Thursday Showdown Week 9

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The Steelers have been –4 home favorites or better all week, even with their quarterback's status in doubt. That doesn't paint a confident picture for Mike Vrabel, Will Levis, and the visiting Titans. Levis was a four-touchdown sensation in his first start, but the betting world expects a relatively close game in favor of Kenny Pickett.

And the 37 expected total warns us not to project much upside here. Levis remains largely an unknown, while the Steelers struggle to move the ball regardless of their passer. That means tonight's Showdown will likely be won by shrewd value, not by three-touchdown eruptions.

Injury Roundup

It's been hard to draw a bead on Pickett's status. After leaving Sunday's loss – a game he was reportedly cleared to return to – he was called a true game-time decision tonight. But he's good to go, and he'll be under center – not that he's a massive upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky.

Across the field, rookie Levis will make his second start for Ryan Tannehill. The lack of star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick could make life easier for the Tennessee air attack.

Captain Consideration

• Derrick Henry
• Diontae Johnson
• DeAndre Hopkins
• George Pickens
• Will Levis

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback

Will Levis (CPT or FLEX)

The first-start phenom threw 4 touchdowns last Sunday, with 3 of them coming from 20+ yards out. Levis likely won't be quite as sharp in his second, but he's clearly willing to utilize his big arm down the field. The matchup isn't great, but it softens without Fitzpatrick roaming the back end. Levis and DeAndre Hopkins will make for an extremely popular stack, so plan accordingly.

Running Back

Derrick Henry (CPT or FLEX)
Tyjae Spears (FLEX)

The Titans may or may not have listened to offers for Henry, but either way, they'll continue to ride him relentlessly. The Steelers have slipped against the run, so the stars could be aligning for a classic 30-touch day.

And, to put it nicely, Pickett is unlikely to spin this into some high-flying affair that keeps Henry uninvolved.

Spears is a pure handcuff with limited standalone value. Season-long players may be holding on tight, but DFSers have yet to get more than 11 touches from a game of his.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins (CPT or FLEX)
Treylon Burks (FLEX)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (FLEX)

No, Hopkins didn't draw much volume in Levis' first start, but his six targets did lead the team. More importantly, three of them went for touchdowns on a 4-128 day. You're not looking for vintage Hopkins numbers here; rather, you're hoping (a) he is indeed Levis' preferred weekly look and (b) he'll score again. Finding the end zone has never been an issue for Hopkins, and he now has a quarterback who will test deep.

Burks' return to action last Sunday – his first since Week 3 – was uneventful. He saw 35 snaps but just 2 targets, both incompletions, while Hopkins ripped the cover off the Falcons secondary. Burks can make plays, and he'll almost certainly catch a handful of passes tonight. But with his five-point floor, he's nowhere near ready to Captain outside the most contrarian of lineups.

The team loves Westbrook-Ikhine far more than the fantasy world does. He typically sees about 75% of the snaps, yet has averaged a line of 2-27 over the past three years. If Levis is throwing, it will typically be to his playmakers.

Tight End

Chigoziem Okonkwo (FLEX)

Okonkwo “broke out” Sunday with 6 targets, though his 4-28 line did little for anyone. His aDOT has dropped from 7.6 as a rookie (14th among tight ends) to 6.7 (24th). So many elements work against him: the run-oriented scheme, the new quarterback fixated downfield, and the platooning with two other tight ends. With no upside to speak of, Okonkwo simply isn't a recommended play.

Under the Radar

Chris Moore (FLEX)

Moore has resurfaced as something of a deep threat in Tennessee. He's drawn 51% of the snaps since Week 2, including leaving Week 6 early. Moore boasts just 5 catches on the year, but the first 3 went for 49, 44, and 33 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett (FLEX)

Neither Steelers passer comes with much baked-in upside. Out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Pickett sits 29th in success rate, 22nd in net yardage, 28th in yards per game, and 28th in touchdowns. Until he can feel the pocket and settle his feet, he'll never be a compiler. He's a gutsy scrambler, but he hasn't been racking up yardage here in 2022, dipping from 18 yards a game to just three.

Running Back

Najee Harris (FLEX)
Jaylen Warren (FLEX)

Remember Harris' rookie season, which he opened? Yeah, those days of sky-high usage are over. These two have worked their way into an extremely even snap share. On the year, Harris has claimed just 53% of team snaps, and Warren is gaining ground fast.

That said, Warren is a dicey play for upside. More a change-of-pace back than a 1B, he hasn't seen double-digit touches since Week 4, and he's not much of a touchdown threat, either (only 2 touches from inside the 10). Warren sees his share of passing snaps, but this offense doesn't throw much to the running backs anymore.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson (CPT or FLEX)
George Pickens (CPT or FLEX)
Allen Robinson II (FLEX)

Choose your weapon: Johnson and Pickens are wildly different receivers with wildly different roles in this offense. Johnson lost four games to a hamstring injury, then drew 20 targets and produced 164 yards over his first two back. Pickens is an elite deep threat, with a sky-high 13.3 aDOT and 18.6 yards per catch.

The good news is that this offense is tightly concentrated, and those two will draw most of the targets. Of the 22 looks sent to Steelers wideouts over the past 2 weeks, 19 have gone to the pair. Johnson is the preferred play, though either could be Captain.

Robinson has hardly been in the rotation since Johnson's return. He's cheap, but not cheap enough, considering he appears to be mostly out of gas.

Tight End

Connor Heyward (FLEX)

Last week, in place of Pat Freiermuth, Heyward drew 49 snaps and ran a route on 75% of dropbacks. The results? Six targets, 4 receptions, and just 24 yards. This isn't a potent offense, but Heyward checks in very cheaply, and it's worth noting one of last week's targets came at the goal line.

Under the Radar

Calvin Austin III (FLEX)

Austin is barely in the receiver rotation right now, but the team values and uses his speed and versatility. He could blow up this slate with a big kick return or jet sweep.

Kickers and Defenses

In a game with low projected scoring, with quarterbacking this shaky, the defenses have to be in play. Most will probably opt for Steelers, who will face a rookie passer at home. I plan to zag with Tennessee; they're also not exactly lining up against prime Tom Brady. The Titans have struggled against the pass, But the Steelers rarely make teams pay for that, and Pickett has been sacked on 7.8% of his dropbacks anyway.

Neither team scores well in the red zone, either, so the kickers make for good disruptor. It helps that both Nick Folk and Chris Boswell are among the league's most accurate kickers from in close.