We could call Superflex formats quarterback flex. The position is that important. It is the only position that sees wild fluctuations in average draft position (ADP) value in changing the format. A combination of a safe floor and increasingly rising ceilings of the position with changing NFL offenses featuring rushing quarterbacks increases the value. But one factor weighs in above all: scarcity.

The scoring distribution for the primary starting quarterbacks in 2022 broke down as follows (using full PPR scoring):

The three highest scorers in fantasy were quarterbacks: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes II. After that, three more quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields) scored as much as elite position players: Justin Jefferson, Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, and Tyreek Hill.

Moving beyond that group, "average" quarterback production flushes to elite production at other positions. Driving down the bell curve on quarterbacks widens different positions. It becomes a floor play relative to the ceiling elsewhere.

Three primary avenues for navigating the quarterback position in Superflex:

• Doubletap - Start your draft with two elite to high-end options early. Managers with this approach will take two top quarterback options and hammer the remaining positions.
• Early and Late - Grabbing one top-end option, then one in the middle to the later area. This strategy opts for middle-of-the-road safety. Taking one early ensures you have an anchor with a high upside at the position and allows you to play chicken and read when the rest of the league starts flirting with their third quarterback to lock up the second piece.
• Streaming/Late Round - Unlike a one-quarterback league, the scarcity of the position will likely see all starters rostered. Almost every variation of a draft strategy has reasons for fading one position relative to the value of others. Instead of doubling down and over-drafting a quarterback to fill the position, this allows players to build strong lineups throughout their roster and then relies on taking multiple later-round quarterbacks, ideally three or four, to work the best matchups. You can pay off this way, but the position scarcity sticks you if caught on the wrong side of a run.

The distribution chart shows a dropoff after the top 16 quarterbacks. ADP currently holds 16 quarterbacks in the first four rounds. You can do the math. Waiting through the first four or five rounds to take your quarterback commits you to start to throw picks at the position frequently. Waiting beyond that window will leave players chasing through the entire season. With three teams in your league putting 24 or more points per game at the position and another three putting 20 or more in, the wide band of quarterbacks averaging less than 14 points per game sees nearly a double-digit hurdle weekly.

Quarterbacks are important.

But how do you navigate the position round by round?

This walkthrough is based on 12-team leagues. Variations of that league size either increase or decrease the value of quarterbacks in concert. Here, the Footballguys Draft Dominator can help you with these variations. In short, play in a 16-team league? Grab QBs immediately. Play in an eight-team league? Valuations will look closer to one QB format.

The Elite Eight

Round 1: Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence

This group takes up anywhere from the first eight to twelve picks in your draft. Jefferson, Chase, Kelce, and McCaffrey are usually the players who get spliced within. One factor determines your decision with this group: you are very unlikely to get one of this tier coming back.

Picks at the top of the draft had a significant advantage based on last year's scoring. The difference between pick three in Hurts and four in Burrow was four points per game. Quarterbacks after that first three have the ceiling to break out into the top tier without some risk on the next group.

Key Decision Point: If you want an elite quarterback, take an elite quarterback if they are available. But you can survive with one of the position players hitting their ceiling and still build in quarterback upside.

• QBs Gone: 8
• QBs Remaining: 24

The Enigmas

Round 2: Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott

Both of these quarterbacks have the ceilings to break into the top tier. But there are risks. With Watson, the risk of his poor play upon returning from nearly two years off is a new standard. There are also human elements affecting ADP. With Prescott, his rushing was far from the baseline he established before his injury in 2020.

If you passed on the quarterback in round one, it becomes tough not to consider these players. There is a strong contingent of position players that fill the second round who can make up for waiting a bit longer. Those players serve to push Watson and Prescott into the middle or back half of this round.

Key decision points: If you pass on these two players after passing on the quarterback in round one, you should likely jump to the Round 4 group as your QB1 option.

