OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Minnesota Vikings are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 2.5-point underdogs with a 42.5-point total. While neither team has had the season they expected, they're both trending up and are evenly matched. With so many strong mid-ranged options, this is one of the few slates we can be comfortable with either Quarterback at Captain. Build types are going to be fairly similar as there are not many obvious punt options to allow for flexibility in the mid-range. Employing either Hockenson or one of the Quarterbacks at Captain will ensure the lineup starts uniquely. Double or triple-stacking whichever Quarterback lands in the Captain spot will help guide the rest of the build. Both running backs are in a price range which could force them to go overlooked, but they've both got strong volume and can be played in the same lineups as we assume a neutral gamescript.
INJURY ROUND-UP
Alexander Mattison - Concussion - Questionable
Justin Jefferson - Hamstring - Questionable
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
VIKINGS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Joshua Dobbs $10,600 - Captain or Flex
Dobbs has been a sigh of relief for the Vikings, not just as a passer, but on the ground. He has rushed for 100 yards through his first two games, with five total touchdowns. His salary may be tough to stomach at first glance, but he is a legitimate dual treat with a ceiling that includes either the passing or the rushing bonus.
RUNNING BACK
Alexander Mattison $7,400 - Flex
Mattison is expected to return from his concussion in time for Sunday night's game. He left early last week but had carried the ball 16 times in each of the two games prior. He's expected to play roughly 55% of the snaps and should benefit from a neutral gamescript.
RECEIVER
T.J. Hockenson $9,400 - Captain or Flex
Hockenson's target share is not only elite for tight ends but for receivers in general. Over the last four weeks, he's been targeted 48 times. The addition of Dobbs has not seemed to matter, as Hockenson has over 200 yards and a touchdown in Dobbs' two starts. Hockenson is the strongest play of the slate and should be far more expensive.
Jordan Addison $8,400 - Flex
Addison has handled the WR1 role admirably since Jefferson injured his hamstring. He's caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two games, but his workload falls short of Captain consideration. He does not have access to the same ceiling as the other options listed.
K.J. Osborn $6,600 - Flex
With Jefferson set to miss another game, Osborn remains the third option in the receiving game. He's been targeted more than Addison in Dobbs' first two starts. His output has been far more modest, but he's both a contrarian option and a value at his salary.
Brandon Powell $4,000 - Flex
Powell was an incredible punt option for the last few Vikings slates. Now that his price has caught up, he's a bit less enticing. He's still worth keeping in the player pool, as he should see around four targets on roughly 70% of the snaps.
BRONCOS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson $10,000 - Captain or Flex
Given how prevalent the 3-3 build is expected to be on this slate, both quarterbacks are viable at Captain. Wilson gets the slight nod based on being the 2.5-point home favorite. Both quarterbacks have found rushing success over the last couple of games. Wilson also has five touchdowns over the last two games, albeit on low volume. His target tree has become more projectable, which bodes well for building Broncos stacks.
RUNNING BACK
Javonte Williams $8,800 - Flex
Williams was the optimal Captain last week with his late-game receiving touchdown against the Bills. His workload has officially reached the elite tier. Over the last two games, he's handled the ball a whopping 55 times with two receiving touchdowns. Regardless of the game script, Williams figured to be involved with a snap share of around 60%.
RECEIVER
Courtland Sutton $8,200 - Captain or Flex
Sutton finally separated himself as the team's clear-cut WR1 last week with 11 targets on an 87 % snap share. He's also caught a touchdown in four straight games, with seven on the year. Despite his dominant volume, his price remains the same. While there are a plethora of strong options in the $8,000 range, Sutton has both the highest ceiling and a safe floor.
Jerry Jeudy $7,800 - Flex
Jeudy has been utilized primarily as a downfield threat recently. His deep pass interference late in last week's game helped seal the deal for the Broncos over the Bills. His snap share is still reasonable at 65%, and his role makes him a strong contrarian play for large field tournaments. His price will likely keep his roster percentage low, with K.J. Osborn projecting similarly for $1,200 less.
Marvin Mims Jr. $5,600 - Flex
Mims' price continues to climb as his opportunity remains firmly in punt territory. The only justification for his salary increase would be his snap share which jumped to 69% last week, but he's not getting nearly enough opportunity to make value without making huge play.
Adam Trautman $3,600 - Flex
Trautman was the preferred Punt play against Buffalo last week due to his strong route participation with a dominant workload. Now that his price has jumped, he's far less palatable. He has only earned more than two targets in a game twice this season, and not since Week 5.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey $1,800 - Flex
Humphrey was a strong contrarian punt last week, and he paid off with 1 catch for 14 yards. He's not guaranteed a target, but with his snap share likely around 30%, he's worth consideration for large-field Broncos stacks.