Sunday Showdown Week 6

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The New York Giants are heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills as 15-point underdogs. Daniel Jones has been ruled out, but we won't be getting a discount on Tyrod Taylor. Saquon Barkley is expected to return, but his price makes him difficult to get excited about. If being two-touchdown underdogs wasn't enough to detract from stacking the Giants, their prices will. The field will be heavily stacking the Bills so it will be especially important to find unique pairings.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Daniel Jones - Neck - Out
Darren Waller - Groin - Questionable
Dalton Kincaid - Concussion - Questionable
Dawson Knox - Wrist - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Josh Allen
2. Stefon Diggs
3. James Cook
4. Gabe Davis

GIANTS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tyrod Taylor $9,400 - Flex

Taylor has not seen a full game of action since 2021 with the Houston Texans. He will have a tough time finding success with a below-average receiving corps. He would be more enticing if he were given the $6,000 backup pricing, but because Jones was declared out early, he's got a starter's price tag.

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley $11,000 - Flex

Barkley is returning to action this week for the first time since injuring his ankle in Week 2. His workload is difficult to project, yet he's priced as if he will be a full-go. It's worth monitoring the news leading up to the game, as he could be a productive option in the passing game with the Giants expected to play from behind.

RECEIVER

Darren Waller $7,400 - Flex

Waller finally hit his stride last week with 11 targets. He caught 8 passes for 86 yards on a 92% snap share. His price this week makes him the most enticing option for the Giants, and forces unique Bills stacks.

Darius Slayton $5,200 - Flex

The Giants have been trying to find their wide receiver rotation all season and it appears it has finally settled out. Slayton led the team in snap share, just ahead of Wan'dale Robinson. He's averaging nearly five targets per game but has yet to put together a productive performance. The optimal lineup is unlikely to include more than one Giants' receiver, and both Robinson and Waller are better options.

Wan'Dale Robinson $4,600 - Flex

Robinson's snap share has increased each game since returning in Week 3. He will be the Giants' most utilized wide receiver. He may not produce much in yardage, but his five catches will be plenty at his price.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Jalin Hyatt $1,200 - Flex

With the Giants' struggles at wide receiver, Hyatt is a talented rookie who will continue to get opportunities. He is worth considering in Bills' onslaughts as a dart throw.

BILLS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen $12,800 - Captain or Flex

Allen is the most likely Captain, but he will also be rostered there over 40% of the time. When fading Allen at Captain it will be important to build around scenarios in which he does not break the slate. When building a lineup without Allen at Captain, it's worth considering at least one of Tyler Bass or the Bills' defense.

RUNNING BACK

James Cook $9,200 - Captain or Flex

Cook is the best Captain option behind Allen because he is the only one who has the chance to negatively correlate. As 15-point home favorite Cook is expected to get ample opportunities on the ground. He's earned double-digit carries in every game except last week in London where the entire offense struggled. He's likely to clear 20 touches.

RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs $12,200 - Captain or Flex

Diggs is averaging 10 targets per game and has hit the 100-yard-bonus 4 times through 5 games. To land in the optimal lineup at Captain over Allen, he will need to clear 100 yards and score at least 1 touchdown.

Gabe Davis $7,800 - Captain or Flex

Davis just barely squeaks into Captain consideration for large field tournaments since nearly all of the builds will include Allen, Diggs, or Cook. He's caught a touchdown in four straight games, and is always a threat for a deep completion, even if he manages a low target share.

Dalton Kincaid $4,200 - Flex

Kincaid and Dawson Knox are both questionable. If either of them ends up sitting, the other would be excellent value at cost. Kincaid is averaging just over 50% of the snaps and is used primarily as a receiver, leaving Knox to blocking duties. Kincaid has multiple receptions in each game but has yet to hit pay-dirt.

Dawson Knox $3,800 - Flex

Knox managed a season-high 6 targets last week with a 70% snap share. He produced just 17 yards, but his output would be likely to increase if Kincaid sits. Even if Kincaid is active, Knox makes for a reasonable dart throw to get the cumulative roster percentage of a Bills' heavy lineup down.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Deonte Harty $600 - Flex

With Allen, Diggs, and Cook taking up so much salary, Harty makes for great salary relief. He's playing roughly 25% of the snaps and is all but guaranteed at least two designed opportunities.

Trent Sherfield $200 - Flex

Sherfield splits the third wide receiver duties with Harty and Khalil Shakir, but he is the most traditional option of the three. He's earned seven targets over the last three games, which is plenty of opportunity to pay off his minimum salary.

Player Chart