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The Quest for the Ever-Elusive Workhorse

The workhorse running back, a coveted asset in fantasy football, is becoming increasingly rare in today's NFL. However, Tony Pollard has emerged as a candidate for such a role. With the Cowboys moving on from Ezekiel Elliott and limited competition in the running back room consisting of Ronald Jones II, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, and Rico Dowdle, Pollard has a clear path to significant touches. Playing under the franchise tag this season, Pollard has the opportunity to make a statement. As the saying goes, "The contract year is undefeated." I believe Pollard has the potential to finish as the RB1 overall this season, although the Footballguys staff projections differ slightly.

In the previous season, Pollard proved his worth by finishing as the RB9 in total fantasy points (248.8) and RB10 in points per game (15.6). He achieved career highs in carries (193), rushing yards (1,007), and rushing touchdowns (9), taking advantage of Elliott's declining impact. Despite his success, one might wonder if the Cowboys will seek another back for goal-line, short-yardage, or clutch-time carries. Or possibly re-sign Elliott, which remains a possibility based on team owner Jerry Jones’ public statements.

VIDEO 1: VISION

One critical aspect of a running back's success is vision, which involves not only identifying holes and cutback lanes but also recognizing defensive and offensive leverage. On the play shown above, Pollard failed to see Armon Watts, a defensive tackle, flashing inside as the center pulled through the B gap. Instead of following his blocks and displaying patience as designed in a single-back power run from the shotgun formation, Pollard opted for a cutback lane. This decision led to a longer-developing cut and a tackle by Watts for a short gain. Making the right decisions behind the line of scrimmage depends on sight and the willingness to wait for holes. While Pollard prefers getting into open space quickly, differing of Le'Veon Bell's patient running style, his eagerness has resulted in some negative offensive plays. In contrast, Elliott excelled at creating positive runs even when it seemed unlikely.

VIDEO 2: EXPLOSIVENESS

Despite his imperfections, Pollard stands out as one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. He ranked third in breakaway plays (runs of 15 yards or more) with 17, fifth in total yards on breakaway plays (440), and third in breakaway percentage at 43.7% during the regular season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Cowboys' offense excelled at creating favorable rushing opportunities by spreading out the formation, forcing defenses to contend with five to six defenders inside the box. In this play, utilizing a double-stack formation, the Cowboys removed four defenders from the inside zone play, allowing Pollard to exploit a cutback lane and exploit the Lions' defense.

VIDEO 3: RED ZONE EFFICIENCY

Explosiveness, ability to break tackles, and scoring touchdowns are all desirable traits in fantasy football. Pollard recorded nine rushing touchdowns last season, surpassing his previous career high of four. Six of these touchdowns were scored inside the 20-yard line, ranking him 15th among all running backs. Additionally, his efficiency in the red zone was noteworthy, with only 23 red zone carries, which placed him 35th among all backs. Although his lateral agility may not match some other backs, Pollard's effectiveness in weaving through defenders becomes evident when he finds open space.

Pass-catching ability plays a significant role in a running back's value, as it elevates their ceiling. Pollard's receiving upside had been limited by Elliott's presence, but the duo saw a decline in targets in the previous season, with only 73 combined. Among running backs, Pollard ranked 17th in targets (50) and receptions (39) in 2022. To establish himself as a top-tier fantasy running back, Pollard needs an increase in targets. It is plausible that the Cowboys will return to involving their running backs more in the passing game next season.

VIDEO 4: PASS-CATCHING PROWESS

VIDEO 5: PASS-CATCHING, PART 2

Pollard's natural pass-catching skills are evident in his ability to secure catches near or away from his body. Notably, in a play against the Lions, he showcased his awareness by catching the ball despite being slightly hooked by a defender. This catch resulted in a first down and provided the Cowboys with some breathing room. With Elliott's absence from the roster (at present), Pollard should see a significant increase in his target share. Moreover, he demonstrated reliable pass protection, ranking third among running backs in Pass Protection grade from PFF. Therefore, there should be no excuses for Dallas to not utilize him in pass-catching situations.

VIDEO 6: PASS PROTECTION

VIDEO 7: PASS PROTECTION, PART 2

Another appealing aspect of watching a running back is their ability to play through contact and exploit defenses. Pollard ranked second among running backs in Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) with 3.82 yards, just behind Breece Hall at 4.13 yards. His re-acceleration after contact allows him to drive through defenders and break away once he clears them. Arm tackles are futile against Pollard, who churns through them to find open space. His proficiency in producing ten-plus yard runs, finishing sixth among running backs, serves as evidence of this skill.

VIDEO 8: BREAKING TACKLES

Pollard's agility and elusiveness are particularly entertaining to watch, as he leaves defenders grasping at thin air. Dallas actively seeks to create space for Pollard, recognizing his ability to be a dynamic runner. His quick and fluid movements, characterized by speed and angular changes, make him a challenging player to bring down. However, with Mike McCarthy taking over the offense in 2023, there is some concern about increased volume for the 26-year-old. Historically, McCarthy's running backs, with the exception of a few Eddie Lacy seasons in Green Bay, have not achieved top-five fantasy finishes. Nonetheless, Pollard possesses the talent to thrive, and McCarthy's impact remains uncertain. Starting minicamp as the clear starter bodes well for Pollard.

VIDEO 9: ANGLES

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Efficiency is Pollard's calling card, exemplified by his ranking as the only back among the top ten in runs of ten or more yards with under 200 carries. The hope is that he can maintain these efficiency numbers with an increased workload. While the Cowboys may consider adding a bigger back to handle tough yardage situations, Pollard's strengths as a pass-catching back should be embraced. It is reasonable to anticipate career highs in rushes, targets, and receptions for Pollard in 2023. Although the Cowboys hold a high opinion of Malik Davis, and they may add another running back before the season, the current situation appears favorable for Pollard. If the team maintains their current running back group, Pollard's potential for a top finish this season should not be underestimated, particularly considering his impressive plays.