Expert DRAFTing Week 13

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DRAFT offers weekly fantasy contests with 5-man rosters (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE) and 0.5-point PPR scoring (the same as FanDuel).  Instead of using a salary cap like other daily fantasy sites, teams are built through live snake drafts with 30-seconds per pick. The most common contest sizes are Head-to-Head, 3-Team, 6-Team, and 10-Team. 

First, we will dive into the player rankings and draft strategy for each of the four Draft sizes. If you are interested in why the players are ranked where they are in the overall rankings, make sure to check out the in-depth breakdowns of the top options in the positional rankings. 

Please feel free to contact me (email or twitter) with any questions or if you are just looking for some extra advice for this week’s drafts. Constructive feedback on the article format and content is always appreciated.

Theme of the Week: Elite Players in Tough Matchups The toughest decisions of Week 13 are how to value some of the elite players who face tough defensive matchups. Do we keep the quarterbacks and wide receivers who have dominated this season at the very top of the Draft board despite facing excellent pass defenses?

The top three fantasy quarterbacks of 2017 have been Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Carson Wentz. Wilson faces a ferocious Eagles pass defense that has more interceptions this season than touchdowns allowed. Philadelphia is allowing just 15.1 points per game to opposing quarterbacks and has a defensive line that is likely to give the Seattle offense trouble. Brady faces a Buffalo defense which also has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed (just 10 passing touchdowns all season) and is giving up only 14.7 points per game. Wentz is on the road against a tough Seattle defense, which has allowed only 14.4 points per game. There are also reasons to like each of the three top quarterbacks, especially if you are one who feels the Eagles-Seahawks game is likely to develop into a shootout. Deciding how to treat these quarterbacks will be key to success this week.

The difficult decisions continue at the top of the wide receiver board. Antonio Brown faces a Cincinnati Bengals defense that allows the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Cincinnati also has a great track record against Brown, holding him to just 12.1 points per game in 14 career matchups. Julio Jones is coming off of an amazing Week 12 performance but has to face Minnesota’s 8th ranked DVOA pass defense and top shadow cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Before giving up a couple plays to Marvin Jones last week, Rhodes had gone 14 weeks without allowing a touchdown and has been one of the league’s top coverage corners. While the recommendation is still to take these two receivers as the first players off the board at the position, neither has such a strong projection in these matchups to make them a priority over other positions. Especially in larger draft sizes (6-Team and 10-Team), it makes sense to target the top running backs ahead of any of the wide receivers or quarterbacks.

Head-to-Head Draft Rankings and Strategy

1. LeVeon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. Tom Brady
4. Antonio Brown
5. Julio Jones
6. Alvin Kamara
7. Leonard Fournette
8. Keenan Allen
9. DeAndre Hopkins
10. Carson Wentz

The 1st round of Head-to-Head Drafts is as clearcut as it has been perhaps all season. LeVeon Bell and Todd Gurley project well ahead of the next tier of backs and are slam-dunk options with the first two picks in all Draft sizes. Bell is the top choice at 1.01 in all formats over Gurley. Not only has Bell seen a significantly heavier workload (coming off of yet another 30+ touch game on Sunday night), but his matchup is better. The Cincinnati Bengals rank middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and Bell is an especially tough matchup for the Bengals. No defense has been targeted in the passing game by running backs more than Cincinnati (94 targets) this season. Bell has seen 12.5 targets per game over the past two weeks and should be peppered with targets again. Gurley has a difficult matchup against Arizona and has seen his touches cut back in recent weeks. Still, he has been as consistent a fantasy scorer as any back in the league. Gurley has at least 13 points in every game except one this season.

