Unfortunately, a player’s real life talent isn’t always sufficient to make them a great Fantasy Football player. In Fantasy we are looking for players that can provide solid week-to-week consistency; a player you can count on every week to deliver the goods. In this article we examine some players that may be extremely gifted, but due to team philosophy, they may not make the best Fantasy players. Conversely, we will also look at some players that may not have been great for Fantasy previously, but due to a team or coaching change, they are in a much better position to succeed this season. Below are some players that you may want to pump the brakes on and others that are cleared for flight.
PUMP THE BRakeS
Vernon Davis (TE, San Fran): Davis is the best example of this dichotomy between talent and Fantasy production. If he were on the New England Patriots or New Orleans Saints, he would be up there on the Jimmy Graham tier without question. That’s the sort of talent he has. Just to put it in numbers … He is 6’3”, 254 pounds, ran a 4.38 forty, had a 42’ vertical and did 33 bench reps at the combine. Not to mention scoring a very respectable 20 on the Wonderlic. Just to compare, while Jimmy Graham is 3 inches taller, he ran the forty in 4.56 and “only” had a 38.5’ vert. And since I also mentioned New England, Aaron Hernandez was an inch shorter, weighed ten pounds less, ran the forty in 4.64 and had a 33” vert. Yes, Davis is a freak of nature.
The problem with Davis is that he plays for a run first offense in San Francisco. They pound the ball with their running backs, make safe throws and only rarely take deep shots. Last season when Michael Crabtree was out, we certainly saw an uptick in Davis’ numbers, but once Crabtree came back, those numbers went right back down. With a healthy Crabtree and the additions of Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd, it looks like Davis will once again be held in check.
Now that’s not to say he won’t go off any given week, but it’s tough to rely on him to do that on a week-to-week basis like we can rely on a player like Jimmy Graham or Jordan Cameron, who are focal points of their offenses. Maybe this year the Niners will finally decide to switch things up and let Colin Kaepernick take over, but there certainly are no signs of that yet, in fact, quite the opposite.
Ladarius Green (TE, San Diego): Green is everyone’s favorite breakout player in Fantasy this season. But will he be Jimmy Graham or Jared Cook, that’s the big question. For Fantasy players, it seems obvious; besides Keenan Allen, he should be the number two target in the passing game on the team. Unfortunately, coaches don’t care what we think and there are signs that this may not be the year Green breaks out. As we saw as the season went on last year, San Diego is more of a run based offense, which is one reason they brought in Donald Brown and as Michael Gehlken, from the San Diego Union-Tribune mentioned, he expects Green’s role to expand this year, but he doesn’t know to what extend. Simply being on the field more certainly helps, but if he is not being featured in the offense, that may not help you in Fantasy. Antonio Gates has also looked good in camp and has an excellent rapport with Phillip Rivers, then there have been reports that Malcolm Floyd, who missed all of last season due to injury, has been the "runaway" MVP of Chargers camp so far. Unless we see an injury to Gates or Floyd, Green may be still one year away.
Jared Cook (TE, St. Louis): Speaking of Cook, much of what I mentioned about Green and Davis can be transferred right to him. Fortunately, Fantasy players are wise to this by now and his ADP is at the bottom of the barrel. In theory, Shaun Hill, who has a much weaker arm then Sam Bradford, taking over as quarterback could lead to more short and intermediate throws, which could help Cook. Although I wouldn’t count on it, especially since both Kenny Britt and Brian Quick seem to be emerging and Tavon Austin has another year in the offense under his belt.
Mark Ingram (RB, New Orleans): Ingram looked pretty darn good at the end of last season and that has transferred over to this pre-season. He is running hard and gaining yards. In the third pre-season game Ingram broke off a nice17-yard run on the team’s opening drive and has averaged 7 yards-per-carry, carrying the rock 21 times for 148 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the Saints love to use multiple running backs and rarely use Ingram on passing downs, despite his ability to catch the ball. The Saints declined his 5th year option, making Ingram a free agent next season. While he is a pump the brakes candidate this year, next season he could be cleared for flight depending on where he lands.
Percy Harvin (WR, Seattle): At his best, Harvin is easily a top ten receiver in this league, if not pushing the top 5. In fact, PFF had him ranked in the top ten in both 2011 and 2012 despite having poor quarterback play. Unfortunately for Harvin though, Seattle utilizes a conservative offensive scheme that uses the run as its foundation and then peppers in more controlled passing plays. With Russell Wilson now in his third season, it appears that things may start to open up a bit more, but we are probably still a year away from a true turnover in philosophy, if at all. Harvin will have some monster games for sure, but will he reach his full potential in this offense? That’s doubtful.
Tyler Eifert (TE, Cincinnati): Everyone is talking about Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce as this year’s breakout tight ends, and we certainly agree with that, however you will be hard pressed to find anyone that says that those tight ends have much more talent than Eifert. In college, he was more productive then all three of them and he is also both bigger and faster then Ertz and Reed. Unfortunately for Eifert, he plays in a run heavy offense, with a shaky quarterback in Andy Dalton and is competing for playing time with Jermaine Gresham. With Marvin Jones going down this pre-season, there is certainly optimism that Eifert can pick up some of that production and Gresham also did grade out as the NFL’s worst tight end per PFF, but as things stand now, Eifert is in a Fantasy holding pattern.
