Is Daniel Jones a Diamond in the Rough?

Photo: USA Today Sports

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In fantasy, having a quarterback who rushes is like cheating.

Rushing quarterbacks have changed how we perceive, draft, and value fantasy quarterbacks. It used to be about taking a chance on a rushing quarterback to keep up with the traditional passers, but now the easiest path to elite fantasy production is finding a quarterback who runs a lot.

Daniel Jones has league-winning upside, but the Footballguys staff sees Jones in a different light.

Table: Consensus Projections, Quarterbacks

Jones finished 2022 as the No. 9 fantasy quarterback and was Top 10 in fantasy points per game. He accomplished that while finishing the season with the fewest passing yards among the top-18 QB finishers. The Giants dealt with tons of turnover throughout the season with constant injuries to their pass catchers, including trading away Kadarius Tony, arguably their most talented offensive weapon next to Saquon Barkley. There was a revolving door at left guard all season and underwhelming play from their center and rookie right tackle Evan Neal.

The Giants seem to have found the right coaching combination for Jones' development in Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. Their experience, having previously coached Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen, is evident in the offensive strategies they've implemented for Jones.

Couple graphs on how often QBs throw to open receivers and their accuracy on those throws pic.twitter.com/ZUmL8z9bhi

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) July 5, 2023

In the early stages of Jones' career, his performance was significantly influenced by the percentage of open receivers and his accuracy in throwing to them. Last season, Kafka's offensive strategy, which emphasized a quick-passing game that schemed players open, greatly improved Jones' accuracy. According to Pro Football Reference, Jones ranked 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in Intended Air Yards per attempt (IAY/PT), with 6.4 yards. However, he led all NFL QBs in On Target Percentage (81.0%), a significant increase from his 76.1% in 2021, and finished 18th in the NFL. Considering the resources he had at his disposal, this is quite an achievement. However, the On Target Percentage doesn't fully capture Jones' performance, indicating areas where he can still improve.

Leading the Receiver

Jones has the potential to increase his passing yardage and touchdown expectancy by making slight adjustments to his throws over the middle of the field. While he's generally "on-target", his throws often land slightly behind the receiver. For instance, when targeting Daniel Bellinger, Jones anticipates the break of the tight end and throws to where the body is going to cross the field. However, these types of throws limit the chances for yards after the catch and increase the likelihood of a drop.

This is a simple adjustment that could significantly enhance his yardage output, especially with a faster and improved pass-catching team. Coupled with his career-low Bad Throw percentage of 12.2% (ranking 30th out of 33 QBs), Jones not only has the potential to excel as a fantasy QB, but also to secure more victories for the Giants.

Pocket Improvement

Despite being sacked 44 times last year, Jones showed signs of improved pocket awareness. After initiating a play-action fake, he was able to identify incoming pressure using his peripheral vision, then maneuvered out of the pressure path and moved up in the pocket, all while trying to keep his focus downfield. When the pressure intensified, he made the correct decision to scramble, resulting in a ten-yard gain and evading the closing defenders.

Jones still occasionally lacks situational awareness, leading to sacks, but there was a clear effort on his part to improve. This ties into the coaching staff's emphasis on scrambling. Scrambling has become one of the most efficient plays in football and was a key focus for the New York team. Prior to 2022, Jones had never exceeded 27 scrambles in a season, but in 2022, he had 56.

A thread on quarterback scrambling in the 2022-23 season:

Looking at just scrambles, we can see that most quarterbacks that scramble generate a positive EPA doing so. However there are types of survivorship bias in play here as we will discuss (1/3) pic.twitter.com/tgLLKbxMZv

— SumerSports (@sumersports) June 1, 2023

This thread discusses scramble efficiency and illustrates how taking sacks from scrambling can affect this efficiency. While there's room for improvement for both Jones and the offensive line, the overall trajectory for the Giants' offense is positive. As defenses increasingly focus on preventing deep passes, offenses are adapting by prioritizing a "first read-second read-scramble" approach, which is reflected in the scramble numbers and efficiency.