As mentioned in the introduction, both Antonio Brown and Julio Jones have extremely difficult matchups. While the matchup concerns aren’t quite enough to drop Brown and Jones from the top of the receiver rankings, the concerns are more than enough to drag them back toward the pack at wide receiver. There is very little separation this week at the top of the rankings. Due to none of the wide receivers sticking out as a slam dunk play and some real parity amongst the second-tier at running back, Tom Brady is very much in play as high as 2.01 despite’s mediocre matchup. The Buffalo Bills defense has been fairly stout against the pass while bleeding yardage and touchdowns on the ground. There is a real concern that New England could score a couple rushing touchdowns and Brady throws for just one touchdown. However, with the other top quarterbacks each facing difficult matchups, Brady is the safest play at the position. 

Carson Wentz leapfrogs Russell Wilson in the Friday update. Upon further examination, he has some favorable passing-game matchups to exploit against the beat up Seattle secondary and Las Vegas is correct in pegging the Eagles as 5.5-point favorites in Seattle. With no real hope of running the ball against the Eagles, Seattle’s offensive line is going to have a tough time blocking an immensely talented Eagles defensive line pinning their ears back to get after Wilson.

3-Team Draft Rankings and Strategy

1. LeVeon Bell

2. Todd Gurley

3. Alvin Kamara

4. Melvin Gordon

5. Leonard Fournette

6. Tom Brady

7. Antonio Brown

8. Julio Jones

9. Keenan Allen

10. DeAndre Hopkins

11. Mike Evans

12. Carson Wentz

13. Russell Wilson

14. Adam Thielen

15. Carlos Hyde

While it may go against conventional wisdom somewhat, my primary goal in a 3-Team Draft this week is to make sure I am able to Draft two of the top-5 running backs. The top two backs were discussed in some depth above. Alvin Kamara has been on fire this season and his heavy usage out of the backfield gives him a surprisingly solid floor. Leonard Fournette has been mired in a cold streak but the Jaguars are massive 9.5-point home favorites against Indianapolis and know they need to get the running game back on track. Melvin Gordon also belongs in the top tier of backs this week. He has seen a consistent workload with at least 22 opportunities in each of the past three weeks. He also has a sneaky good matchup at home against a fading Cleveland run defense, which has allowed the 6th most normalized fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past five weeks. 

A big reason for making it a priority to lock up a pair of top backs is because it is easy to poke a hole in the case for each of the backs outside the top-5. Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, and Jordan Howard each have solid projections this week but also come with more questions than the top backs. In a week where the top of the board is packed closely together at other positions, the slightly lower projections for this tier of backs is more significant than it normally would be in terms of draft strategy. 

As in Head-to-Head, there is very little separation at the wide receiver/tight end position. In fact, it is easy to make a case for Mike Evans or DeAndre Hopkins as the top option at the position this week. From 1-to-6, the balance of risk versus reward is similar for all of the top options. 

6-Team Draft Rankings and Strategy

1. LeVeon Bell

2. Todd Gurley

3. Alvin Kamara

4. Melvin Gordon

5. Leonard Fournette

6. Antonio Brown

7. Julio Jones

8. Keenan Allen

9. DeAndre Hopkins

10. Mike Evans

11. Tom Brady

12. Carlos Hyde

13. Jordan Howard

14. Mark Ingram

15. LeSean McCoy

16. Adam Thielen

17. Rob Gronkowski

18. A.J. Green

19. Carson Wentz

20. Russell Wilson

21. Zach Ertz

22. Brandin Cooks

23. Michael Thomas

24. Kareem Hunt

25. Christian McCaffrey

26. Cam Newton

27. Philip Rivers

28. Devin Funchess

29. Jared Goff

30. Joe Mixon

While there aren’t massive tier breaks anywhere to be found this week, it does appear we have a couple small tier breaks. As discussed above in the 3-Team section, we see a little gap between the top-5 at running back and the next tier and then another gap between RB9 and RB10. 

