NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

This Vegas line has moved majorly, from Atlanta -2 at open to Washington -3.5 today. Clearly, Vegas took notice of the Commanders’ furious rally and win over Philadelphia. The Falcons look a bit sharper under rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., but no one’s impressed by their win over Drew Lock and the Giants. Washington looks playoff-bound, while the Falcons keep finding ways to underachieve. In general, Vegas doesn’t seem to consider this a particularly close matchup. It would surprise no one to see the line stretch to Washington -4 by kickoff.

Of course, as Vegas (and the public) turn cold toward the Falcons, we Showdown folk get big opportunity thrown our way. Your GPP opponents will likely shade Washington noticeably, with the Jayden Daniels-Brian Robinson Jr-Terry McLaurin-Zach Ertz foursome at the core of their lineups. Thus, attention paid to Bijan Robinson and the Falcons receivers should check in a bit lower than expected – even though they carry week-winning Captain ceilings of their own.

The big concern is that rookie Penix regresses in his second start, or is otherwise kept on a leash. It’s hard to find a Falcons-heavy stack that looks exciting, but riding Penix and a pair of receivers who each find the end zone could swing the whole contest.

Injury Roundup

The Falcons are remarkably healthy for a Week 17 battle. The Commanders, already without No. 2 wideout Noah Brown, will also lack reserve Dyami Brown tonight.

On the defensive side, note that Washington will be without new CB Marshon Lattimore, who re-aggravated his hamstring injury in Week 16. The Commanders aren’t exactly flush with secondary depth.

Captain Consideration

1. Bijan Robinson
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Drake London
4. Terry McLaurin
5. Brian Robinson Jr

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr. (FLEX)

Penix Jr is an intriguing prospect, with a powerful arm and a razor-sharp football mind, but his best days look well ahead of him. In his NFL debut, he was limited to safe, underneath throws that minimized mistake potential. Good for the Falcons; not so much for the Showdown world, which runs on splash plays and touchdowns.

Penix’s average depth of target (aDOT) against the Giants was a low-midrange 7.4, on a par with the likes of Bo Nix and, unsurprisingly, Kirk Cousins. He threw deep (15+ yards) only 3 of 27 times, and he didn’t throw a single red-zone pass into the end zone. Perhaps if he added some running element, he’d be more fantasy-viable right off the bat, but Penix Jr ran for just 3.8 yards per game at Washington. As it stands, he’s no more than a polished rookie taking baby steps against a fast-improving defense. Coach Dan Quinn’s Commanders have made mincemeat of shaky young passers over the past two months.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson (CPT or FLEX)
Tyler Allgeier (FLEX)

So this is what an offense featuring Robinson looks like. He’s averaged 24.0 opportunities (carries plus targets) since Week 7, spinning them into 119.4 yards a game. He’s a goal-line dominator, too: 24 of those opportunities have come from inside the 10-yard line.

Robinson will battle Jayden Daniels to be the night’s most rostered player, and with excellent cause. Should we take the dive? I see no reason not to; there simply isn’t an Atlanta gameplan that doesn’t feature the explosive, versatile Robinson. You almost certainly won’t want to be caught without his hefty usage just to get creative.

With ex-coach Arthur Smith no longer on the sideline, Allgeier is the clear backup and handcuff to Robinson; he hasn’t seen more than 30% of the carries since Week 10. However, take note of his role as the bruising inside complement, and of the fact that he’s had multiple games of 3+ carries from inside the 5-yard line.

Wide Receiver

Drake London (CPT or FLEX)
Darnell Mooney (FLEX)
Ray-Ray McCloud III (FLEX)

London won’t draw nearly the rostership that Terry McLaurin does, but he probably should. McLaurin is no more dominant over his fellow pass-catchers, nor is he more productive than London on a general basis:

McLaurin does carry the upside of a better, more comfortable rookie quarterback, and his team is favored at home. But all those factors just serve to drive down interest in London, who boasts a similar range of outcomes. If Penix locks onto London more and more as expected, they’ll swing Showdown GPPs together tonight.

Mooney’s role has remained consistent throughout most of the year, and he’s posted 7 games of 80+ yards. That said, he’s also posted three Showdown-killers over the last five weeks. His target share has dipped to just 16% over that span, and he’s still not a part of the team’s red zone plans. He’s always a fair play, but a far less attractive one than he was last month.

