Nick Chubb has been a dominant force in the NFL since his debut and, at 28 years old, shows no sign of slowing down. His continued success can be attributed to his exceptional talent as one of the most impressive rushers the league has ever seen. As he enters his sixth season, there's excitement brewing for a potential career-best year and an even more elevated level of play from Chubb. The departures of both Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson from the team have opened the door for Chubb to assume the largest workload of his career. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson should look more like the All-Pro we saw in Houston than the Baker Mayfield clone we saw last year after his tumultuous absence. Stronger play from Watson benefits everyone in the offense and should ensure Chubb has more favorable game scripts and more opportunities to score in the red zone.

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Undeniable Talent

This table illustrates how impressive Chubb has been over the past three seasons compared to his running back peers:

Chubb has consistently ranked in the top four overall in Elusive Rating according to ProFootballFocus each year. He's also secured a top-three ranking each season in 10+ yard runs. Additionally, he has consistently placed in the top eight in yards after contact per attempt and in the top four in rush yards over expected per attempt, according to NextGenStats. What does this all mean? Chubb consistently excels at evading tackles, making big plays, and achieving more yards per carry than expected.

Improved Offensive Environment

Jacoby Brissett was a revelation last season, propelling the Browns offense to ninth in Expected Points Added per Play and 12th in Success Rate while under center from weeks 1-12. Conversely, Baker Mayfield was benched in Carolina after just five weeks. These developments lend credibility to the theory that Kevin Stefanski, a capable head coach and offensive mind, had his offenses hindered by Mayfield for years. When Deshaun Watson joined late last season, he struggled significantly, but his challenges were likely expected after nearly two years without playing. Looking back to 2020, Watson's last full-time season, he led the Texans offense to 11th in Expected Points Added per Play and 8th in Success Rate. If Watson can approximate his past performance, Chubb may find himself in the most successful offense of his NFL career this upcoming season.

Unprecedented Opportunity

The departures of Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson leave 174 total opportunities (carries + targets) up for grabs from last season. It's reasonable to expect that Chubb, a superior runner and capable pass catcher, will take on at least a portion of these vacated opportunities, giving him a strong chance to handle the largest workload of his career this upcoming season.

A significant boost to Chubb's value would come from an increased role in the passing game, and there's reason to believe that will happen. With Hunt's 44 targets from last season now up for grabs, and no other running back besides Chubb receiving more than four total targets, Chubb is well-positioned for an increased receiving role. Over the past three seasons, his yards per route run metrics have been respectable: 1.17, 0.94, and 0.94. Back in 2019, he caught 36 of 49 targets for 278 yards. When we last saw Watson for a full season, he targeted David Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr a combined 81 times in 2020. A realistic projection for Chubb should place him closer to 50-60 targets rather than the 37 he received in 2022.

Last year's fifth-round pick, Jerome Ford, is expected to serve as Chubb's backup. Ford saw very limited play as a rookie, rushing just eight times for 12 yards in 2022. His playing time in his sophomore year remains uncertain, but it's worth noting that he handled 236 touches for 1,539 total yards and 22 touchdowns as a senior at the University of Cincinnati in 2021. Nevertheless, it's hard not to get excited about Chubb's expected hold on this backfield in 2023.

A Critical Year for Kevin Stefanski

Despite Stefanski's reputed offensive prowess, he has yet to demonstrate it in Cleveland fully. Under Stefanski, the Browns have a record of 26-24, and his offenses have only ranked 16th, 18th, and 14th in yards and 14th, 20th, and 18th in points, respectively. With the Browns heavily invested in Deshaun Watson, the team is under immense pressure to win. Consequently, this could be a make-or-break year for Stefanski. He must deliver results with Watson as his full-season quarterback or face the likelihood of dismissal. His best strategy for success is to lean on his top players, such as Chubb, thereby supporting those projecting an increased workload for Chubb this upcoming season.

Price-Adjusted Plan of Attack

Currently, Chubb's Underdog Best Ball ADP (Average Draft Position) is 18.8. Among our staff, his average ranking is 22.7 overall, and I personally rank him at #15 overall.

Chubb is fairly priced by the market and is a target at his current cost. In fact, a significant trend has emerged in the fantasy football landscape this spring. Elite wide receivers and quarterbacks are being drafted higher than ever, causing workhorse running backs to slide down the draft board. As a result, players like Chubb are available in the late second and early third rounds of best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy. This is an opportunity you should seize.

Final Thoughts

Last season, Nick Chubb secured his spot among the top running backs in the league, ranking third in both rush attempts (302) and rushing yards (1,525) and fifth in rushing touchdowns (12). He was far from insignificant in the passing game, too, catching 27 passes for 239 yards and an additional touchdown. As we look ahead to 2023, Chubb's workload and projected volume are expected to be on par with or even surpass the top echelons of NFL running backs. Moreover, his involvement in the receiving game is also set to increase, further boosting his potential. Given the anticipated improvements in the Browns' overall offense, the outlook for Chubb in the 2023 season remains highly positive. More often than not, the market accurately reflects a player's value, and Chubb's current average draft position is a testament to that. Despite his high price tag, don't hesitate to invest in his considerable talent and expected performance.