Positionally, the smallest gap in projected points from the top option to lowest-rated option is at quarterback. There is very little separation from Tom Brady at the top of the rankings to Jared Goff at QB6. It is worth paying a slight premium in terms of draft capital to land Brady due to his upside, but in general it makes sense to break ties in favor of the position players versus quarterbacks if you are wavering while on the clock.

10-Team Draft Rankings and Strategy

1. LeVeon Bell

2. Todd Gurley

3. Alvin Kamara

4. Melvin Gordon

5. Leonard Fournette

6. Carlos Hyde

7. Jordan Howard

8. Mark Ingram

9. Antonio Brown

10. LeSean McCoy

11. Julio Jones

12. Keenan Allen

13. DeAndre Hopkins

14. Mike Evans

15. Kareem Hunt

16. Christian McCaffrey

17. Tom Brady

18. Adam Thielen

19. Rob Gronkowski

20. A.J. Green

21. Carson Wentz

22. Russell Wilson

23. Joe Mixon

24. Zach Ertz

25. Brandin Cooks

26. Michael Thomas

27. Cam Newton

28. Philip Rivers

29. Alex Collins

30. Dion Lewis

31. Rex Burkhead

32. Kenyan Drake

33. Adrian Peterson

34. Marshawn Lynch

35. Jared Goff

36. Ben Roethlisberger

37. Drew Brees

38. Devin Funchess

39. Davante Adams

40. Travis Kelce

41. Alshon Jeffery

42. Doug Baldwin

43. Robby Anderson

44. Tyreek Hill

45. Larry Fitzgerald

46. Jarvis Landry

47. Jamaal Williams

48. Jerick McKinnon

49. Marcus Mariota

50. Case Keenum

In 10-Team Drafts there is always a major premium placed upon the top running backs and that is especially true in Week 13. Ideally, you are able to nab your RB2 before it gets to the point of choosing which Patriots back to roll the dice with or having to roster someone in a brutal matchup, like Kenyan Drake against the Broncos or Adrian Peterson against the Rams. 

While there may not be a lot of separation at the top of the wide receiver/tight end board, the top-10 at the position all have strong projections and are worth targeting aggressively once the top running backs are off the board. While there is solid depth at the position, it doesn’t go 20 deep. Thus, if you land a pick in the bottom-half of the first round, you should try to fill both of your receiver positions by the end of round 4. 

Quarterback Rankings

1. Tom Brady On one hand, this is a sneaky-good matchup for Brady. Buffalo ranks in the bottom-5 in pass rush pressure and plays a zone defense. With time in the pocket, Brady has proven extremely adept at carving up zone coverage. There is little reason to believe the Bills will succeed at consistently stopping the Patriots offense. However, there is a reason that the Bill have been stingy against the pass (14.7 PPG) from a fantasy perspective. Buffalo is one of only five teams allowing fewer passing touchdowns (10) than interceptions (12). The Bills don’t give up a lot of big plays and once the zone condenses in the red zone, teams simply find it easier to pound it into the end zone on the ground. While Brady should rack up the yardage and certainly could throw for 3 touchdowns, it also shouldn’t be a surprise if the Patriots pass their way down the field and let Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis finish off drives on the ground in the red zone.
2. Carson Wentz Over the past couple days since the early-week primer, Wentz is one of the players who I have grown more confident in. It is certainly concerning that Seattle allows just 14.4 PPG to opposing quarterbacks and has one of the league’s biggest home-field advantages. However, it is also worth noting that this Seahawks defense is nowhere near full strength, with both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor on injured reserve. Seattle has slipped to 8th in defensive DVOA. Wentz and the Eagles have some favorable matchups (especially at tight end) that they should be able to exploit. The Vegas line installing the Eagles as 5.5-point road favorites has raised eyebrows and many will view it with heavy skepticism. However, these are two teams going in opposite directions and I agree side with Las Vegas in thinking Wentz is in a better position to lead his team to victory and have a big fantasy day in the process.
3. Russell Wilson Wilson also faces one of the five teams that has notched more interceptions (16) than passing touchdowns allowed (14). Allowing only 15.1 PPG to opposing QBs.
4. Cam Newton The Saints rank 13th best against quarterbacks this season and are no longer a defense we can pick on. However, New Orleans is again expected to be without star rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore and starter Ken Crawley is likely to be less than 100% playing through an oblique injury. There is certainly an opportunity for Newton to put up a big game but he has his own injury concerns to worry about. Newton injured his thumb and really struggled with accuracy last week playing through the injury. However, he has reportedly looked much better in practices this week. 
5. Philip Rivers There is very little to indicate the Browns are capable of stopping Rivers and the Chargers passing offense. Cleveland allows the 9th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (18.7 PPG) and a healthy 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. The bigger question is how much Rivers will need to pass on Sunday. The Chargers defense has been dominant for the past month and should have a field day against the Browns. Cleveland has also been getting gashed on the ground. The game script could dictate a lot of Melvin Gordon instead of Rivers flinging it all over the field. 
6. Jared Goff Arizona has quietly allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (19.9 per game). The passing game matchups don’t look particularly appealing on paper for the Rams but Sean McVay has been able to scheme guys open with regularity this season. 
7. Ben Roethlisberger The Bengals only allow 15.8 PPG to opposing quarterbacks but have struggled (2-10 record) in primetime. Meanwhile, the Steelers, and in particular the passing offense, have shined in night games in recent years. We’ve seen huge games from Roethlisberger in recent primetime matchups against Tennessee and Green Bay and it shouldn’t be a surprise if we see another productive game from Roethlisberger on Monday night.
8. Drew Brees
9. Marcus Mariota