Sammy Watkins (WR, Buffalo): Watkins has been lauded as the best wide receiver to come out of college since AJ Green. While that may be the case, Buffalo is a run based team with serious quarterback issues. Until we see EJ Manuel play with some sort of consistency, there is just no way you can trust Watkins on a week-to-week basis.
Russell Wilson (QB, Seattle): Even if Seattle lets Wilson throw the ball a bit more, this is still a run based team, which will continue to cap his upside. Next season he certainly may be cleared for flight, but right now, he is still driving around the runway.
Andre Johnson (WR, Houston): Just when we thought the quarterback situation couldn’t get worse, it just may have. Andre Johnson will get his, but just imagine what he would do if he played with Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.
CLEARED FOR FLIGHT
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Minnesota): While still learning the subtleties of the position, Patterson has a rare combination of size (6’2”, 220 pounds), speed and playmaking ability. New Viking’s Offensive Coordinator, Norv Turner, knows exactly how to take advantage of those assets and last season he helped Josh Gordon break out as the league’s top receiver. In fact, thanks to Turner, the Browns were the 11th best passing offense despite having a horrendous trio of quarterbacks to work with. Because Patterson is such a threat with the ball in his hands, Turner has mentioned that he has put in a number of plays to do just that. Turner isn’t afraid to also take a few deep shots every game, which he did with Gordon many times last season and with Vincent Jackson in San Diego before that. Jump aboard, Patterson is ready to fly.
Kyle Rudolph (TE, Minnesota): Similar to Patterson, Rudolph is a prime breakout candidate this season. While it seems as if he has been in the league forever, Rudolph is just 24 years old and has been held back by poor offensive scheme, that used him mostly as a red zone threat, and horrible QB play. Fortunately this season, Norv Turner takes over as the team’s Offensive Coordinator and brings to the Vikings his TE friendly scheme that helped Jordan Cameron and Antonio Gates thrive. He will also finally have a capable quarterback throwing him the ball in either Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater. While Rudolph doesn’t have elite speed, he runs well, has a monster frame, possesses a quick first step and has excellent hands and the body control to win jump balls. For those that miss out or pass up on the elite three or four guys, he is an excellent cheap upside pick. Minnesota also just extended him to the tune of five-years and $36.5 million, so they clearly believe in his talents.
Toby Gerhart (RB, Jacksonville): Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley and offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch come from the Peter Carroll school of thought and are trying to institute a Seattle based type offense. The Jags want to run the ball and they brought in Gerhart to do just that, as they see him as their version of Marshawn Lynch. For the past four years, Gerhart has waited patiently behind the league’s best running back in Adrian Peterson, but when given the chance, Gerhart has shone. In seven of his ten career games when he received at least ten touches, he scored in the double-digits for Fantasy. Gerhart isn’t overly fast, but he does have a bit of juice, is a load to take down and has the ability to get down field. He also is pretty darn good at catching balls out the backfield, so he is also a PPR guy that projects as a three down back in this offense. For those that do take a shot on Gerhart, I suggest grabbing Storm Johnson as his handcuff. While still buried a bit on the depth chart at the moment, if given a chance to start, Johnson will be this year’s Zach Stacy.
Mike Wallace (WR, Miami): The Dolphins Offensive Coordinator last season, Mike Sherman, did a horrible job of getting Wallace involved in the offense. That is one reason Sherman was replaced by Chip Kelly protégé, Bill Lazor. This season, instead of just being a deep threat, they are going to use Wallace as the Eagles used DeSean Jackson last season, when Jackson had a career year. So far in camp, Wallace is moving all around the formation and lining up in different spots, with the goal getting him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and letting him create. Wallace is bigger than Jackson and is even a hair faster, so there is real potential he explodes in this offense.
Lamar Miller (RB, Miami): Even if Miller gets overtaken by Knowshon Moreno for lead duties, this offense should be up-tempo with a ton of runs under OC Lazor, as the Eagles ran the 4th most run plays last season. At worst he could certainly be a reliable bye week replacement and if Miller emerges as Miami’s lead guy, there is a ton of upside.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, Denver): Sanders now plays with Peyton Manning. Let that sink in… And if that wasn’t enough, Wes Welker is a concussion away from retirement, and that’s if he even recovers from his latest whack to the head. Forget a 747, Sanders just boarded a Concord Jet.
Golden Tate (WR, Seattle): Gates goes from one of the leagues most run heavy offenses in Seattle, to a high volume, up-tempo pass happy offense in Detroit. With Calvin Johnson lining up on the other side, Tate is ready to truly shine.
Rueben Randle/Odell Beckham Jr/Victor Cruz/Eli Manning (New York Giants): In theory, the hiring of new Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who spent the past eight seasons with the Green Bay Packers, should be a boon to the entire Giants’ offensive skill position players. Unfortunately, Manning has not looked good and there have been reports that he has even looked disinterested at practice. While Manning seems to think the Giants will click eventually, Head Coach Tom Coughlin, reportedly appears much more worried. They have two weeks to get things together, if so, this offense could really pay dividends, but until they get things going, this is one to watch.
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