NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas is bracing for a classic here, a rare season finale that will determine the NFC playoffs’ top seed. The defenses are strong situationally, but both tend to give up points in chunks, hence the wildly aggressive 56.0 total. The home Lions are razor-thin -3 favorites, so the only thing Vegas really knows about this game is that both teams will push to score. That creates massive Showdown opportunity, of course. But it also puts a heavy burden on us to find the low-played, out-of-nowhere scorers. No bonus points for “spotting” Jahmyr Gibbs or Justin Jefferson tonight.

Injury Roundup

The Vikings are remarkably healthy for a Week 18 matchup. Lead RB Aaron Jones is off the injury report and will start tonight.

The Lions remain without grinding RB David Montgomery, though their ground game has hardly skipped a beat. Backup Craig Reynolds now looks iffy for tonight; a lightly-used reserve may find some utility in his place. Reserve wideout Khalif Raymond should suit up.

Captain Consideration

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Justin Jefferson
4. Jared Goff
5. Sam Darnold

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback

Sam Darnold (CPT or FLEX)

Darnold has sizzled with 24.3 DraftKings points a game dating back to Week 11. He’s throwing with major volume, too; only four passers have dropped back more over that span. His Week 17 was scintillating: 33 of 43, 377 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception in a crucial win over Green Bay. He now draws a Lions defense shredded by injuries, one that gave up a matching 377 yards to its last opponent.

There’s almost nothing not to like about Darnold tonight, so rostership is the real question. Which red-hot passer will slighly more DFSers ride? Who’s got the more dependable volume and/or the most touchdown upside?

Ultimately, I think that question gets answered by their receiver teammates. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison feel likely to draw a bit more of the public’s eye than Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, so perhaps Darnold draws a hair more himself. But it’s hard to go wrong in either direction; both passers could clear 30 DraftKings points tonight. They’re even strong Captain options, since many will reflexively fill that slot with a wideout.

Running Back

Aaron Jones (CPT or FLEX)
Cam Akers (FLEX)

Jones continues to dominate the Minnesota backfield, with 72% of the opportunities (carries plus targets) with a full complement of snaps. He hasn’t cleared 20 DraftKings points since Week 12, but he’s only posted single digits twice all season. The problem has been a relative lack of touchdowns, just 7 on 291 touches from scrimmage. Jones is a tough runner, but he doesn’t pound much near the goal line.

Jones could conceivably sink Showdown rosters by injury. He has yet to miss a game here in 2024, but he’s lost chunks of several – including Week 17’s win – to various dings and bruises. The playoff-bound Vikings are deep in the backfield and could find themselves forced to make a mid-game decision on their lead back.

Akers offers nothing more than a breather to Jones while a game is competitive. He rarely touches the ball in early quarters, and he still appears to run in quicksand. Only an early Jones injury would make him a shrewd cost-cutting play.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson (CPT or FLEX)
Jordan Addison (CPT or FLEX)
Jalen Nailor (FLEX)

Jefferson can madden the fantasy world with quiet, even catchless stretches of games. In fact, he’s “only” drawn double-digit targets in 4 of 16 games here in 2024. The good news: three of those four have come over the last three weeks, and he’s had four other games of nine looks apiece. There’s simply no reason to second-guess Jefferson, who hasn’t caught fewer than 7 balls or notched less than 73 yards since Week 12. Just two weeks ago, he shredded the Seahawks’ upper-tier secondary for a 10-144-2 line. He may not dominate the offense quite to the level Amon-Ra St. Brown dominates his, but Jefferson is the supreme talent and boasts the same weekly ceiling.

Addison has settled in as the prototypical complement to the alpha Jefferson. His target share has stablized down the stretch, with 26% over the last 7 weeks, and he’s scored 7 times over that span. Four of those have come in the red zone, too, which proves Addison is far more than a mere deep threat. Still, the presence of that lid-lifting speed (1.69 air yards per snap, 12.7 average target depth) boosts his ceiling even further. I’m a bit more intrigued by him than the No. 2 across the field, Jameson Williams.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson (FLEX)

With Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the edges, Hockenson seemingly always has ample room to roam the middle of the field. It just doesn’t tend to result in much dynamism for the plodder, who’s cleared 60 yards in just 3 of 9 tries this year. Strangely for a TE of his skillset, Hockenson isn’t utilized much near the goal line. You’d have to go back 14 games, into last season, to find his last single target from inside the 10-yard line. As a safety blanket and little more, Hockenson simply sits way down the upside ladder in this matchup. It would take several high-profile disappointments around him to find true relevance tonight.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff (CPT or FLEX)

Again: pick your poison between Goff and Sam Darnold. Both are ultra-efficient, red-hot passers flush with weapons on all levels of the field. Both have recent history on their side; Goff, in fact, has averaged 331 yards over the last 7 weeks.