10. Case Keenum

Running Back Rankings

1. LeVeon Bell Bell’s workload is insane. He has 25+ touches in 7-of-8 games and has 30+ touches in 5-of-8. There is nobody even close to Bell in terms of projected volume. Pittsburgh is a road favorite against Cincinnati and has actually been more dominant on the road against the Bengals than at home. This is an above-average matchup for Bell. No defense has been targeted in the passing game by running backs more than the Bengals (94 targets) this season. The Bengals only glaring defensive weakness is the coverage ability of the team’s linebackers and with top coverage backer Nick Vigil likely to be out, coverage will be even more of an issue this week. Bell is a slam-dunk pick at 1.01 in all formats. 
2. Todd Gurley Most are projecting Gurley to see 22-25 touches this week. Both Maurile Tremblay and David Dodds have Gurley projected for 24 touches. While the projection makes sense in the bigger pictures, it is also worth noting that over the last four games Gurley has seen touch totals of 18, 17, 18, and 21 (18.5 per game). Thus, Sigmund Bloom’s projection of just 19 touches makes sense in light of recent usage. While we don’t want to get too caught up in the minutiae of calculating projections, in this case it is important for each drafter to decide how confident they are in Gurley seeing a heavy workload. If Bloom is right about Gurley seeing fewer than 20 touches for the fourth time in five weeks, then Gurley probably should rank as RB4 or RB5 in a mediocre matchup against Arizona. If Dodds and Tremblay’s 24-touch projection is accurate, then Gurley is the clearcut RB2. 
3. Alvin Kamara Kamara only touched the ball 11 times last week but still somehow put up 33.8 Draft points. He continues to present a weekly conundrum for drafters. How do you pick a guy who is likely to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-16 touches over other running backs who project for nearly twice as many opportunities? It seems unlikely Kamara will be able to continue putting up 7.1 yards per carry, 10.0 yards per catch and scoring one touchdown per 14.7 touches. However, it is also really hard to fade a player who has been as hot as Kamara and who has looked so good doing it. It is extremely uncomfortable to do so, but Kamara is worth rolling the dice on at 1.03. 
4. Melvin Gordon The Chargers are massive 13.5-point home favorites, so the most likely game script sets up extremely well for Gordon to see heavy usage. He has seen 24, 22 and 24 total opportunities (carries plus targets) in the last three weeks and should see at least 20 touches in Week 13. The Browns 2nd-ranked (DVOA) run defense is misleading in judging the favorability of this Week 13 matchup. Cleveland has lost both Jamie Collins and Emmanuel Ogbah to season-ending injuries in recent weeks. Over the last five games, the Browns have allowed the 6th-most normalized fantasy points to opposing running backs and have been smashed the last two weeks by Leonard Fournette (111 rushing yards) and Joe Mixon (114 rushing yards). 
5. Leonard Fournette Fournette is a key guy to make a decision on this week. He could prove to be a Draft steal that will win you the week or he could continue to struggle. Fournette’s projection on Draft is way lower than you will find anywhere else, which means his name is buried deep down the default list of running backs and causing him to last longer in drafts than he should. If he slides like he often does, it is an easy decision to stop his freefall. However, just how aggressive you are in pursuing Fournette is a major decision and the information is somewhat contradictory. On the negative side, Fournette has clearly been less effective since returning from his ankle injury and it appears as though the issue will not go away this season. It is something he will just have to play through. In addition, the Jaguars offensive line is beat up, which may also be contributing to the fact that Fournette has only averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in three games this season. On the positive side, the matchup is ideal. The Jaguars are 9.5-point favorites in a game the Jacksonville defense should dominate. Game script should be perfect for Fournette to see 25+ carries and he could also be the beneficiary of some short fields due to the Jaguars defense. Fournette missed the previous matchup against Indianapolis and instead, T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory combined for 26 carries for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns. 
