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In fantasy, having a quarterback who rushes is like cheating.

Rushing quarterbacks have changed how we perceive, draft, and value fantasy quarterbacks. It used to be about taking a chance on a rushing quarterback to keep up with the traditional passers, but now the easiest path to elite fantasy production is finding a quarterback who runs a lot.

Daniel Jones has league-winning upside, but the Footballguys staff sees Jones in a different light.

Table: Consensus Projections, Quarterbacks

Jones finished 2022 as the No. 9 fantasy quarterback and was Top 10 in fantasy points per game. He accomplished that while finishing the season with the fewest passing yards among the top-18 QB finishers. The Giants dealt with tons of turnover throughout the season with constant injuries to their pass catchers, including trading away Kadarius Tony, arguably their most talented offensive weapon next to Saquon Barkley. There was a revolving door at left guard all season and underwhelming play from their center and rookie right tackle Evan Neal.

The Giants seem to have found the right coaching combination for Jones' development in Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. Their experience, having previously coached Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen, is evident in the offensive strategies they've implemented for Jones.

Couple graphs on how often QBs throw to open receivers and their accuracy on those throws pic.twitter.com/ZUmL8z9bhi

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) July 5, 2023

In the early stages of Jones' career, his performance was significantly influenced by the percentage of open receivers and his accuracy in throwing to them. Last season, Kafka's offensive strategy, which emphasized a quick-passing game that schemed players open, greatly improved Jones' accuracy. According to Pro Football Reference, Jones ranked 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in Intended Air Yards per attempt (IAY/PT), with 6.4 yards. However, he led all NFL QBs in On Target Percentage (81.0%), a significant increase from his 76.1% in 2021, and finished 18th in the NFL. Considering the resources he had at his disposal, this is quite an achievement. However, the On Target Percentage doesn't fully capture Jones' performance, indicating areas where he can still improve.

Leading the Receiver

Jones has the potential to increase his passing yardage and touchdown expectancy by making slight adjustments to his throws over the middle of the field. While he's generally "on-target", his throws often land slightly behind the receiver. For instance, when targeting Daniel Bellinger, Jones anticipates the break of the tight end and throws to where the body is going to cross the field. However, these types of throws limit the chances for yards after the catch and increase the likelihood of a drop.

This is a simple adjustment that could significantly enhance his yardage output, especially with a faster and improved pass-catching team. Coupled with his career-low Bad Throw percentage of 12.2% (ranking 30th out of 33 QBs), Jones not only has the potential to excel as a fantasy QB, but also to secure more victories for the Giants.

Pocket Improvement

Despite being sacked 44 times last year, Jones showed signs of improved pocket awareness. After initiating a play-action fake, he was able to identify incoming pressure using his peripheral vision, then maneuvered out of the pressure path and moved up in the pocket, all while trying to keep his focus downfield. When the pressure intensified, he made the correct decision to scramble, resulting in a ten-yard gain and evading the closing defenders.

Jones still occasionally lacks situational awareness, leading to sacks, but there was a clear effort on his part to improve. This ties into the coaching staff's emphasis on scrambling. Scrambling has become one of the most efficient plays in football and was a key focus for the New York team. Prior to 2022, Jones had never exceeded 27 scrambles in a season, but in 2022, he had 56.

A thread on quarterback scrambling in the 2022-23 season:

Looking at just scrambles, we can see that most quarterbacks that scramble generate a positive EPA doing so. However there are types of survivorship bias in play here as we will discuss (1/3) pic.twitter.com/tgLLKbxMZv

— SumerSports (@sumersports) June 1, 2023

This thread discusses scramble efficiency and illustrates how taking sacks from scrambling can affect this efficiency. While there's room for improvement for both Jones and the offensive line, the overall trajectory for the Giants' offense is positive. As defenses increasingly focus on preventing deep passes, offenses are adapting by prioritizing a "first read-second read-scramble" approach, which is reflected in the scramble numbers and efficiency.

Schemed Rushing

QB designed rush attempts per game, 2022:

1. Jalen Hurts: 8.1
2. Lamar Jackson: 7.2
3. Justin Fields: 6.3
4. Josh Allen: 4.6
5. Marcus Mariota: 4.5
6. Daniel Jones: 4.1
7. Kyler Murray: 3.8

Via @FantasyPtsData

— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) July 6, 2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9Te4zrgVA4

Expanding on his scrambling abilities, Jones was utilized more in the planned run game than at any other point in his career. Last season, he rushed for seven touchdowns, five more than in any previous season. The presence of Barkley in their offense draws significant defensive attention, particularly in the red zone. The Giants capitalized on this by using Jones more frequently in these situations. As the offensive line improves and Jones becomes more comfortable with the offense, expect his usage in the red zone to increase.

Offensive Structure

Many coaches view the quick passing game as an extension of the run game, particularly when the ball is released in less than two seconds and gains four to seven yards. The Giants' offense includes sequenced plays designed to exploit defenses that start to anticipate short passes. Last season, the Eagles were known for their formidable pass rush and trusted their defense to pressure even the best quarterbacks. Jones skillfully used the layered approach of the Giants' offense, including the spot route from Bellinger and the deep over from Darius Slayton, to draw the defense in. He then stepped up in the pocket to evade Haason Reddick and executed an explosive play.

The structure of the Giants' offense is set to benefit from the added speed of a healthy WanDale Robinson and rookie Jalin Hyatt. Jones and Bellinger demonstrated good chemistry last season, and now Darren Waller, a game-changer at the tight end position, will join the mix. Speed opens up space in the middle of the field, an area where Waller can excel. It will be exciting to see how much the Giants' offense can improve in 2023.

Jones on the Move

Jones is a natural athlete who can make impressive throws from various platforms, whether he's executing a planned bootleg or buying time by moving to his left or right. A notable example is his throw against the Vikings, where he swiftly clears his hips and aligns himself for the throw. Jones manages to place the ball where only Hodgins can make an exceptional sideline catch, all while off-platform. Jones is an above-average passer outside the numbers and has led the NFL in deep throwing accuracy. He has the tools to excel in this offense. It's crucial to note that this is the first time he's had the same offensive coordinator for consecutive seasons. Jones now has the talent, confidence, and continuity to succeed.

Final Thoughts

Jones ranked among the top-ten fantasy QBs last season, throwing 15 touchdowns. While he's not a perfect quarterback, considering the offensive scheme and the improved weapons around him, it's hard to imagine him not throwing at least ten more passing touchdowns. The offensive scheme is solid, the offensive line is expected to improve, and Jones will likely gain more confidence in the structure and himself. The Giants have been effective in utilizing Jones' running abilities, which defenses often overlook. If Jones can further improve his ball placement, pocket awareness, and decision-making, he could not only be a league-winning QB (currently QB13 on Footballguys ADP) but also has top-five potential. Players being drafted around Daniel Jones include JuJu Smith-Schuster, Quentin Johnston, Khalil Herbert, and Zach Charbonnet. Given his current ADP, Jones is a bargain who could help you win your fantasy leagues.