Gurley’s belly. Bright future, but this might be rough.
Blaine Gabbert, 49ers – He’s actually a much better passer than Kaep. He’s just terrified of being tackled and nobody to throw to.
Geno Smith, Jets – Fitzpatrick has to sign, right? Right!
Carson Wentz, Eagles – Will probably start at some point this season.
Josh McCown, Browns – Hopefully the Browns don’t need him, but should do okay if they do.
Brian Hoyer, Bears – Cutler does seemingly get hurt every season.
Paxton Lynch, Broncos – They have to hope he doesn’t need to play this year, but great dynasty future.
Chase Daniel, Eagles – Might be their starter if Bradford goes down.
RUNNING BACK TIERS
Tier 1
Todd Gurley, Rams – Fully healthy and the foundation of their offense.
LeVeon Bell, Steelers – Looks like rehab going better than expected. Anyone remember what Adrian Peterson did the year after tearing his knee? 2,097 yards and 13 TDs. I could see that.
Tier 2
Ezekiel Elliot, Cowboys – Unreal landing spot and he can do it all. The Cowboys will want to limit the wear and tear on Romo as well.
Lamar Miller, Texans – Rock solid RB1 who could finish in the top 3.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Betting against him is never good, but while he performed well last season, he seemed to have lost just a step on some of his runs. They also have a decent receiving core with the addition of Treadwell to go along with Diggs.
David Johnson, Cardinals – Should be their workhorse back and will see light boxes. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington will still get a few touches, but only enough to knock Johnson down to Tier 2.
Eddie Lacy, Packers – Fat Eddie is now Phat Eddie after jacking up in the off-season. Has the talent and situation to put up Tier 1 numbers.
Mark Ingram, Saints – Steady option that was the third overall running back before he went down in Week 13. He has also not played more than 13 games since 2012.
Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Chip likes to run more than pass and Hyde has experience running his inside zone running scheme. He's one of the leagues true featured backs that will push 20+ touches every game.
Tier 3
Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Freeman did most of his damage over only four games last year. I’m not entirely sold like some. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Coleman got the ball more than people are expecting forming a Hill/Bernard type combo.
C.J. Anderson, Broncos – Was the foundation of their offense during last season’s playoff run. Rookie Booker more of a compliment back that should keep Anderson fresh rather than steal his job.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Don’t ever count this guy out, but goal line looks could go to Ware to keep him fresh coming off second ACL injury.
LeSean McCoy, Bills – Run heavy team, including top 3 last year in the redzone, and somehow only 27 years old, but Karlos Williams and Jonathan Williams are both talented enough to cut into McCoy’s workload. Seems to get banged up every year too.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers – I’m probably lower on him than I should be. A better standard league option.
Tier 4
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks – He wasn’t the passing down back last season and still put up monster numbers. Positive signs so far in his rehab. If he is a full go by pre-season, you can move him up.
Jay Ajayi, Dolphins – Would have been my second rated running back if he came out this year. Similar profile to Marshawn Lynch with great hands. Went 50/535/4 through the air his final year of college, while adding another 347/1,823/28 on the ground. Not just a two down back and drawing early raves in camp.
Matt Forte, Jets – As long as Fitzpatrick re-signs, Forte will end up being a solid PPR value in drafts. Powell will steal some touches, but very few feature backs and he could catch a ton of balls in this offense.
DeMarco Murray, Titans – Derrick Henry will steal touches, and maybe the ones that count, but Murray will be their lead back … at least this year.
Jeremy Hill, Bengals – Still young and talented. I think they go to him more this season with very little receiving options outside of Green and (an injured) Eifert. The Bengals also finished last season top 5 in rushing percent in the redzone.
Ryan Mathews, Eagles – Big winner from the draft. He’s their guy and produces when he's on the field. Just needs to stay healthy. He never stays healthy.
Tier 5
Dion Lewis, Patriots – Rehab is key. Talent isn’t a question. Will move up to Tier 3 if he's all systems go.
Danny Woodhead, Chargers – PPR gold.
Giovani Bernard, Bengals – PPR silver.
