Thursday Showdown Week 15

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The football world – and Vegas sportsbooks – know not to expect much from this anemic “showdown.” For the second straight week, we have a matchup projected under 35 points. Just seven days after Bailey Zappe vs. Mitchell Trubisky, hunker down for Easton Stick vs. Aidan O'Connell. The Chargers will be without Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. The Raiders haven't scored a touchdown in 102 minutes of game action and may not have Josh Jacobs.

We likely won't see many touchdowns scored tonight, so the focus will be on usage. The obvious candidates will be discussed below, but their rostering will be sky-high and, in some cases, prohibitive. The pivot plays off those obvious guys will ultimately tell the tale tonight.

Injury Roundup

Where to begin? The Chargers are missing their quarterback and top two wideouts, and there's little sample size to build much from. Even tight end Gerald Everett is listed as questionable, though he seems likely to suit up.

Across the field, Jacobs seems unlikely to push through a quad injury for this meaningless game. The short week makes it an even tougher sell. Davante Adams is questionable as well, though players do tend to play through mid-week illnesses.

Captain Consideration

• Davante Adams (if active)
• Jakobi Meyers
• Austin Ekeler
• Josh Jacobs (if active)
• Joshua Palmer
• Easton Stick

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback

Easton Stick (CPT or FLEX)

Understandably, the public has no read on Stick, who had taken all of two NFL snaps before last week. And he looked uneven in sudden action, managing 7.5 yards per throw but showing a propensity to cough up the ball. Still, there's a lot to like about his sneaky Captain potential. Stick won't be throwing to Allen or Williams, but he's shown some rapport with rookie Quentin Johnston, with whom he's spent ample time on the scout team. The pair hooked up for back-to-back big plays, and they won't get much resistance in this matchup.

And that says nothing of Stick's real fantasy ceiling, which comes on the ground. Stick averaged 46 rush yards per game – with sack yards deducted, remember – and ran for a stunning 41 touchdowns at North Dakota State. This year, we've seen backups Tommy Devito and Tyson Bagent struggle badly as passers yet add sneaky value on the ground. DFSers won't complain about Stick's greenness if he adds 10 points with his legs.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler (CPT or FLEX)
Isaiah Spiller (FLEX)
Joshua Kelley (FLEX)

Ekeler has, to the surprise of very few, lost a noticeable gear at age 28. He looks a step slower and less sudden, understandable at this stage – and on the heels of yet another ankle injury. Not to mention, this version of the Chargers doesn't provide near the scoring ceiling it once did. It all adds up to a fade in most matchups, but tonight's lack of options will land Ekeler in most of the public's plays.

As one of the few players on either team with locked-in usage, Ekeler shouldn't be fully faded. If this game plods to something like 16-14, as expected, you won't want to be one of the few without Ekeler's volume. But it makes sense to look at other, higher-ceiling guys at Captain to stray from the field. Ekeler leads this backfield, but he doesn't quite dominate it, and he's only topped 70 scrimmage yards in three of his last six games.

On most weeks, Kelley and/or Spiller only siphon about 20-25 snaps away from Ekeler and only about a half-dozen touches. All eyes (relatively speaking) are on Spiller, whose 6 carries last week made for his most since Week 9 of 2022. Still, that's only in relation to the plodding Kelley. Without the typical potency of this offense, there's little to no speculative value here. The only real upside in playing one of them would be an in-game Ekeler injury, which wouldn't even be a fun thing to root for.

Wide Receiver

Joshua Palmer (CPT or FLEX)
Quentin Johnston (CPT or FLEX)

If nothing else, the Chargers can now take an in-depth look at two young talents who were blocked by Allen and Williams.

Palmer should return from injury – he hasn't played since Week 8 – as the immediate No.1 option outside. He drew a 20% target share alongside Allen, with a team-high aDOT of 12.6 yards. He'll almost certainly be moved around the formation now, even into the slot at times, and should see strong volume, if nothing else. Just 60% of a typical Allen game would net Palmer team-high numbers.

Johnston has frustrated throughout his rookie year with drops and mental miscues. He saw a big jump in snaps with Palmer out, yet he averaged all of 3 catches and 37 yards. There may be a silver lining, though, as the second-team Johnston will now run routes for second-team quarterback Stick. Perhaps their two big plays from last week's second half will mushroom into something special.

Tight End

Gerald Everett (if active – FLEX)

Everett has burrowed his way more and more into the offense of late. He's produced lines of 4-43-1, 4-44, and 5-39 over the past three weeks after averaging just 3-20 before that. Everett is a novelty player in this offense, but he finds usage as a checkdown target, as well as a red-zone threat.

