Dynasty Roster Check
As free agency is fast approaching, this is the time of year the best dynasty owners are eying the NFL rosters in hopes of accurately predicting which reserves will step into the limelight, which players changing teams will succeed, which will fail, and lastly, where the difference-making rookies will land. The NFL is a delicate ecosystem this time of year … and it is a great time to be a fan of the NFL.
Below we try to anticipate the comings and goings for each NFC team:
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys offense will once again depend on quarterback Tony Romo. He puts up decent fantasy statistics but the play-calling from coach Jason Garrett does not get the ball into the play-makers hands often enough. Kyle Orton returns to hold the clipboard on the Dallas sideline. One player who could see his dynasty value jump is tailback DeMarco Murray. Murray has put up fantasy points when healthy and could have a big 2014 campaign. Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle will play behind Murray. As in years gone by, it would not be a shocker if General Manager Jerry Jones sought out a “name” player for either running back or wide receiver. If a ball carrier, Ahmad Bradshaw, Maurice Jones-Drew, or even former Arkansas Razorback (Jones' favorite) Darren McFadden may be future Cowboys. At the receiver position, Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams are expected to start as Miles Austin is likely to be released this offseason. Can Garrett and company consistently get Bryant the ball, game in and game out? This is a huge question for fantasy owners of Romo and Bryant. Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley will battle for the WR3 job unless a free agent is signed or high draft pick used on the position. Jones likes the “big name” players so signing Kenny Britt or Santonio Holmes would not be surprising. A better fit might be Lance Moore, an efficient slot receiver. Jason Witten returns at tight end with second-year pro Gavin Escobar seeing time in two-tight end formations. Overall, this offense – in terms of fantasy success – will rely on the right arm of Romo … and the ability of the coaching staff to get Bryant involved early in every contest.
New York Giants
The Giants are looking to rebound after a very disappointing 2013. The entire offense hit bottom with a collective “thud.” Quarterback Eli Manning hopes to turn things around. His turnovers were embarrassing a year ago. Ryan Nassib will look to improve in year two. David Wilson hopes to come back to full strength after a nasty neck injury. Wilson struggled with fumbles and effectiveness before the injury so there is no assurance he will assume the starting job if 100% healthy. Andre Brown is now a free agent and could be brought back to New York. This is a huge need for coach Coughlin's conservative offense. He likes to run the ball often. The running back position is one in which fantasy owners should expect talent added, possibly by multiple players. Hakeem Nicks is a free agent, and will not be back. This leaves Victor Cruz as the leader of the receiving corps. Cruz is coming off a down season, only made worse by Manning's poor play. Rueben Randle is the defacto starter in Nicks' spot. He is a player whose value is climbing. There is a chance Randle's value climbs too high for fantasy owners … even though he is talented. Jerrel Jernigan played well to end the season and should start in the slot receiver role. Together, these three receivers should be serviceable for the Giants. However, expect a rookie to be added for depth and development purposes. At tight end, Adrien Robinson is all that is left after Brandon Myers became a free agent this offseason. This is a huge need for the offense. In total, the New York offense is aging and lacks the ability to sustain drives and break games open with big plays; not a good combination.
Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Foles gets a full offseason to work with Chip Kelly and the rest of the coaching staff. While he enjoyed a solid season last year, there is plenty of room for improvement. It is very likely that Foles actually improves in year two as a starter. Please remember that Michael Vick received most of the starting reps last offseason. Now, it is Foles' turn. Matt Barkley will battle a newcomer for the QB2 spot. Vick will sign elsewhere to be a starter. The page has been turned on his Eagles tenure. LeSean McCoy will look to duplicate his very good 2014 year, and has a good chance to do so if he can avoid injuries. Kelly's offense is very friendly to a player of McCoy's skill set and talent. Chris Polk and Bryce Brown each have a unique set of abilities and will vie for the RB2 job. It would not be a surprise to see Kelly add a change of pace back through the draft. DeSean Jackson is coming off a career year and will actually get help as both Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper are now under contract for the coming season. Each was signed to a team-friendly deal. Arrelious Benn, Damaris Johnson, and Jeff Maehl will look to get on the field. Jason Avant is now looking for employment outside of Philadelphia. One or two mid-to-late round picks on the position would be a shrewd move as Maclin only signed a one-year deal and Jackson is already whining about his contract. The trio of Brent Celek, Zach Ertz, and James Casey provide a versatile dimension for Kelly to utilize. This should be an exciting offense for fantasy owners. Expect Jackson's numbers to decrease with viable threats on the field. Add in McCoy's running ability, and Philadelphia could be a goldmine for dynasty owners.
Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin III III is hoping to rebound from an abysmal sophomore season. He should be fully healed in time all offseason activities. The change in coaching staffs from the Shanahans to Jay Gruden can only help Griffin. Gruden was instrumental in the development of Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. Much to the dismay of dynasty owners, Kirk Cousins will walk the sidelines in Washington once again. Cousins has not shown enough talent for another team to offer a high draft pick in exchange, something needed for him to be traded. The shift in offensive philosophies should also impact the running game. Alfred Morris was a perfect fit for the former regime's zone blocking scheme. The jury is out under Gruden. Roy Helu, Evan Royster, and Chris Thompson will play behind Morris. Washington could add a speedy player to the mix via the draft. Pierre Garcon returns to anchor the receiving corps. He is joined by Aldrick Robinson and Leonard Hankerson, two under-performing players throughout their respective young careers. Gruden and the Bengals used the draft to add talent and depth at the receiver position and will look to do so in the Nation's Capital. With Fred Davis a free agent AND indefinitely suspended, the door is wide open for Jordan Reed to pick up where he left off last season. Concussions were the only negative for Reed during his rookie season and hopefully those are a thing of the past. It will be interesting to see how Gruden puts his stamp on this offense. Griffin is the catalyst and could be a fantasy factor under the direction of his new coach.
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler looks to build on a very good 2013, his first with coach Marc Trestman. The development of Alshon Jeffrey will only help. Backup Josh McCown is a free agent and should sign with another team to compete for the starting role. Matt Forte is back after a very good year. Trestman really helped Forte get his touches in a meaningful way. Michael Bush and Michael Ford will spell Forte. Bush may not be the same player he was pre-injury. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey will put up big numbers again this season. Earl Bennett and youngster Marquess Wilson could see time as the WR3 if an upgrade is not sought after in the draft. Bennett carries a higher dollar contract than his play on the field dictates so it would not be surprising to see him released or have to slice his salary. This is a very good pass offense for fantasy owners. Having the athletic Martellus Bennett occupy the tight end position only helps.
Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford was not at his best in 2013. Many had high hopes after the big numbers (on massive pass attempt totals) the year before. However, Stafford sees his play suffer when forced to throw the ball almost every down. Shaun Hill is a free agent and could look to compete for a starting gig on another team. Hill is more than a capable backup and the position will need to be addressed given Stafford's injury history his first two years in the NFL. Reggie Bush, Joique Bell, and Mikel Leshoure will lead the Lions running game. Keep an eye on Bell as he is a Restricted Free Agent and another team may make an offer. The Bush/Bell combination is a very good one, with each player a strong complement for the other. Leshoure is little more than a deep stash in case something happens to one of the other two. Calvin Johnson is a beast. Many times, we fail to appreciate his greatness since it looks so natural and Johnson frequently makes great plays. Nate Burleson was released in the offseason, leaving just Kris Durham and Ryan Broyles at the position. There are rumors that Detroit will use a high draft pick on the position. A top player at the position could do wonders for Stafford and Johnson in terms of opening up the defense. Brandon Pettigrew is a free agent. There is talk that the Lions will re-sign him to a team-friendly deal. If not, Joseph Fauria is waiting in the wings to score touchdowns and do a little dance. Once again, this offense will put up big numbers. If a good receiver is added, it could open things up for the running game. Bush is a sleeper in PPR leagues, especially if the opposing defenses are focused on the passing attack.
Green Bay Packers
After an injury-plagued 2013 campaign, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense will seek to regain the production of years gone by. The one bright spot was the strong play of Eddie Lacy. Lacy was exceptional as a rookie and his presence will be beneficial for the offense as a whole. Since James Starks is a free agent, DuJuan Harris and Jonathan Franklin will play behind Lacy. Each was on injured reserve a year ago. Giving Rodgers a viable running game may not be fair to opposing defenses. Back are Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Jarrett Boykin to start at the receiver positions. Cobb missed much of last year and looks to be healthy for training camp. James Jones is not expected to be back. He will follow the money to another organization. Brandon Bostick and Jake Stoneburner are all that is left at tight end with Jermichael Finley and Andrew Quarless unrestricted free agents. Finley is still not cleared to practice after his severe neck injury. This will be a very good fantasy offense once again. We have learned in the past that even Boykin or Harris could be a strong dynasty stash given the other talent on this offense.