Duke Johnson Jr, Browns – Could be a major sleeper and move up the board as the season gets closer. The Browns could have easily used one of their many draft picks on a running back and they didn’t. Going to handle the Gio Bernard role plus more in Hue Jackson’s offense. Hue Jackson had the fourth highest rushing percentage in the redzone last season.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – They didn’t add anything in the draft, so he’s their workhorse. Yet, how many times did he kill you in DFS last year? Cam and Tolbert will once again vulture the goalline carries.
Frank Gore, Colts –Actually ran pretty well last year. Great pickup at his current 7th round ADP as your 3rd or 4th running back, but best but best to let someone else take the 33 year old if his ADP rises.
Matt Jones, Redskins – His body and hair fly’s in all directions, but that doesn’t mean he’s always going in the right direction as evidenced by his pathetic 3.4 yac last year. When he ends up in the doghouse for fumbling again, my money is on Keith Marshall.
Tier 6
Latavius Murray, Raiders – Not an elite back despite year end numbers. Wouldn't be suprised to see rookie DeAndre Washington steal touches and possibly his job.
Ameer Abdullah, Lions – Love the talent, but he’s not going to be a true workhorse back with Ridley in town and Riddick a pass catching beast.
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars – Addition of Ivory is a major buzz kill and for some reason they just don’t trust him near the goal-line. Has the talent to be a RB1, but may have to wait a year or two now.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers – Major disappointment (at least for those who believed in him). Rookie wall and the decimation of their offensive line and receiving core didn’t help though. Juries still out especially with Woodhead in the mix.
Jeremy Langford, Bears – Should be drafted as a PPR flex option, which means I’m probably never drafting him.
Charles Sims, Buccaneers – Underrated weekly PPR flex and bye week option. Managed 51/1,090/4 all-purpose yards. Look for those numbers to go up as he managed 4.9 yards per carry and flashed big time as a receiver. If Martin goes down, Sims value goes way up.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns – Will form a RBBC with Duke Johnson Jr. A team built on analytics seems to be sold on him as their bigger back. Hopefully RG3 and a new wide receiving core can keep defenses honest and open things up for him. Has good intangibles but Duke could run away with the starting job too.
Justin Forsett, Ravens – Entering his age 31 season and rookie Dixon could be this years David Johnson.
Tier 7
Rashad Jennings, Giants – Crowded backfield with Vereen and the addition of Paul Perkins. Jennings is the best of the bunch at the moment, but rarely stays healthy.
Chris Ivory, Jaguars – Time-share with Yeldon. Should get the goal line and short yardage work.
Jordan Howard, Bears – Has a bit of an injury history, but a big and powerful running back that should easily assume early down and goal-line work for the Bears. John Fox wants the run game to be the teams’ foundation, as he did in Carolina.
Legarrette Blount, Patriots - They didn't grab a back in the draft and Lewis is coming off injury. Should handle early down work, although never truly reliable since the Patriots offense is often game specific. Donald Brown could steal some touches.
Kenneth Dixon, Ravens – Will eventually take over lead duties from Forsett as David Johnson did in Arizona last year. Similar type of talent.
Shane Vereen, Giants – Should catch 50+ balls this year.
CJ Prosise, Seahawks – Big (6'1” 220lbs) and fast (4.48 forty). Needs to work on his game after only playing one year of running back in college after changing over from a wide receiver, but has a high ceiling if it all comes together. Should start the season as their passing-down compliment to Thomas Rawls, but his ability to learn to better pass protect will be key to getting and staying on the field.
Derrick Henry, Titans – Won’t be their lead guy, but could score a lot of TD’s. A better standard league grab. I'm not sold on his talents as others are. Think Brandon Jacobs at his best.
Theo Riddick, Lions – Needs an injury ahead of him or for Abdullah to face plant to rely on week-to-week, but that happened last year when he caught 80 passes.
Tier 8
Tevin Coleman, Falcons – Talented enough to steal meaningful touches from Freeman and would be an immediate RB1 if Freeman goes down. No better handcuff and deep bench stash.
