NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The Packers' diverse and occasionally high-flying offense meets the Seahawks' revamped and occasionally dominant secondary. It's in an intriguing battle that could be headed for a postseason rematch, but Vegas seems in on the Packers. They're -2.5 on the road despite just a 6-6-1 ATS spread this year. That tells me Vegas is far more confident in Jordan Love and his weapons than in a Seahawks group that bends but doesn't break often.

In the DraftKings Showdown world, that suggests we shade toward rostering Packers. They're not only projected to play better and score more, they also offer a wider array of options to beat the Showdown GPP field. Everyone knows and is in on the Seahawks' playmakers, as there simply aren't many who touch the ball. But a Showdown player can take down a GPP by hitting on the correct Packer amongst a field of several.

Injury Roundup

Both offenses are relatively healthy for a Week 14 battle. The Seahawks will likely be without oft-dinged RB Ken Walker III (calf) for the second straight week and the third of 2024. Zach Charbonnet, though, is hardly a step down in his place (keep reading).

Captain Consideration

1. Josh Jacobs
2. Zach Charbonnet (if Walker sits)
3. Ken Walker III (if he's able to suit up)
4. DK Metcalf
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
6. Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback

Jordan Love

Love continues to throw the ball well; the big Captain concern here is simple volume. Ever since the Week 10 bye, the team has sought to take a noticeable amount of the burden off of Love and the air attack:

Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs continues to grind through the schedule like butter and set up relatively easy wins. Against the Seahawks' blossoming young secondary, it's unlikely coach Matt LaFleur will test much down the field. Love may again top out around that 16-17 threshold he's hit of late.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs (CPT or FLEX)

This just looks like a perfect fantasy storm: the Seahawks can't contain the run, while the Packers love to run and do it exceptionally well.

Since the Week 10 bye, there's been a concerted effort to keep the ball in the hands of the grinding Jacobs. They've boosted their run rate from 53% to 57% and gone 3-1, with the only loss coming by a field goal in Detroit. It's clearly what LaFleur wants to do. To that end, Jacobs looks like the surest thing in this slate for volume. He's taken on 22, 26, 23, and 18 touches since the bye, scoring 8 touchdowns in the process.

You can probably flip a coin as to whether Jacobs or the Seahawks' Zach Charbonnet will be rostered higher. Charbonnet's success is a bit more present in the public eye, as we've followed Ken Walker III's status all week. I think it's close enough that the better Showdown prospect is the better Showdown prospect, and that's the dominant Jacobs, who's favored to win and feels all but certain to find the end zone.

Wide Receiver

Christian Watson (CPT or FLEX)
Jayden Reed (FLEX)
Romeo Doubs (FLEX)
Dontayvion Wicks (FLEX)

There are reasons to love all the Packers receivers:

• Watson is a game-breaking playmaker, capable of winning deep or after the catch
• Reed is wildly dynamic, able to win in the slot or in the open field
• Doubs is the most capable on intermediate routes
• Wicks is a super-sub, always ready to gobble up targets when a teammate is shelved

That said, it's never easy to pin down their week-to-week usage. One or more always seem to be Questionable or worse and a risk for in-game aggravation. More importantly, there's no alpha, nor anything close, or any way to project who will lead the show that week. Many of their fantasy eruptions come when one or more of them are shelved by injury or suspension. When we dive deep into their time all together, we get an interesting (and low-upside) picture:

Packers WRs Full Games Together, 2023 – 2024 (15 games)

Since any of these guys are capable of flipping a Showdown GPP, though, they're all worthy of deep dives. Ultimately, I prefer Watson's ability to threaten 100 yards on just a handful of targets and catches. He sits near the top among 116 qualifying wideouts in aDOT (4th) and completed air yards (36th). Anytime a guy draws just 16% of his team's looks yet still produces that much air yardage, it's fair to be impressed. And it's fair to project a big day in a Showdown matchup with shootout potential.

As always, the case for Doubs and Reed is that the team will confidently scheme to get them the ball. Still, with ceilings that aren't quite as tantalizing as they seem in theory, I don't see a Captain play between them.

