Sunday Showdown Week 5

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Dallas Cowboys are heading to San Francisco to take on the 49ers as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers have scored 30 or more points in each game this season. The Cowboys have had similar offensive production minus their major letdown to the Arizona Cardinals. Interestingly enough, the total is set at a modest 45 points, leaving the field to decide which team continues the scoring trend. Outside of McCaffrey, the San Francisco offense is plenty affordable, while Dallas’ primary skill players are both over $10,000. With at least four players in this game showing long track records of ceiling performances, it is going to be difficult to get either Quarterback in the Captain spot.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Elijah Mitchell – Knee - Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• • Christian McCaffrey
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Tony Pollard
  • Deebo Samuel

COWBOYS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott $9,600 – Flex

Prescott is putting together his most efficient start to date, but he is not lighting up the scoreboard as he once was. The Cowboys have been much more balanced since moving on from Kellen Moore. Prescott is averaging 34 attempts per game and has yet to hit the 300-yard-bonus. With the total set so low, and so many expensive skill players with high ceilings, it’s no surprise we find both quarterbacks out of Captain consideration. Both offenses are capable of putting up video game numbers, but the Cowboys have the tougher of the two paths.

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Pollard’s snap share has been unstable all season. Last week, Deuce Vaughn was involved heavily for the first time, which resulted in a 53% snap share for Pollard. He also hasn’t been used in the passing game as much as anticipated. His usage has been inconsistent, but he should get more passing work against an incredible 49ers rush defense.

Wide RECEIVER

CeeDee Lamb $10,000 - Captain or Flex

Much like Pollard, Lamb’s usage has been inconsistent. He’s got 1 game with over 10 targets while averaging just under 6 targets in each of the other 3 outings. Even still, he projects roughly the same as Pollard with a better matchup and likely lower roster percentage. A case could be made to just play Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but Lamb gets the slight nod over Pollard for Dallas stacks.

Brandin Cooks $5,600 - Flex

Many talking heads have speculated that Cooks does not look healthy. He missed Week 2 with a knee injury but has played over 70% of the snaps since. He’s earned a respectable 11 targets over the last 2 weeks but has failed to contribute much with them. His price is slightly high for his projection. Michael Gallup has a similar role and rostership projection for $1,000 less.

Jake Ferguson $5,000 – Flex

Ferguson is the man tasked with doing his best Dalton Schultz impression. So far, he’s managed. He’s earning just under 7 targets per game while averaging over 60% of the snaps.

Michael Gallup $4,600 – Flex

Gallup’s snap share remains around 60% but his role has increased over the past 2 weeks. He’s been targeted 13 times resulting in 152 yards. He looks healthy for the first time in over a year and is producing the way Dallas expected when they re-signed him.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Rico Dowdle $3,000 – Flex

Deuce Vaughn saw a massive snap increase last week, but it was due to the 38-3 win over the Patriots. Dowdle is expected to resume backup running back duties, and Pollard will need the help against the best defense in the NFL.

49ers OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Brock Purdy $9,400 – Flex

Similarly, to Prescott, Purdy’s price makes him stand out, but the players around him make it difficult to fit him in at Captain. He’s got a 300-yard-bonus under his belt, but he’s mostly been an efficient distributor for his plethora of playmakers. He should be a priority in the Flex with one of his primary receivers at Captain.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey $11,800 – Captain or Flex

McCaffrey is on pace to break records this season with 600 total yards and 6 touchdowns through 4 games. DraftKings could’ve gotten away with increasing his salary to make things interesting. At this price, he will be in roughly 90% of the lineups. We can lean into him at Captain by being overweight on the 49ers defense.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk $8,400 – Captain or Flex

Aiyuk has developed into the team’s true top receiver, while Samuel has become more of a fancy Mecole Hardman. Both roles are extremely important in the San Francisco offense, but Aiyuk’s two ceiling performances have earned him the edge in pricing. With Trevon Diggs lost for the season, Aiyuk should have a great day at an affordable salary.

Deebo Samuel $7,600 – Captain or Flex

Samuel often does not project well because his production is so dependent on his play-making ability. He’s capable of having a ceiling performance any game against any defense, as he demonstrated in Week 3 with 129 yards on 12 targets. Last week he was blanked, so except an emphasis to be put on getting one of the league’s highest-paid receivers involved.

George Kittle $6,400 – Flex

Kittle appears to be the odd man out since the addition of McCaffrey last season. In Week 3’s dominant offensive performance against the Giants, he was targeted nine times. He’s only been targeted eight total times through the other 3 games. His price is reflective of the performances he’s been known to have, but $6,400 is too expensive for his role of late.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Kyle Juszczyk $400 – Flex

With Elijah Mitchell out, expect Juszcyk to handle an increased workload.

Ray-Ray McCloud III $200 – Flex

The 49ers’ top options garner so much attention that the third wide receiver is often forgotten. McCloud’s deep ball presence earns him consideration in large-field tournaments.