DeAndre Washington, Raiders – Short, but thick receiver in the MJD mold. They would like him to be the receiving compliment to Murray, but could end up being much more.
Keith Marshall, Washington – He’s big (5’11” 219lbs) and fast (4.31 forty). As value, I prefer him later over Matt Jones earlier. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones in the doghouse again and Marshall shine when given a chance.
Spencer Ware, Chiefs – Won’t get many touches, but could get the ones that count. Wouldn’t be shocked if he scored 8+ TDs.
Paul Perkins, Giants – Lots of competition here, but has juice, good balance and body control. Decent in pass protection so could carve out a role or even take over lead duties if Jennings isn't getting it done. If you're looking for upside in a Giants running back, he's your target.
Bilal Powell, Jets – Handcuff to 30 year old Matt Forte and will get a handful of touches every week.
Karlos Williams, Bills – Will form a committee behind McCoy with talented rookie Jonathan Williams. Despite his talent, not sure he is even the true handcuff since all three backs talented.
DeAngelo Williams, Steelers – Handcuff to an elite running back coming off a serious knee injury. Must own for all Bell owners.
James Starks, Packers – Must own handcuff to Lacy.
Jerick McKinnon, Vikings – Must own handcuff for Peterson.
Tier 9
C.J. Spiller, Saints – I don’t think he ever got over his foot injury, which kept him out of the pre-season and start of last season. Boom or bust in the biggest way.
Andre Ellington, Cardinals – Played on 31% of the snpas in games he played, but will see only a handful of touches a game unless there is an injury to Johnson.
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins – Explosive for his size (6’1” 210lbs - 4.45 forty), but not a lead back. More of a package specific player, but conceivable he could be the Charles Sims to Ajayi’s Doug Martin. Horrible in pass pro in college, which isn't good for him seeing the field.
Devante Booker, Broncos – Despite his size, he’s more of a complimentary back. Would be the lead in the committee if Anderson went down or faltered.
Stevan Ridley, Lions – Now fully recovered from his knee injury, the Lions early favorite for early down work. Draft Twitter loves the idea of Zack Zenner, but Ridley is a seasoned pro.
Javorius Allen, Ravens – Going to be a 3rd down specialist at best and probably just a special teams player.
Christine Michael, Seahawks – Seems to have had a change of attitude on his second deployment with the Seahawks. Nothing more than a handcuff to Rawls at the moment still.
Wendall Smallwood, Eagles - He displays a nice combination of vision, lateral quickness and speed. The current handcuff for Matthews who has a substantial injury history. Could act as their change of pace back right away if Sproles has nothing left ... and he might not.
Donald Brown, Patriots - Sneaky sleeper to handle early down work if Blount falters. He's not special, but the Patriots don't require their back to be.
Jonathan Williams, Bills – True three down running back who noted analyst Greg Cosell compared favorably to Ezekiel Elliot. Missed all of 2015 with injury but had a 101.9 elusive rating in 2014 that would have been good enough for second in 2015. Great dynasty hold and more talented than Karlos Williams but behind Shady and him for now.
Tyler Ervin, Texans – Not big (5’10” 192 lbs - 4.41 Forty), but has good balance, is tough, fast and explosive. A bit of Brian Westbrook to him. Will form a committee if Lamar Miller went down, but he would be my target.
Tier 10
Alfred Morris, Cowboys – Best left on the waiver wire. Maybe he will get you some touchdowns in standard leagues, but can you really rely on that week-to-week?
Darren McFadden, Cowboys – Purely a handcuff for Elliot.
Tre Mason, Rams – Most likely the handcuff to Gurley and has talent. But off-field issues and dedication are a concern.
Chris Johnson, Cardinals – Should be the handcuff to David Johnson and played well when he was their guy.
Charcandrick West, Chiefs – Will need an injury to Charles and then still a part time player.
Arian Foster, TBD – Beset with soft tissue injuries and now coming off an achillies tear. He didn't have a lot of juice to begin with as he enters his year 30 season. He is a false fantasy boogie man.
Robert Turbin, Colts – The backup to Frank Gore. Not sexy, but competent.