Tight End

Tucker Kraft (CPT or FLEX)

Everyone's favorite TE find of 2024, Kraft actually hasn't blown the doors off the fantasy world. On a per-game basis, he's averaged 10.3 DraftKings points, 10th-most among TEs and on a par with Zach Ertz and Evan Engram. That said, I think he's squarely in the Captain conversation tonight. Many of your GPP-mates will likely look to juggle the Packers' wide-ranging WRs onto their roster(s), which could leave Kraft somewhat in the dust. And yet, he's just about as likely to post a Showdown-winning line as any of them. Let's throw him into that Packers receivers chart from above and narrow it down to just this season:

Packers Receivers Full Games Together, 2024 (8 games)

Kraft's floor isn't as strong as the other Captain choices tonight, but in a Showdown GPP, we're not chasing floor. We're far more interested in guys capable of taking down a GPP with an unexpected 90 yards and 2 touchdowns. I like Kraft's shot as well as anyone's.

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith

Like the Packers, the Seahawks are looking to put less and less on their quarterback's plate as they transition into playoff mode:

No longer chasing the NFL's yardage crown, Smith is a middling Showdown play outside of Seahawk-stacked builds. He doesn't boast the upside to swing a GPP the way you'd like to see from a quarterback. The more dynamic play is to identify his dominant receiver of the night and Captain THAT guy. Smith doesn't look poised to drag you there on his own.

Running Back

Zach Charbonnet (CPT or FLEX)
Ken Walker III (doubtful)

Charbonnet will likely step in for his third start of the year, and the fantasy world is right to be excited. All he's ever done in relief of Walker is produce: over 12 games with more than half the snaps, Charbonnet has averaged 70 scrimmage yards and found the end zone 7 times. He's fresh off a career day against the Cardinals: 29 touches, 193 scrimmage yards, 2 touchdowns. And at $9,000, he also comes at a hefty DraftKings discount from counterpart Josh Jacobs ($11,400). Workflow may be a concern, as Vegas could see the home-underdog Seahawks falling behind early. That said, Charbonnet is more likely than Walker to insert himself into the pass game intentionally rather than a mere checkdown.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf (CPT or FLEX)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (CPT or FLEX)
Tyler Lockett (FLEX)

It would be premature to say that Smith-Njigba has "surpassed" Metcalf as the Seahawks' top target. Metcalf remains the chief matchup-winner, capable of beating just about any NFL defender downfield on any given play. But Smith-Njigba is truly making good on his promise as a slippery, dynamic weapon out of the slot. Since the Week 10 bye, with all three of these guys available together, he's been nothing short of excellent:

Weeks 11 – 14 (all 3 WRs played together)

Common sense suggests Lockett isn't quite this done; he'll likely reclaim a bit more of his share in the coming weeks. At the moment, though, Geno Smith is focusing heavily on Smith-Njigba, and that looks unlikely to change tonight. Slot men and tight ends have found the most success against the Packers' boundary-heavy secondary.

As for Metcalf, he won't have pesky Jaire Alexander to contend with on the outside. In fact, I prefer his ceiling overall tonight by a hair. They'll both see heavy usage and push for 6-8 catches, but Metcalf is more capable of swinging your GPP with just one of them.

Tight End

Noah Fant (FLEX)

Fant is a machine, painstakingly programmed to never top 65 yards in a game. He hit that mark eight weeks ago, making for his highest total since Week 9 of 2022. Even when healthy, Fant only demands 11% of Geno Smith's targets, and he's only been thrown at once all year from inside the ten.

Kicker and Defense

The Seattle defense makes for a truly intriguing dice roll. The Packers' reputation is that of a high-octane offensive attack, but they're making a strong effort to slow down and push less as the playoffs approach. It's also worth noting the Seahawks sit second in football over the last month in red-zone defense. On the other hand, the Packers rank near the bottom of the league in preventing those short touchdowns.

Hence, I like the Packers' Brandon McManus, at least a bit for those chasing deep Showdown GPPs. Foggy, wintry Seattle is never a fun place to roll the dice on a kicker. Still, if these teams move the ball as well as Vegas expects yet struggle to find the end zone, the strong-legged McManus could take advantage several times.