Minnesota Vikings
Christian Ponder was the only quarterback under contract for Minnesota. Then, Matt Cassel was given a two-year deal. It was backup caliber money. Now, Josh Freeman is the lone passer of the group seeking other opportunities. Cassel played decently when starting and could be a QB2 for fantasy owners, depending on what the team does in the draft. Norv Turner is now on the Vikings staff and will only help the situation. Adrian Peterson is still going strong, yet his dynasty value is decreasing rapidly as owners fear him losing a step soon. Toby Gerhart is a free agent so it leaves Matt Asiata as the only other ball carrier on the roster. The Vikings should select a speedy back in the draft. Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson will provide Minnesota with viable options in the passing game. Jennings played well a year ago when Cassel was under center and Patterson really came on late in the year. Jarius Wright could see time in the slot. With the addition of Turner, Kyle Rudolph should see his numbers increase. Overall, this is an offense that will depend greatly on the play at the quarterback position. We doubt there will be much upgrade at the position, and not enough to warrant the Average Draft Position (ADP) of skill position players.
Atlanta Falcons
Another quarterback coming off a disappointing season is Matt Ryan. His top two receivers were injured last year and Ryan could not make up the difference. Expectations will be high with everyone back to full strength. Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers are back to solidify the running game. Jackson ran well last year and could be great value for dynasty owners needing a short-term fix at the position. Julio Jones is now healthy. Interestingly, his dynasty ADP dropped noticeably after the missed season due to injury. Roddy White saw his numbers go sky high toward the end of the season. He has not lost a step and could be a strong value play for owners. Harry Douglas put up big numbers with the injuries to Jones and White. He will fall back to the slot position this year, barely warranting a roster spot. Drew Davis is a prospect to watch in training camp. There is no way the raw and unathletic Levine Toilolo will replace veteran Tony Gonzalez in the lineup. Expect an upgrade at the position. All four of these positions desperately need big improvement from the offensive line in order to put up strong fantasy production.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton is back to the lead the Panthers offense. He will need to show consistency in order to get the naysayers off his back. The overpaid and underproducing trio of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are back for 2014. None are worth much in dynasty with the lack of consistent touches. Youngster Kenjon Barner could take a giant step in his development this season. Carolina could use his speed in the running game. At the receiver position, the cupboard is bare with Steve Smith the only proven receiver under contract. Smith is aging quickly and the organization brass has been tardy restocking the position. Ted Ginn Jr and Brandon LaFell are free agents, opening the door for Tarvarres King to possibly emerge. King looked good in Broncos training camp as a rookie. Tight end Greg Olsen could lead the team in receiving once again, especially if the receiver position is not addressed in a big way. The only dynasty starter on this offense is Newton. He desperately needs better play from both the running back and wide receiver positions.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees returns to orchestrate the Sean Payton offense. He is an elite quarterback, able to put up huge seasons consecutively. Ryan Griffin is his backup. If Brees were to get injured, Griffin could be a low-end fantasy starter given the weapons on the Saints offense. Toward the end of last season, coach Payton moved toward a power running game with Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson toting the rock. Expect this trend to continue, minimizing the need for Darren Sproles. Sproles was released Friday night. A competing team playing on turf would be his best fit. Think of Sproles in the Indianapolis Colts offense. He would add a spark. Pierre Thomas could take a complementary role in the future or be sent packing, himself. So, keep that in mind for dynasty leagues. Marques Colston and Kenny Stills will start for New Orleans after the release of Lance Moore. Stills played very well as a rookie and has plenty of upside. Look for a receiver to be added in the middle rounds of the draft, if not on Day Two. Nick Toon and Joseph Morgan offer depth for the prolific offense. Jimmy Graham is the best tight end in the game right now. He is a huge mismatch for defenders. Since Graham was slapped with the Franchise Tag, it will give he and the team time to work out a new deal. Ben Watson will be back to offer depth behind Graham. This offense will put up big fantasy points again. The move to the power running game is to take advantage of the nickel and dime coverage defenses must play against the Saints.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
During his rookie season, Mike Glennon played better than many expected. However, he is still a long ways away from being the long-term starter, especially with the coaching change. A veteran should be added to the mix since only Mike Kafka is under contract to offer competition for Glennon. The running back position played well – even with all of the injuries – in 2013. Doug Martin should be back for training camp. He has the talent to be the RB1 in fantasy any given year. Mike James and Bobby Rainey will spell Martin. New head coach Lovie Smith will look to establish the running game. Each of the three backs offers a unique set of abilities. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams will offer strong targets for Glennon. Chris Owusu is a player to watch in case Williams' troubles increase. Luke Stocker and Tim Wright offer different qualities at tight end. It would not be a shock to see Smith bring in a solid veteran like Brandon Myers or Dustin Keller to upgrade the position. This will be a conservative offense, especially if Glennon is under center. The running backs look to offer value, much more so with the top two coming off injuries.
Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer surprised many with the strong 2013 season. He could duplicate the effort under coach Bruce Arians. Arians has a proven track record of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Rashard Mendenhallhas retired, which could open the door up for the talented Andre Ellington. Ellington is a big-play back and can score from anywhere on the field. Alfonso Smith and Stepfan Taylor are behind him on the depth chart. Arians was cautious about Ellington's workload last year. If this is truly how he feels, then it should be expected that the Cardinals add talent to the position this offseason. Receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are the strength of the offense, making Palmer look better than reality. Andre Roberts is expected to be gone so there will be a gaping need at the WR3 position. Maybe LaRon Byrd or Jaron Brown will step up. If a receiver is selected in the first 150 picks of the draft, it will show a lack of faith in Byrd and Brown. After much preseason hype, Rob Housler was one of the bigger fantasy disappointments last season. It is now or never time for Housler. Depth at the tight end position was added in the form of veteran John Carlson … just in case Housler struggles again. Even with the big seasons, respectively, Ellington and Floyd are undervalued. They are the future of this veteran-laden offense.
St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford is back healthy and needs a big season in order to quiet his critics, of which I am one. Bradford shows little composure in the pocket and does not throw the ball with anticipation consistently. Austin Davis is his backup now that Kellen Clemens is a free agent. Zac Stacy came out of nowhere to show well as a rookie. His powerful running style is needed to keep the pressure off of Bradford. Benny Cunningham, Daryl Richardson, and Isaiah Pead will vie for touches behind Stacy. Cunningham had the edge at the end of last season. We will find out this year whether Stacy is a legitimate fantasy RB1 threat or just one of many in the the RB2 conversation. The young group of receivers need Bradford to play well. Chris Givens, Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, and Brian Quick all are talented, yet inconsistent. The Rams need to figure out how to get the ball in Austin's hands as frequently as possible. He and Givens have the speed to make big plays. After the promising week one, Jared Cook languished through a lackluster season after joining his former coach in St. Louis. Lance Kendricks will see the field some, too. Like many of these NFL offenses, the quarterback play will decide whether or not the rest of the fantasy options have value. One thing to consider: if Bradford struggles out of the gate, the young receivers will be great “buy low” candidates with the hope of a quarterback upgrade next offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
Even with all of the contract talk, Colin Kaepernick still has yet to distinguish himself as a fantasy star. Yes, Kaepernick has shown promise. But, he is far from the elite level many fantasy owners think. If you want to see something interesting, go look at Kaepernick's numbers against the Green Bay Packers and versus the rest of the league. His productivity is much higher against the Packers. Also, consider the strong defenses in the NFC West. Frank Gore has yet to slow down. He is running hard and provides an attitude for the offense. The talented duo of Kendall Hunter and Marcus Lattimore will play behind Gore. Lattimore is coming off the devastating knee injuries at South Carolina. LaMichael James is rumored to be traded or released with the return of Lattimore. This is a deep backfield, and Kaepernick's running ability will only make this group more effective. Anquan Boldin just signed a new contract to ensure he finishes his career in San Francisco. Michael Crabtree will be back and at full health. This pair is very strong run blocking and catching the ball in tight spaces. A speed receiver is needed to keep defenses honest. Quinton Patton, Devon Wylie, and Jonathan Baldwin will battle for the third receiver spot. There is a fair chance a player will be selected higher than fans expect. The 49ers draft for depth and to fill in abilities not currently on the team. Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald will add a very athletic presence to the pass offense. Expect the running game to continue to put up solid numbers, giving Kaepernick opportunities off of play action.
Seattle Seahawks
Coming off the Super Bowl victory, Russell Wilson is on cloud nine. His dynasty owners assume a higher upside than what is realistic. Tarvaris Jackson is expected to be re-signed as his backup. Wilson does not need to throw the ball often. He has a strong defense and running attack. Marshawn Lynch is a beast and will continue to receive the lion's share of the carries. Speedy Robert Turbin and the talented youngster Christine Michael are waiting for an extended window of opportunity to shine. Lynch has played very well, not allowing either to play much. With Golden Tate and Sidney Rice free agents, Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin will lead the receiving corps. Harvin should be healed and ready to go for all offseason activities. Ricardo Lockette and Jermaine Kearse will look to develop and get on the field often. Each is talented, yet does not see enough action to prove it. The duo of Zach Miller and Luke Willson will hold down the tight end position again. The Seahawks will once again be a run-oriented offense, and throwing the ball as little as possible.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