Lance Dunbar, Cowboys – Was prolific catching passes last year for them, but Elliot may never leave the filed.
Darren Sproles, Eagles – Getting up their in age, not sure you can expect too much.
Dexter McCluster, Titans – Will get a handful of touches a game, but tough to rely on for any real production.
Zach Zenner, Lions – Signing of Ridley a major buzz kill. Monitor him during the pre-season; Abdullah is not going to be a workhorse.
Kelvin Taylor, 49ers – A downhill no nonsense runner that should acts as Hyde’s handcuff.
Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers – Just a guy.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos – Will form a committee with rookie Booker if Anderson falters or goes down.
KaDeem Carey, Bears – Needs some injuries.
WIDE RECEIVER TIERS
Tier 1
Antonio Brown, Steelers – The best wide receiver in Fantasy as long as Big Ben stays healthy.
Odell Beckham Jr Giants – Sterling Shepard and the return of Victor Cruz should actually help him.
Julio Jones, Falcons – An absolute beast and he’s the only game in town.
Tier 2
A.J. Green, Bengals – The focal point of their offense who will probably get force fed the ball even more with Eifert injured and Jones and Sanu gone. The three players in Tier 1 are interchangable in draft position, Green falls just after them, keeping him in Tier 2.
Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Lack of truly being featured in the past keeps him out of the first tier, but there is no more talented a wide receiver in the league and addition of new OC Scott Linehan has history of force feeding WR1's (see Calvin Johnson). Recency bias may allow you to grab him in the 2nd round of drafts.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texas – Brock not much of an upgrade over Hoyer, if at all, but Fuller and Lamar Miller should help open up some space for him.
Allen Robinson, Jaguars – Will be even better this year to make up for any touchdown regressions (14 last year).
Tier 3
Keenan Allen, Chargers – Was on pace for a 134/1,450/8 line before he went down in Week 8 last season with a lacerated kidney. I preached last pre-season that he had Antonio Brown upside and he was proving me right. Just needs to stay healthy, which has been a problem going back to college and why I don't have him at the top of Tier 2.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers – He’s a better player than he showed last season.
Jordy Nelson, Packers –Is already back running in their off-season program. He’ll be 31 this year, but no reason to think his play will fall off. Rodgers loves him.
Alshon Jeffery Bears – If the guy could just stretch properly before he played.
Amari Cooper, Raiders –He hit the rookie wall last season, but he is capable of being a Tier 1 receiver.
Brandon Marshall, Jets – Will this be the year he finally slows down? I doubt it. No reason he doesn’t have another 109/1,502/14 line this season.
Tier 4
Brandin Cooks, Saints – Proved many doubters wrong going 84/1,138/9. He’s also just 22 years old.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts – Luck’s go to guy stymied last year by bad quarterback play.
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – Should actually have a better season with Mark Sanchez at the helm, but not really sure what that’s saying. We obviously know his insane upside, but he’s not playing with 2013 Peyton Manning.
Sammy Watkins, Bills – Foot injury is a concern, otherwise would be up in Tier 2 or 3. If he is good to go for the start of pre-season, then move him up, if not, we saw what a foot injury did to C.J. Spiller last season so move him down.
Tier 5
Randall Cobb, Packers – With Jordy back, he’ll be back to being an every week high end WR2 in PPR leagues.
Donte Moncrief, Colts – Big time talent that is only 22 years old. Should be locked and loaded as a solid WR2 if Luck stays healthy and he may be the break out receiver of this season.
Golden Tate, Lions – Stafford loves to throw and Tate is going to be his go to guy.
Eric Decker, Jets – Put up 80/1,027/12 last season. Should see a similar line this season if Fitzpatrick re-signs. Slight touchdown regression certainly possible though.
Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers – Cam playing better and he will resume his role as their top dog. Garbage time TDs won't be as frequent though.
Julian Edelman, Patriots – The four game Brady suspension hurts. Couple that with their bye week and that means a diminished Edelman for more than a third of the regular fantasy season. He’s great, but probably let someone else over draft him especially coming off foot surgery.
Tier 6
Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs – Injury a major buzz kill after putting up 87/1,088/8. If he's fully healed, he will exceed this ranking.