6. Carlos Hyde While Jordan Howard will get more fantasy attention and hype this week, Hyde has similar upside with a higher floor. Unlike Howard, Hyde is game script independent due to his usage as a pass catcher. Hyde has seen a whopping 73 targets through 11 weeks and is on pace for well over 100 on the season. Chicago’s run defense is above-average (12th in DVOA), so it’s hard to get too excited about Hyde and Howard probably does have a higher ceiling. Still, the tie-breaker between the two is pass-game usage, where Hyde has a massive advantage.
7. Jordan Howard Howard is an intriguing option this week. No team in the NFL has faced more running back rush attempts than San Francisco and as long as the Bears defense can hold Jimmy Garoppolo in check, the game script should be favorable for Howard to get at least 20 carries (with a realistic chance of seeing nearly 30). In his career, Howard has averaged 125.5 rushing yards, 1.0 touchdowns and 17.5 receiving yards per game in Bears wins. One of those wins came last season against these same San Francisco 49ers last season, when Howard rushed for 117 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chicago would certainly love to pound away with Howard instead of putting the game into the hands of their rookie quarterback and Week 13 may provide the perfect game script to do so at home against the 1-10 49ers. 
8. Mark Ingram Ingram is a forgotten man in Week 13 after he scored just 4.6 fantasy points last week compared to the 33.4 scored by his backfield mate, Alvin Kamara. However, it is worth noting that Ingram against out-touched Kamara (13-to-11). While Ingram hasn’t had the ridiculous per touch efficiency of Kamara, the projection for these two backs in Week 13 is much closer than the default projections on Draft show. It shouldn’t be a surprise at all if Ingram actually has the bigger game. 
9. LeSean McCoy Some of the numbers look favorable for McCoy. The Patriots rank 29th in run defense DVOA and are dead last in yards per carry against. McCoy has also been much better at home. On the other hand, the Patriots have not allowed an opponent to top 17 points in seven consecutive games. The defense is rounding into form and isn’t likely to allow many scoring opportunities. The Patriots are also 9-point road favorites, so the game script could work against McCoy. 
10. Kareem Hunt It is hard to get excited about Hunt due to his miserable performances in recent weeks and extreme lack of opportunities in the red zone. However, he is still the clear lead back on a team with a solid implied team total of 23.3 points. It’s not exciting, but Hunt is probably the best available late in 6-Team drafts. 
11. Christian McCaffrey McCaffrey was open all game last week, but Cam Newton had trouble hitting him. With Newton’s thumb injury making progress, expect the duo to get back on the same page and for McCaffrey to have a strong showing in a potential shootout against the Saints. 
12. Joe Mixon The Steelers allow just 19.4 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. However, Mixon has dominated the Bengals backfield touches since Jeremy Hill landed on injured reserve. If the Bengals manage even an average performance against the Steelers defense, Mixon has a realistic shot at scoring 17+ points. 
13. Alex Collins Collins has consistently seen 15+ carries in recent weeks and has a very solid matchup against a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs (second-most in the league). 
14. Dion Lewis The Bills have given up more rushing touchdowns (13) to opposing running backs than any team in the league. With the Patriots likely to move the ball with ease, the offense should have plenty of red zone opportunities. The problem is that it is tough to predict whether Lewis or Burkhead is most likely to get the goal line work. Both backs are strongly in play for 10-Team drafts as medium-risk, high-reward options in the mid-rounds. 
15. Rex Burkhead
16. Kenyan Drake Drake has a good chance to see 20 touches on Sunday, which makes him a worthwhile option in 10-Team Drafts. The issue is that Denver has been extremely stingy against opposing running backs and the Miami offense is a mess. It’s hard to get too excited about rostering any Dolphins this week given their implied team total of just 18 points. 
17. Adrian Peterson
18. Marshawn Lynch
19. Jamaal Williams
20. Jerick McKinnon