As mentioned above, I prefer Goff just a bit, mainly because I could see Justin Jefferson dragging Darnold’s rostership higher. The other reason is touchdown upside. Darnold throws more touchdowns than his share, but no team has dropped back more in the red zone than the Lions (13.3 times a game). Amon-Ra St. Brown is a huge part of that, and that’s the stack I’m most intrigued by tonight.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs (CPT or FLEX)
Craig Reynolds (FLEX) if active

With David Montgomery shelved, many wrung their hands over the smallish Gibbs’ role. Would it increase, or would Reynolds essentially eat all of Montgomery’s grinding work? Could the Lions ever trust Gibbs as a featured back?

The dirty secret is that Gibbs never needed Montgomery to go down to secure a featured role. This offense tends to support 1.5 featured backs; he’s long been taking on a RB1’s workload. Gibbs opened a few eyes in Week 16 when he took (and was stuffed on) three goal-line carries, but observers know he’d already taken 13 such runs with Montgomery healthy. Gibbs is a touchdown machine, capable of shaking defenders whether 3 or 13 yards from the end zone.

Gibbs will pop up in virtually every lineup tonight, which of course presents a massive fade opportunity. Perhaps he’ll struggle for per-touch efficiency, but Gibbs simply has too many ways to produce to merely ignore. Yes, you’d benefit from a poor overall game, but you likely won’t want to be caught without his points.

If Reynolds can suit up, he’ll play a sliver of Montgomery’s role. But don’t get excited: he hasn’t touched the ball inside the 10-yard line all year. Too many DFSers will talk themselves into him as a cute way to diversify, but there doesn’t seem to be much “there” there.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown (CPT or FLEX)
Jameson Williams (FLEX)

Well, this is the alpha we all anticipated St. Brown to be. His 26% target share since Week 11 is top-shelf, and he just won’t stop scoring touchdowns. He’s up to 12 on the year, second league-wide to Ja’Marr Chase, and they’re spread out nicely – he’s found the end zone in 11 of 16 games.

Red zone action is the reason for that. Only Chase has been looked for more inside the 10-yard line, and 9 of St. Brown’s 12 scores have come from there. He also gets downfield more than his 10.9 yards per catch would indicate. All told, he’s a ridiculously well-rounded asset with a weekly floor of 12-15 DraftKings points – and a ceiling into the 40s (he’s hit that mark twice recently). With St. Brown, the linchpin of an unstoppable offense, it’s foolhardy to overthink factors like roster rate. You don’t want to be one of the few without his output tonight, and besides, I like his roster and Captain rates better than those of Jahmyr Gibbs.

Williams continues to be taken more and more seriously in the offense, with a more defined role each week. His target counts prior to his Week 8 suspension were all over the map: 9, 11, 3, 2, 4, 1. Since returning: 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 5, 7, 8. Rarely week-winning, but never week-killing. That’s an uncommon profile for a big-play speedster like Williams, but it’s worth noting two of his last four touchdowns have come from the 3-yard line.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta (FLEX)

As the world turns. Tabbed for a superstar turn in the 2024 offseason, LaPorta has underwhelmed on raw, season-long numbers. But that’s largely turned on its heel over the last six weeks, since LaPorta’s return from a brief injury:

LaPorta looks locked in as Jared Goff’s No. 2 read just as often as late last year, and his frame and catch radius are once again on display near the goal line. The Vikings generally clamp down on tight ends, but they haven’t faced one of LaPorta’s caliber in months. LaPorta could even Captain teams to GPP gold in a shootout, particuarly if most of the field focuses on wideouts.

Under the Radar

Tim Patrick (FLEX)

Patrick had seemingly carved out an intriguing role as the No. 3 with big red zone utility, but he’s all but fallen off the map over the past two weeks (one target, no catches). There’s no injury here, either – that’s come on 80 snaps. Still, shrewd Showdown folk will consider slipping in the all-but-forgotten Patrick in hopes of a red zone touchdown or two.

Kicker and Defense

I’ll pass on both defenses, thanks. These passers are completing north of 70% of their throws over the past month and look immune from stupid throws. Neither gets sacked often, and neither looks poised for a “whoopsie” type of game tonight.

Since both offenses will move the ball, and DFSers will flock to their weapons, a big rostership vaccuum should open wide for the kickers. Few will concern themselves with Jake Bates, who’s kicked multiple field goals four of his last five games, including a 57-yarder last week. Nor with Will Reichard, who’s 7-for-9 over the last 3 games. But these two present an intriguing zag from the pack. A surprising 19-16 type of game would stun much of the field, after all.