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins – A 111/1,159/6 line seems like it should be a yearly occurrence for Landry. Once bodies start flying, Tannehill will once again look his way despite other options.
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos – Conceding I could be too low on him.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks – His production last season was no fluke, but progress of Tyler Lockett and return of Jimmy Graham could cap some of the upside.
Tier 7
Michael Floyd, Cardinals – Floyd, Brown and Fitzgerald are all extremely talented, you just don’t know which one will go off each week, capping their upside. Taking one in a MFL10 seems like a good strategy. My bet is on Floyd or Brown this year.
John Brown, Cardinals – See Floyd, Michael.
Kevin White, Bears – It is entirely possible he is a Top 10 wide receiver next year, making that Allen Robinson type leap. He would have been the best wide receiver in this year’s class.
Michael Crabtree, Raiders – Should be an 85-catch guy again this year. What a difference a quarterback makes.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – See Floyd, Michael.
DeSean Jackson, Redskins – Lots of mouths to feed. He’s a better standard and best ball player, than PPR guy. Love his talent; they just aren’t going to be maximized in this offense.
Jordan Matthews, Eagles – Despite the hype, he’s best as a complimentary receiver and your WR3.
Stefon Diggs, Vikings – Maybe less catches than Landry, but probably more yards.
Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans – Has the potential to be truly dominant after a year under his belt and after missing a full season of college football. Him and White have massive upside so he is someone to target in all drafts.
DeVante Parker, Dolphins – Not as big a believer in his talents as some others. Don’t see him as a true number one and wouldn’t be surprised if Leonte Carroo ate into his production like Rishard Matthews did last year.
Tier 8
Marvin Jones, Lions – One of the big winners from the draft. Underrated talent with a nose for the endzone, but don’t overdraft either.
Torrey Smith, Ravens – Even though Chip is great at scheming wide receivers open, Smith still has to play with Kaepernick or Gabbert. I’m not buying a huge bounce back to where he can regularly be relied on in fantasy beyond your bye week replacement or flex starter. Will have some big weeks.
Laquon Treadwell, Vikings – 75/850/8 certainly possible, but this team is built around the run game and Bridgewater just doesn’t throw enough.
Corey Coleman, Browns – Love the player and he is destined to be over-drafted this year. Still needs a bit of time to learn full route tree. He’s not Odell Beckham Jr yet, but has a chance to be ODB3 in the future.
Willie Snead, Saints – Emerged as a reliable target for Brees, but might be third on the pecking order this year behind Cooks and Fleener.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks – He’s a baller but a run first team and Jimmy Graham should be back. Talent isn't a question.
Allen Hurns, Jaguars – He was right there with Allen Robinson for a lot of the season, but reduction in targets and garbage time TDs will drop his numbers.
Kamar Aiken, Ravens – If Steve Smith can’t return to form, he is their possession receiver and Flacco loves him. Underrated talent that would move up to Tier 7 or 8.
Tier 9
Travis Benjamin, Chargers – Great fit. Could easily catch 10+ TDs, but those TDs might come in bunches, so tough to rely on from week-to-week.
Mike Wallace, Ravens – Back with a quarterback that can take advantage of his talents. A 2011 72/1193/8 line not out of the realm of possibility and he's starting as of now.
Josh Gordon, Browns – I have a gut feeling he will be back and if he is, move him up to Tier 3. Risk is mitigated at this point in the draft.
Sterling Shepard, Giants – Great landing spot. While his route running has been heavily lauded, it’s his toughness and fight for the ball that won me over. He’s a more athletic Jarvis Landry. Will man the slot and guzzle up catches like Julien Edelman.
Michael Thomas, Saints – Should push Brandon Coleman to the bench as the teams slot receiver. Bright future ahead
Nelson Agholor, Eagles – Looks like they might move him into the slot with Randle and Matthews outside, which would be good for his value.
Pierre Garcon, Washington – Lots of mouths to feed with Rookie Doctson on the team now in addition to emergence of Jamison Crowder.
Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers – Entering his age 33 season. Let someone else grab him.