Under the Radar

Alex Erickson (FLEX)

Erickson has made an impression in recent weeks, leapfrogging Jalen Guyton for snaps as the No. 3 wideout. He'll remain in that role now but could conceivably top the disappointing Johnston in targets.

Las Vegas Raiders

Quarterback

Aidan O'Connell (FLEX)

Perhaps O'Connell isn't the answer for the next iteration of this Raiders rebuild. O'Connell has been ineffective since taking over: his 5.0 adjusted yards per throw sits behind the likes of Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, and Joshua Dobbs. Unlike similarly shaky passers like Dobbs, Desmond Ridder, or Daniel Jones, O'Connell doesn't bring any rushing production to the table (10 yards through 7 games). It would surprise no one to see Jimmy Garoppolo back under center, perhaps as soon as tonight.

In other words, it's hard to find any real upside here. A stack with one of the Raiders' productive wideouts makes sense, but there's little reason to force O'Connell into a Captain slot. There are much sexier ways to diversify.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs (if active – CPT or FLEX)
Ameer Abdullah (if Jacobs sits – FLEX)
Zamir White (if Jacobs sits – FLEX)

White has yet to nail down the handcuff role in Las Vegas, nor even carry the ball five times in a game. Still, he profiles as a lead back at 214 pounds, and he's drawn camp buzz for two years running. White was a blue-chip recruit to Georgia before injuries (and James Cook) sapped his value. If there's anything there, we should get to see it tonight against a shaky run defense. The Chargers have tightened somewhat, but they've been gashed for chunk runs by quick, one-cut runners like Rhamondre Stevenson, Keaton Mitchell, and the Lions' dynamic duo. White theoretically brings a similar style to the table.

More intriguing would be Abdullah, who would presumably handle third-down duties (and perhaps more). Abdullah has done little with his 18% snap share here in 2023, but he's been blocked by workhorse Jacobs. Tonight, he projects to just as many touches as White but with somewhat of a PPR resume. He's caught 38 balls over his last 25 games, and last week he took nearly double the snaps of any non-Jacobs Raider.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams (CPT or FLEX)
Jakobi Meyers (CPT or FLEX)
Hunter Renfrow (FLEX)

Adams remains a target dominator (30% from O'Connell) and is capable of producing near-WR1 lines. Over the last four weeks, he's averaged 6 receptions and 74 yards, which are technically strong marks. That said, his upside has all but drifted away with the shaky O'Connell taking snaps. Adams hasn't reached 90 yards in a game since Week 3, and he's caught just a single touchdown from O'Connell. He continues to dominate attention in the red zone, yet he's hauled in just 6 of 10 targets from his new passer – none for touchdowns.

Meyers, who draws similar usage but with a much smaller name, might be the sharper Captain play in GPPs. Adams will always lead the way, but Meyers has spent all of 2023 with a target share north of 20%, and he's cleared 70 yards in 5 of 12 games. And he won't draw nearly the roster attention of Adams. Meyers has turned Renfrow into a pure part-timer, one whose usage is ticking upward (five targets per game over the last three), but who hasn't topped 50 yards all year. He and Meyers bring very similar things to the table, and Meyers is simply more valued on offense.

Tight End

Michael Mayer (FLEX)

Mayer intrigues the dynasty world, though here in the now, he's topped 3 receptions or 40 yards just twice. And that's despite the fact that he's taken 82% of offensive snaps since Week 5. The only real hope is that Raiders top brass directs more attention toward Mayer, the team's second-round pick after an ultra-productive career at Notre Dame. Those looking to shake things up for just $3,200 could do worse.

Under the Radar

Tre Tucker (FLEX)

Tucker's usage has cratered since drawing 7 targets back in Week 11. That said, his snaps have yo-yoed all season based on the matchup. If this game stays tight enough to keep throwing, Tucker could conceivably catch 2-3 balls at just $1,200.

Kickers and Defenses

Yes, please. With two shaky (at best) quarterbacks under center, both defenses are foaming at the mouth, and shrewd DFSers will take notice. Of the two, the Chargers likely make the most sense, as O'Connell tends to bleed sacks (a 7.5% rate) and interceptions (3.3%). When he first saw NFL action back in Week 5, it came against these very Chargers, who notched 7 sacks, forced 3 fumbles, picked off a pass, and allowed just 6.1 yards per throw. Across the field, there's plenty of narrative for the Raiders as they face Stick, an unknown commodity who looked scattershot (and fumbled twice) last week.

The kickers offer value, too, but most of it lies with the Raiders' Daniel Carlson. He's an accurate kicker, and the Raiders struggle mightily at turning red-zone trips into touchdowns (28th in football).