OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the player with the lowest projected roster percentage..
GAME THEORY
We kick off Sunday Night Football with a classic divisional matchup between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. The total sits at 45, while the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites on the road. With Mike McCarthy taking Kellan Moore’s role as a play caller, we expect the Cowboys to be more run-heavy. They have not signed anyone to compliment Tony Pollard, so for now, he projects to be one of the league’s few remaining workhorses. Opposite Pollard is another member of the league’s exclusive “workhorse” club in Saquon Barkley. While this game will highlight two backs with heavy usage, the game theory will be predicated around the receiver. Dallas is straightforward with their new addition, Brandin Cooks, looking to be a one-for-one replacement for Amari Cooper. The Giants have six receivers who could start the game on the bench and end the game as the top options. Many of them fill similar roles and none of them managed to separate themselves in camp.
INJURY ROUND-UP
Darren Waller – Hamstring – Questionable
Wan'Dale Robinson – Knee – Doubtful
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
COWBOYS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Dak Prescott $10,000 – Captain or Flex
McCarthy shipped Kelan Moore out of town because of his apparent infatuation with scoring too many points. He will want to run the ball more. This comes right as Prescott gets a fully healthy receiving corps for the first time since early last season. Even if the attempts come down for Prescott, he is worth Captain consideration, especially since Pollard is a capable pass catcher himself.
RUNNING BACK
Tony Pollard $11,000 – Captain or Flex
Pollard has made it through camp without a significant addition to his backfield. As it stands now, only Deuce Vaughn and Rico Dowdle will compliment him. In 2022 the Cowboys rushed at the 9th highest rate, and that wasn’t good enough for McCarthy. Expect Pollard to handle touches at one of the league’s highest rates.
RECEIVER
CeeDee Lamb $10,400 - Captain or Flex
Lamb finished 2022 4th in the NFL in target share. Even if the passing volume goes down, Lamb's target volume will be high enough to weather the storm. He is a candidate for 10+ targets every game.
Brandin Cooks $7,200 – Flex
Cook's price is a bit high when considering his age and role in the offense. I would not be surprised to see his and Gallup's prices even on the next slate.
Michael Gallup $5,200 – Flex
Gallup and Cooks should have similar target shares and snap shares, but Gallup is $2,000 cheaper and will carry a similar roster percentage.
Jake Ferguson $4,800 – Flex
Ferguson takes over as the Cowboys’ starting tight end after Dalton Schultz followed the money to Houston. Ferguson has a chance to finish third in the target pecking order ahead of either Cooks or Gallup.
UNDER THE RADAR –
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.
Deuce Vaughn $3,000 – Flex
Vaughn appears third on the depth chart but with his exciting preseason paired with Dowdle’s lack of production in his time with Dallas, expect Vaughn to compliment Pollard sooner rather than later.
GIANTS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Daniel Jones $9,400 - Captain or Flex
Typically, the quarterback of the underdog team is difficult to stack at Captain. Jones is an interesting case because he is an accomplished rusher, and his primary pass catchers are uniquely cheap.
RUNNING BACK
Saquon Barkley $10,600 – Captain or Flex
Like Pollard, Barkley has very little competition for opportunity. He is expected to push 20 touches in any game script and should be a staple in any player pool.
Receiver
Darren Waller $8,400 - Flex
Waller should lead the team in target share at just $8,400. Unfortunately, he enters the game with a hamstring injury that keeps him out of Captain consideration. If positive news comes out closer to game-time, Waller will be the best point-per-dollar play on the slate.
Isaiah Hodgins $6,400 – Flex
Hodgins was the most productive option for Jones down the stretch last year, but at $6,400 he’s too expensive to consider for any reason outside of being contrarian.
Darius Slayton $5,400 – Flex
Slayton is the second most expensive option as the longest-tenured receiver amongst the starters. His role is up in the air, but at least his rapport with Jones is well-documented and he earned a new contract with the team this offseason.
Jalin Hyatt $4,600 – Flex
Hyatt is not considered a starter, but he may be the most talented receiver on the roster. He will push for more opportunities, but it remains to be seen how early. Pay attention to beat reports heading into the game on how snaps will be divided amongst this thinned group.
Parris Campbell $4,400 – Flex
Campbell signed with the team this offseason and is listed as the team’s third starter. He failed to show much in preseason but his price alone warrants inclusion in the player pool as someone with an opportunity to lead the receivers in target share.
UNDER THE RADAR –
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.
Sterling Shepard $2,400 – Flex
Shepard is not technically listed as a starter, but he was active in the preseason and is one of the longest-tenured Giants on the team. When healthy, he will be involved and could find his way into the starting lineup as soon as any of these younger options fall behind.
Daniel Bellinger $400 – Flex
If any negative news comes out for Waller, Bellinger is a free square at the minimum salary.