NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
Vegas is bracing for a classic here, a rare season finale that will determine the NFC playoffs’ top seed. The defenses are strong situationally, but both tend to give up points in chunks, hence the wildly aggressive 56.0 total. The home Lions are razor-thin -3 favorites, so the only thing Vegas really knows about this game is that both teams will push to score. That creates massive Showdown opportunity, of course. But it also puts a heavy burden on us to find the low-played, out-of-nowhere scorers. No bonus points for “spotting” Jahmyr Gibbs or Justin Jefferson tonight.
Injury Roundup
The Vikings are remarkably healthy for a Week 18 matchup. Lead RB Aaron Jones is off the injury report and will start tonight.
The Lions remain without grinding RB David Montgomery, though their ground game has hardly skipped a beat. Backup Craig Reynolds now looks iffy for tonight; a lightly-used reserve may find some utility in his place. Reserve wideout Khalif Raymond should suit up.
Captain Consideration
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (CPT or FLEX)
Darnold has sizzled with 24.3 DraftKings points a game dating back to Week 11. He’s throwing with major volume, too; only four passers have dropped back more over that span. His Week 17 was scintillating: 33 of 43, 377 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception in a crucial win over Green Bay. He now draws a Lions defense shredded by injuries, one that gave up a matching 377 yards to its last opponent.
There’s almost nothing not to like about Darnold tonight, so rostership is the real question. Which red-hot passer will slighly more DFSers ride? Who’s got the more dependable volume and/or the most touchdown upside?
Ultimately, I think that question gets answered by their receiver teammates. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison feel likely to draw a bit more of the public’s eye than Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, so perhaps Darnold draws a hair more himself. But it’s hard to go wrong in either direction; both passers could clear 30 DraftKings points tonight. They’re even strong Captain options, since many will reflexively fill that slot with a wideout.