Wide Receiver and Tight End Rankings

1. Antonio Brown Once there is a big enough sample size (10+ games), prior history against an opponent becomes a fairly strong predictive tool. This is especially true when both the offensive and defensive schemes have remained relatively unchanged. For Brown’s Week 13 prospects, this is certainly a negative indicator. For his career, he has averaged 5.1 receptions, 74.1 yards, and 0.36 touchdowns (12.1 fantasy points) per game against Cincinnati. The Bengals also allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers overall. While there is nothing in this matchup that indicates Brown is likely to explode for a massive fantasy performance, a player of his ability is always capable of having a big game. Brown also has a solid floor. While the matchup scares me, it isn’t quite enough to knock Brown down from his weekly spot atop the wide receiver/tight end rankings. However, it is enough to knock Brown down compared to the other positions. If it is close between Brown and a running back or quarterback, I am leaning toward the other position and am perfectly content with waiting for one of the lower-ranked options with a similar projection. 
2. Julio Jones Jones was having a solid but unspectacular 2017 season before exploding for 12 catches, 253 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 12. Xavier Rhodes had gone 14 straight games without allowing a receiving touchdown before Marvin Jones got him last week on Thanksgiving. It is always difficult to predict when Julio Jones will go off for a big fantasy game. He is going to be the most talented player on the field, so even top cornerbacks can’t lock him down if they are consistently tasked with defending him 1-on-1. It often comes down to how many players the opposing defense is willing to use to defend against him and that can be difficult to predict. Mike Zimmer generally is willing to devote extra resources to stopping an opposing team’s top weapon. His Minnesota defenses have held Jones 5-56-0 and 6-82-0 in two previous meetings. While I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if Jones has a big game, I am not expecting it. As with Brown, it is really tough to bump players like Keenan Allen and Mike Evans above him in the rankings. However, in smaller drafts, I am content to wait and take whoever is remaining in the final rounds at the position instead of making Jones a priority like he is most weeks.
3. Keenan Allen Over the past two weeks, Allen has 23 catches for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns. While the Browns allow the 9th-fewest points to opposing wide receivers (despite ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA), Allen has a solid matchup in the slot against Briean Boddy-Calhoun. The Browns also drop their safeties relatively deep, which leaves the middle of the field wide open. Allen and Hunter Henry are the two Chargers who most regularly attack the middle and one or both of the two could have a big week. The only real concern for Allen is game script. If the Chargers get the running game going and the defense dominates the Browns hapless offense, there may be little need to throw the ball in the second half. 
4. DeAndre Hopkins While Tom Savage is awful, Hopkins has managed to remain a top fantasy option due to his talent and the sheer volume of targets he sees. Hopkins has a whopping 125 targets already this season and also leads the NFL with 9 touchdowns. The matchup is fantastic as well. The Tennessee Titans allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have allowed some big games to top WR1s in recent weeks (20.0 points to A.J Green and 37.4 to Antonio Brown). 