Tavon Austin, Rams – The addition of Goff should help, but he’s never going to be a reliable weekly option until they get more creative with his use.
Brandon LaFell, Bengals – He played injured all season and it showed. Expect a bounce back as their #2 wide receiver, although third on the pecking order behind Green and Eifert.
Josh Doctson, Washington – Love the player, but lots of mouths to feed. And while Cousins is a limited player, the Gruden/Dalton connection did okay for AJ Green. A true breakout is probably a year away.
Sammie Coates Jr, Steelers – An athletic clone of Martavis Bryant, he just has to show he can hold onto the ball. Could be a major steal if things click. Great MFL10 pickup.
Steve Smith, Ravens – One of my favorite players ever, but he’s old and coming off a serious injury. I would never count him out, but I’m not drafting him either.
Kendall Wright, Titans – Yardage and touchdown totals will never be high, but should catch 80+ passes.
Anquan Boldin, TBD – Like Steve Smith, don’t ever count this guy out.
Tier 10
Phillip Dorsett, Colts – Lots of mouths to feed, but Luck can take advantage of his speed. Should be in all three wide sets, which they use a lot of especially with a suspect run game. Might move him up the board once we get a proper look at OTAs.
Devin Funchess, Panthers – The light started to turn on towards the end of the season. The return of Kelvin Benjamin should help him see plus matchups.
Steven Johnson, Chargers – Was plagued with injuries last season to himself and his team, giving Rivers little time to run their offense properly. Should bounce back as a solid PPR bench option.
Markus Wheaton, Steelers – Martavis Bryant suspension helps and started to come on last year in the playoffs.
Rishard Matthews, Titans – Will be a better real life player than a fantasy player. No better than 4th on the pecking order.
Mohamed Sanu, Falcons – Just a guy, but he’ll be starting.
Robert Woods, Bills - The #2 wide receiver on the team, but fourth on the pecking order for targets. If Watkins can't go, bump him up.
Chris Hogan, Patriots – Needs to win the starting job first. Not impossible for him to beat out Amendola.
Tier 11
Brian Quick, Rams – The best bet still to lead the Rams in receiving.
Kenny Britt, Rams – Goff should help, but this team runs through Gurley
Terrance Williams, Cowboys – He will catch 1 TD on 2 catches with 4 targets for three or four games in a row … don’t bite.
Kenny Stills, Dolphins – Has never realized his full potential, and with Tannehill and an influx of new receivers, that doesn’t look like it will happen this year either.
Bruce Ellington, 49ers - Chip Kelly is "intrigued" by him. Cousin to Andre, they are similar players that can both handle the slot or even handle some carries out of the backfield. Great late round snag since Kelly is a cretive offensive mind that can utilize his talents and there really is nothing on this team outside of Hyde. Ran 4.45 forty with impressive 39.5 vertical.
Victor Cruz, Giants – Essentially just a dart throw until you actually see him put in a few weeks of full practice and a pre-season game or two. He may never recover from his injury properly.
Tier 11
Breshad Perriman, Ravens – Is he healthy yet? Bueller, Bueller. WR1 potential if he’s actually healthy. But he's not healthy.
Kenny Bell, Buccaneers – A Matt Waldman favorite. He has 4.42-speed, a 41.5-inch vertical, a good quarterback and has only a 33 year old Vincent Jackson in his way. He should be targeted later in drafts aggressively.
Will Fuller, Texans – Remember how well Emannuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas did with Brock at the helm? And Fuller is no Sanders or Thomas.
Rueben Randle, Eagles - Has a shot to start on the outside along with Matthews and with Agholor in the slot. Tons of theoritical talent, but cotninues to underachiever.
Tajae Sharp, Titans – More of a slot player, playing on a team already with a great slot player. But he's been showing well in practice so far.
Cecil Shorts, Texans - Will man the slot in all three wide sets. But this is a run first team with an alpha number one receiver in Hopkins.
T.J. Jones, Lions – Some size and speed (6’ 190lbs and 4.48 forty). Worth monitoring during pre-season to see if he can win the 3rd receiver role. Would be their deep threat, which holds value.