• QBs Gone: 10
• QBs Remaining: 22

Scary and Boring

Round 3: Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins

Tagovailoa falls here because of his youth, ceiling to start the 2022 season and injury history. He is a discount version of Joe Burrow, lacking the rushing upside but able to survive on volume and talent with his top two receivers, Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Cousins is a discount version of Dak Prescott. Yes, he lacks a rushing upside, but he has shown himself to be a consistent fantasy producer and represents the tail end of the QB1 options. An additional bonus: the player who selected Jefferson in round one could have a stacking option with Cousins sitting in this round.

There are roughly eight position players between Cousins and the next quarterback in ADP, Jones. Essentially, you see players who missed the top-tier quarterbacks in round one opting for differentiation strategies that see them.

Key decision points: Stacking potential with Jefferson, Hill, and Waddle.

• QBs Gone: 12
• QBs Remaining: 20

The Middle

Round 4: Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith
Round 5: Jared Goff, Russell Wilson

Lumping these two groups together as the theory in this section applies to the entire group. When you are out of this group, 18 quarterbacks are off the board. It does not take a math major to see 16 quarterbacks held to within 10 points of the top quarterback in 2022. Players after this grouping can not provide competitive options and potentially serve more. Still, it looks like a safe bet multiple players this year could finish as top 12 QB1s, and very few of those remain after leaving this section.

Following ADP logic shows another trend that usually occurs. Players who value quarterbacks to take them in round one are already thinking about the position. Often, they grab their second quarterback earlier, too. So, instead of every team in the league having a QB1 and then half having their QB2, you are more likely to run into situations where one or two teams have no quarterbacks and eight or nine have two quarterbacks. Once that second quarterback is selected, that team is likely to grab a third quarterback once they feel comfortable filling out other positions.

In short, the more players wait on the quarterback, the more they can wait. The one danger area is drafting on end and needing help to a big run of teams grabbing their third quarterback.

Key decision points: If you are waiting through this group, you may keep waiting.

• QBs Gone: 18
• QBs Remaining: 14

The Wildcards

Round 6: Derek Carr
Round 7: Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford
Round 8: Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Round 9: C.J. Stroud
Round 10: Sam Howell, Brock Purdy

A wide band of players, but similar logic applies to the group. Howell and Purdy should see themselves rising, given their announcements they will be the starting quarterback. As their value increases, the ADP value on Carr, Young, Love, and Stafford pulls back as the lack of scarcity increases. If you are fading quarterbacks, there is a counter of 24 starting spots. Six of those remain open. There are nine players in this group. You can do the math.

You can do well waiting until this group, loading a roster full of talent at other positions, and walking out with multiple players here.

Murray deserves special mention. A healthy version is pushing into the top tier. But questions about, in regards to his injury recovery and the overall competitive nature of the Cardinals. While he could make a roster a cheat code in the fantasy playoffs, the manager could be eliminated before they can plug him in.

Key decision points: It isn't easy to feel good about a roster that does not have two quarterbacks after this cluster is off the board.

• QBs Gone: 27
• QBs Remaining: 5

The Leftovers

Round 11: Mac Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Desmond Ridder
Round 12: Ryan Tannehill
Round 13: Baker Mayfield

The end of the road. Five starting quarterback spots left. Five players left. Ridder and Tannehill hold the highest upside in the group, bringing rushing ability, weapons, and Tannehill past success. Garoppolo and Mayfield are similar in that they have some elite teammates to help raise their floor. If there is a "Geno Smith," a player who ascended from obscurity to become a solid QB1 option, they have the structure to follow a similar path. Mac Jones is a quarterback, too.

The one additional situation to watch is Arizona. Clayton Tune, Colt McCoy, and now Joshua Dobbs are battling to take reps for Kyler Murray. Given the uncertain nature of Murray, it would help if you targeted the winner of this battle. Surprises happen.

Key Decision Point: It is advisable to have a third quarterback to cover bye weeks or injuries. The draft is going to be your cheapest opportunity to do so.

• QBs Gone: 32
• QBs Remaining: 0