Sunday Showdown Week 10

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Las Vegas Raiders are heading to New Jersey to take on the Jets as 1-point underdogs with a 36.5-point total.

INJURY ROUND-UP

No injuries of note.

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Breece Hall
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Josh Jacobs
4. Davante Adams

RAIDERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aidan O'Connell $8,400 - Flex

O'Connell's two starts have not been exciting, but he has performed admirably given the circumstances. In his first outing, he attempted a promising 39 passes but followed up with just 25 last week. He also connected with Davante Adams far less his second time around. Given his price, he would not need a healthy box score to land in the optimal lineup. He doesn't have a ceiling worthy of Captain consideration but his floor is plenty viable at $8,400.

RUNNING BACK

Josh Jacobs $11,000 - Captain or Flex

Jacobs handled a season-high 26 carries in Antonio Pierce's first game as head coach. It was clear the team's identity going forward would be set by the trenches. He also earned no targets for the first time this year. Even without a passing game role, Jacobs is the safest Raider to invest in, especially at $600 less than Adams.

RECEIVER

Davante Adams $11,600 - Captain or Flex

It was clear that Pierce was emphasizing righting Josh McDaniels' wrong by getting his star players the ball. Unfortunately, O'Connell was not able to do that as he missed Adams multiple times. The two ended up connecting just four times on seven targets. Adams is going to earn a similar target share to Garett Wilson but costs $2,000 more. Aside from large field tournaments, Jacobs is the superior option and allows for Jets passing game stacks.

Jakobi Meyers $9,200 - Flex

Meyers earned his lowest snap share since Week 1 and has been targeted just 6 times in the last two weeks. At just $400 less than Wilson it's difficult justifying Meyers. It's far easier to play Jacobs instead of Adams, and then use the savings to pay for Wilson over Meyers.

Michael Mayer $3,600 - Flex

In Weeks 6 and 7 Mayer earned a boost in opportunity and snap share. He is still playing a plethora of snaps, but his opportunity has dwindled. He was targeted just twice in Week 8 with Jimmy Garappolo, and again in Week 9 with O'Connell. His price has put him out of consideration with far cheaper options earning similar target shares on this slate.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Hunter Renfrow $1,000 - Flex

Renfrow is the only Raider outside of Jacobs who is worth prioritizing. The Jets have multiple viable options in his price range which will keep his roster percentage low. Over the last three weeks, he's been targeted 10 times. He has not produced much in the way of yards, but it wouldn't take more than three catches to have a chance at the optimal lineup.

JETS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Zach Wilson $8,600 - Flex

Wilson managed an absurd 49 passing attempts last week. He finished with a season-high 263 yards but threw for no touchdowns. He also took eight sacks and fumbled three times. The recipe for success will not include another 49 dropbacks for Wilson, but he's a better option than O'Connell as he has more affordable stacking options. Breece Hall can bail him out with yards after the catch, and Garrett Wilson is similarly viable to Adams at a far lower salary.

RUNNING BACK

Breece Hall $11,400 - Captain or Flex

Hall handled at least 20 opportunities in each of his last two games. His snap share has been over 60% since Week 5. With multiple punt options, he is not difficult to fit with Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Jacobs.

RECEIVER

Garrett Wilson $9,600 - Captain or Flex

Garrett Wilson was due for an impressive performance last week as his target share has reached elite levels. Unfortunately, he only caught 7 of his 13 targets for 80 yards. He's still been targeted at least 12 times in his last 3 games and is playing nearly every snap. He's the best Captain option as he has both an easy path to the slates' highest score and a salary discount.

Allen Lazard $6,600 - Flex

Lazard had what was most likely the worst performance of his career, yet his price increased by $1,000. He caught just 2 of 6 passes for 18 yards. He also missed multiple key blocks and committed penalties on major plays. At his price, he's not worth considering outside of large field tournaments.

Tyler Conklin $5,200 - Flex

Conklin is a far superior option to Lazard when trying to get unique in large-field tournaments. After catching 6 passes last week for 66 yards, he received a price hike. He's still a strong option as most lineups are going to revolve around playing both Wilsons, Jacobs, and Hall with a min-price player. Playing Conklin over Jacobs or Hall will make for a unique option that doesn't include a punt play.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Michael Carter $1,800 - Flex

Carter is used as a passing down specialist. In game-script where the Jets are down, Carter is a must. He caught 6 of 6 passes for 24 yards last week when the Chargers led the entire game. He also played 31% of the snaps.

Xavier Gipson $200 - Flex

Gipson earned no targets but played 58% of the snaps last week. Cobb was inactive for a second week in a row, and Malik Taylor's snaps dropped from 36% to 22%. It appears as though the Jets have finally settled in on their WR3 spot. Gipson is playing far more snaps than most minimum-priced players on any slate.