McCloud has settled in as a dependable slot man, but he’s near the bottom of the league in aDOT and air yardage production. He’s a fair play for 3-5 cheap catches, but that’s likely his ceiling – and you’re far from the only Showdown player to think of him. McCloud has posted just 33 yards over the last 2 weeks; that would tank a Falcons-heavy lineup that includes him.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts (FLEX)

Oof. Pitts’ last 7 yardage outputs: 11, 55, 9, 0, 14, 28, 7. That’s come on a meager 12% of team targets; blocker Charlie Woerner looks like a much bigger part of the offense right now. For all his athleticism entering the league, Pitts has yet to show the ability to get open consistently or win contested balls downfield. What does he do? It’s hard to say, and it’s hard to mine any upside here. Pitts is usually a distant fourth or fifth read for a rookie passer, and he’s drawn just 3 targets from inside the 10-yard line all year.

Washington Commanders

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels (CPT or FLEX)

Daniels has peeled back slightly from his early-season, ROY-runaway efficiency. That said, he’s now throwing with steady volume – 30+ attempts in 9 of his last 11 full games – and throwing downfield more too. His aDOT has climbed from 29^th to 22^nd, and he’s cleared 250 yards in two of four. Obviously, his rushing prowess (52.6 yards per full game) only adds to the legend.

Of course, all that production and all that praise result in heavy rostership. You won’t be slipping anything by your leaguemates by playing him; most of them will do the same. The two burning questions on Daniels are:

1. Should I fade him entirely? It’s a gutsy move, but Daniels did post a shaky stretch (just 14.7 DraftKings points per game from Weeks 7-11). There’s always risk of the lanky, quick-to-run Daniels going down with injury, or sitting early in a blowout. Still, he’s the most likely point-accumulator tonight, and you don’t want to be caught without him on even a 25-point night.
2. Then, should I Captain him? Again, he’s the most likely on the slate to reach 30 points. But he also might be the highest-rostered and highest-Captained. I’d rather get creative and find a multi-touchdown scorer that fewer people are in on.

Running Back

Brian Robinson Jr (CPT or FLEX)
Jeremy McNichols (FLEX)

Robinson Jr continues to overachieve; he’s churned out 72.8 scrimmage yards and 13.3 DraftKings points a game. He’s a safe, solid option that screams “cash games” but may lack week-winning Captain upside. Robinson Jr only sees 5.0% of team targets, and he shares goal-line duties with Daniels (and perhaps McNichols). He’d likely only pay off as Captain in a low-scoring, low-impact game.

McNichols has taken on most of Austin Ekeler’s pass-down role, with six targets over the past two weeks. His overall snap count (28%) and usage (4.5 touches a game) haven’t been useful, but it may be worth noting he took a goal-line carry for a two-point conversion last week. Perhaps he’ll be worked in more over the final two weeks.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin (CPT or FLEX)
Olamide Zaccheaus (FLEX)
Jamison Crowder (FLEX)

McLaurin’s 22.3% target share isn’t dominant in traditional alpha fashion. That said, he’s absurdly effective with those targets – his 2.28 yards per route are on a par with the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp. He’s also more likely to reach that dominant alpha tier as the receivers around him keep dropping like flies. No other active wideout tonight has caught more than 35 balls this year. When Daniels needs a play, he looks almost exclusively to McLaurin.

In other words: McLaurin carries a Captain outlook tonight, but likely at less rostership (and way less Captainship) than Bijan Robinson or Jayden Daniels. That alone could make the difference in a deep GPP.

Week 16’s madcap rally made Zaccheaus relevant. The veteran caught 5 of his 8 targets for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns, but it wouldn’t be wise to chase that production a second time. Zaccheaus is no stranger to 30-snap and 40-snap games, but this was just his second finish above 50 yards. Many will roster him tonight, but the ceiling isn’t what it appears to be.

Yes, Crowder is still a thing, and he’s back in Washington. And over the last two weeks, he’s turned 7 targets into 42 yards and a pair of short-yardage touchdowns. Crowder has long been an underrated asset near the goal line, and there’s a real chance those touchdowns weren’t flukes.

Tight End

Zach Ertz (FLEX)

Ertz’s rostership will be inflated tonight by memories of his early-season volume and recent three-game touchdown stretch. But his offensive role has been bisected of late, from 20% of targets through Week 12 to just 10% since. He offers almost nothing after the catch and hasn’t cleared 50 yards since Week 8. There are much juicier sources of affordable upside on this slate.

Kicker and Defense

Signs point to touchdowns, not field goals, in this game, with both defenses ranking near the bottom of the league in red zone defense. Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo was placed on IR replaced by Riley Patterson. The new, rookie-led offense doesn’t look designed to create many scoring opportunities for Patterson. . At least, not enough to make him a sleeper play tonight. Across the field, Zane Gonzalez has attempted just five field goals over his four games in relief of Austin Seibert.

Given the rookie Penix under center, the Washington defense makes some sleeper sense. They’ve registered nine sacks and forced six turnovers over the last four weeks.