NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and FLEX spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique FLEX builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas is waffling a bit on this game. Washington's spread varies from –6.5 to –5.5, with a total ranging from 42.5 to 44.5. The uncertainty is fair: these are two below-average (yet tough to project) teams with young, shaky passers. No one can play with any real certainty when Sam Howell is a near-touchdown favorite.

A 42.5 total feels low, for sure. The 2023 Bears aren't known as scorers, but Washington's supposedly stout defense has been burned for 30+ in 3 straight weeks. Both secondaries are easy to pick on: Chicago sits 31st league-wide in net yardage allowed per throw, with Washington at 23rd. And between the two, they've allowed 16 touchdown passes thus far.

In other words, you may not trust the quarterbacks to show up with their heads on straight, but you'll likely want to be in on (some of) their receivers.

My Off-Hand Prediction: Commanders 26, Bears 20

Injury Roundup

The Bears have deactivated wide receiver Chase Claypool, who's likely played his last snap with the team. Commanders wideouts Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel will play.

Captain Consideration

1. DJ Moore
2. Brian Robinson Jr
3. Jahan Dotson
4. Terry McLaurin
5. Sam Howell

Chicago Bears

Quarterback

Justin Fields (CPT or FLEX)

Fields is always in play due to his legs. But last week, with his back against the proverbial wall, he showed that there's juice in his arm as well. He posted his first 300-yard game in the NFL, as well as his first day of 4 touchdowns. For all the real-world concerns over his diagnosis, accuracy, and ball control, Fields can produce fantasy numbers of some sort when asked to. A shootout of any sort would make him a must-play.

The only question, then, is just how much Captain consideration Fields deserves. And there simply isn't much screaming upside here – not enough for our Captain, anyway. His penchant for turnovers limits the offense's snaps, so it's unlikely we'll see some 38-33 barn-burner. And for all his rushing chops, he's run for 25, 47, 3, and 59 yards thus far, with just 3 rushes from inside the 10. That's not exactly some Lamar Jackson level of production set to erupt at any moment.

Running Back

Khalil Herbert (FLEX only)
Roschon Johnson (FLEX only)

Herbert finally woke up for the DFS world in Week 4 – right when no one was on him. After amassing just 29 touches through the first 3 weeks, he took on 22 last Sunday, producing 122 yards and finding the end zone. Of course, it's never wise to chase out-of-nowhere production like that for $8,600. You'd never pay that for Herbert in a standard slate, but in a game low on proven volume, he fits in nicely.

Johnson spent Week 4 as the clear-cut backup to Herbert. The lines were fuzzy to open the year, but his snap share has slid from 42% in Week 2 to 22% last Sunday. It appears his 6-catch Week 1 was fool's gold.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore (CPT or FLEX)
Darnell Mooney (FLEX only)
Equanimeous St. Brown (FLEX only)

Moore has excelled as Justin Fields' No. 1 wideout. He won't flash consistently in Chicago, but he's a wildly dynamic playmaker drawing a 20% target share. Moore posted 6-104 in Week 1 and 8-131 in Week 4 and could easily repeat tonight; he boasts the most upside of the slate. And he'll spend much of the evening working against shaky rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes.

Mooney has seen his fantasy star dim with the arrival of Moore. This offense can't support multiple fantasy wideouts at the moment; Mooney has drawn just 5 targets since Week 1.

St. Brown is no guarantee to see any real action tonight. He's a career special-teamer who's caught 58 passes over chunks of 4 seasons. Still, he drew 42 snaps last Sunday as Chase Claypool sat out, so he's worth noting at an $1800 salary. And Claypool did collect 14 targets over the first 3 weeks.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (FLEX only)

Kmet made for a fantastic Week 4 story, catching 7 of 9 targets for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns. He's woven deeply into the offense and has Justin Fields' trust... but just how valuable are those factors? If we're not comfortable projecting another Fields eruption (author's note: we're not), then Kmet hasn't risen to the point of a $9,600 Captain price tag. Kmet drew just 15 targets through the first 3 weeks, producing 44, 38, and 22 yards. He's cleared 50 yards in just 4 of his last 21 games, and he's not much of a touchdown threat, either.