Jeff Janis, Packers – Started coming on, could have decent value if he wins their third receiver job. There is value to be had in this offense.
Malcolm Mitchell, Patriots - 6'0” 198lbs and ran a 4.45 forty. A lot to like: runs great routes, good hands, yac and toughness. Injuries stunted his college production, but should start for the Pats at some point this season. There’s certainly value in that. Has an outside chance to be the most productive first year receiver in this year’s rookie class.
Jamison Crowder, Redskins – Did well in the slot, but now even more mouths to feed.
Jaelen Strong, Texans – Will still be buried on their depth chart.
Terrelle Pryor, Browns - Rave reviews early in OTA's. He's a gifted athlete and there is opportunity on this team, so worth a flyer at this point. He could also just be another Cordarrelle Patterson.
Tier 12
Albert Wilson, Chiefs – Wilson, Conley and Streater all have talent and it’s worth monitoring who wins out in camp in addition to tracking Maclin’s recovery from injury. Unfortunately there just isn’t a ton of production to go around in this offense, but the winner of that battle can be moved up.
Chris Conley, Chiefs – See Wilson, Albert.
Rod Streater, Chiefs – See Wilson, Albert.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals – Not an elite athlete and sometimes issues with separation, but runs good routes, good hands and physical for size. Will man the slot with Lafell and Green outside. PPR guy.
Cole Beasley, Cowboys - Could have 3 or 4 catches a game, but not much upside.
Leonard Hankerson, Bills - Looking good in camp once again, but he just drops too many passes. Will have a few usable weeks especially with Watkins injured.
Paul Richardson Jr, Seahawks – Was placed on IR last year after not being able to get healthy from his rookie year knee injury. There is plenty of talent here. Matt Waldman loved him coming out of college and on the filed saw little difference between him and Sammy Watkins at times.
Kenbrell Thompkins, Jets –Currently the #3 wide receiver on a team that likes to use four receivers.
Danny Amendola, Patriots - Took a pay cut to stay with the team and still may be cut.
Jermaine Kearse, Seahawks – His 49/685/5 line from 2015 is his absolute ceiling and with Lockett ascending and the return of Paul Richardson Jr, not much value here.
Stephen Hill, Panthers - Maybe ... but probably not. But maybe. If you are looking for upside on your final pick, he's it.
J.J. Nelson, Cardinals – Deep threat speedster (5’10 165lbs with 4.28 forty) that needs an injury in front of him to have any reliable impact.
Davante Adams, Packers – He’s a disaster. There has been talk he may be cut.
Tier 13
Mike Thomas, Rams – Good size and speed (6'1" 200lbs - 4.5 forty) and plays even bigger with toughness and physicality. Could emerge to be a reliable WR2, but probably a year away as he adjusts to the NFL game and while he plays with a rookie QB.
Rashard Higgins, Browns – Not a great athlete, but does everything well. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception is a fan.
Keyarris Garrett, Panthers - Inexplicably went undrafted, but landing on a team in need of additional receiving weapons. He is big (6’3” 220lbs), fast (4.53 forty) and only dropped 3 of the 99 catchable passes thrown his way in 2015. Someone to monitor in camp.
Roger Lewis - Giants – Solid athlete (4.46 forty, a 36-inch vertical and 10-foot-5 broad jump) but comes with off-field baggage, which most likely led to going undrafted. There is an opportunity here though with Sheppard in the slot and Beckham on the outside if Cruz can’t get healthy. Someone to watch rather than draft.
Pharaoh Cooper, Rams – A better real life player than a fantasy player this year. Some Golden Tate to his game.
Leonte Carroo, Dolphins – Lots of mouths to feed, so hard to expect much fantasy value. I could see him passing up Kenny Stills like Matthews did last year.
Ted Ginn Jr, Panthers – The return of Benjamin will limit his production big time. It was fun while it lasted though.
Devin Smith, Jets –Has a chance for some big weeks as their deep threat, but better best ball league player than reliable weekly fantasy starter especially since he’s still coming back from major knee injury.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings - Maybe .... nah.