5. Mike Evans Jameis Winston is back and should immediately boost the fantasy prospects of his favorite target. It doesn’t hurt that Evans has perhaps his best matchup as the year as well. The Packers are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (31.3 PPG). Part of the reason Evans is so attractive this week is because the Tampa Bay versus Green Bay matchup has sneaky shootout potential. With Doug Martin out, the Buccaneers should throw the ball a lot and should find success against an awful Green Bay secondary that is playing through some injuries (Kevin King has struggled with a shoulder injury). Expect Evans to get back on track in Week 13. Assuming Winston’s throwing shoulder is okay, Evans is clearly one of the top plays on the slate. 
6. Adam ThielenThielen may have the highest floor of anyone at the position. He has at least 5 receptions in every single game and has 8-or-more targets in 10-of-11 games. Thielen has a great matchup in Week 13. Slot cornerback Brian Poole has been a major liability all season and could be less than 100% on Sunday. Case Keenum and the Vikings passing offense have been on fire over the past month and it makes sense to continue to ride the hot hand. 
7. Rob Gronkowski Bills only allow 9.0 PPG to opposing TEs. seven or more targets in five of his last six games. For what it’s worth, Gronk grew up in Buffalo and has seven touchdowns in six games at the Ralph (he has scored at least once in five of six games he has played there). He has also topped 100 yards in four of six games at Buffalo, with his worst yardage game in Buffalo yielding a 4-54-2 line in his rookie season, and with his “worst” DFS line going 7-94-0.
8. A.J. Green On paper, this is a tough matchup. The Steelers allow the 5th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. However, recent results suggest otherwise. The Steelers have given up the 2nd-most passing yards in the league over the past four weeks and have struggled to replace starting cornerback Joe Haden. Pittsburgh has allowed big games to Davante Adams (5-82-1), Rishard Matthews (5-113-1), Chester Rogers (6-104-1) and Marvin Jones (6-128-0) in their last four outings.
9. Zach Ertz The Seahawks have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season and are now playing without Kam Chancellor. Ertz has been fantastic when healthy this season. He has at least 80 receiving yards in 5-of-10 games and already has scored 7 touchdowns. The Eagles are 6-point road favorites with a surprisingly solid implied team total of 26.8 points. Seattle is especially stout against the run, so most of Philadelphia’s offensive production should come through the air, where Ertz is the top target. Seattle allows the 7th-most targets to opposing tight ends. Bradley McDougald, Kam Chancellor’s replacement, has been getting torched.
10. Brandin Cooks
11. Michael Thomas
12. Devin Funchess
13. Davante Adams Tampa Bay is allowing the most points to opposing wide receivers (36.0 per game). The Buccaneers pass rush is toothless, ranking dead last in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. The secondary is also easily beaten and Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA. The Buccaneers have been torched by opposing WR1s, allowing over 90 yards per game. It sets up great for Adams, who has clearly emerged as the top target in the Green Bay offense. He has averaged 9.3 targets per game since Brett Hundley since Week 5. 
14. Travis Kelce
15. Alshon Jeffery
16. Doug Baldwin
17. Robby Anderson
18. Tyreek Hill
19. Larry Fitzgerald
20. Jarvis Landry