Under the Radar

Tyler Scott (FLEX only)

Scott saw 14 snaps in Chase Claypool's Week 4 absence, catching 2 balls for 19 yards. He's a speedy slot type in the Tyler Lockett mold, and he could be a $200 source of 3 or 4 cheap receptions.

D'Onta Foreman (FLEX only)

Foreman, who's taken on just 7 touches as a Bear, is more relevant in real-life trade talks than in DFS circles. But those looking for a desperate, dirt-cheap stab in a deep GPP could do worse than spending just $200 on Foreman, who racked up 914 yards and 5 touchdowns last year in a committee in Carolina. He's just an injury away from a sizeable role.

Washington Commanders

Quarterback

Sam Howell (CPT or FLEX)

Talk about a mixed bag. Howell's four passer ratings thus far in 2023: 98.6, 77.6, 108.8, 41.5, 98.6. His DraftKings production: 17.2, 21.3, 4.6, 19.6. In other words, he's produced on a similar level to Fields, albeit without the 33-point outlier from last week. They're similarly green-looking under center, and both carry significant downside from week to week as they learn NFL defenses.

But Howell, who's favored and checks in 15% cheaper, makes for the better Showdown play. He's throwing the ball fairly well himself at the moment; last week, he racked up 290 yards in nearly knocking off the Eagles. And as with Fields, there may be untapped rushing upside as well. Howell's 6 rushes from last week may be a sign of things to come: he's a tremendous athlete who ran for 11 touchdowns in his final year at North Carolina.

Running Back

Brian Robinson Jr (CPT or FLEX)
Antonio Gibson (FLEX only)

This backfield belongs almost entirely to Robinson. The snaps have split fairly evenly (53% to 45%), but Robinson has taken on 76% of the duo's touches. Robinson is not a very efficient runner (just ), so there's not a ton of upside in play here. Plugging him in at Captain is a play for hefty volume and touchdown opportunity. It's essentially a bet that the Commanders will impose their will on the game – NOT a bet on Robinson burning down the house.

At this point, Gibson is no more than a FLEX play to mix things up in a GPP. Gibson entered the league as a gifted, dual-threat back, but he's only lost coach Ron Rivera's trust more and more as time has worn on. Here in 2023, he's produced just 122 scoreless yards from scrimmage – and fumbled three times already.

Wide Receiver

Jahan Dotson (CPT or FLEX)
Terry McLaurin (CPT or FLEX)
Curtis Samuel (FLEX only)

McLaurin will likely dominate the roster percentages tonight. He's the No. 1 wideout, and he's coming fresh off a 10-target breakout performance. This slate isn't exactly loaded with dynamism, so there's nothing wrong with fitting McLaurin into most builds.

But Dotson, coming $ cheaper, may be the sharper play. Dotson also broke out of an early-season target slump Sunday, drawing nine of his own. But while McLaurin posted 86 yards, Dotson stayed close to the line and put up just 27. That creates a great opportunity to (a) zag from the pack while (b) still rostering the team's potential target leader.

Samuel has been a bit more consistent with targets, but he's averaged just 4-45 along the way. If not for a short touchdown run last week, he'd be a complete afterthought. Thankfully, he's priced nicely ($5,600) for his mid-volume, low-upside role. Samuel can catch 4-7 balls in any game script.

Tight End

Logan Thomas (FLEX only)

Fourth in the pecking order, Thomas is no more than a differentiation play. He's not cheap enough to intrigue; that $5,200 could be spent on someone like Darnell Mooney.

Under the Radar

None; the Washington offense is a tightly concentrated one. No. 4 wideout Dyami Brown has caught just five balls through four games.

Kicker and Defense

When considering kickers and defenses, the main factors I look at are (a) the game's scoring potential and (b) the quality of the red-zone defenses. Washington ranks 6th in red-zone touchdown rate, while Chicago sits 30th, suggesting the Bears will struggle more to produce touchdowns. That means a small FLEX boost for Bears kicker Cairo Santos, and another for the Washington defense.