Will Chris Olave Take Over in New Orleans?

Photo: USA Today Sports

Route running is the bedrock of a successful wide receiver's career in the NFL, and it's no different for Chris Olave. Drafted 11th overall in 2022, Olave's impressive rookie season proved that his success was no fluke. In 2023, he's going to finish as a top-12 receiver, and it's easy to see why.

My colleagues at Footballguys forecast a similar outcome.

Table: Wide Receiver Projections (PPR)

Despite the inconsistency in quarterback play, Olave has managed to carve out a niche for himself as the go-to receiver for New Orleans. He displayed his versatility by taking on the roles of "X," "Z," and slot receiver, handling 119 targets and gaining the trust of his team. He racked up solid fantasy production, hinting at a promising future:

• 200.2 fantasy points (PPR)
• WR24 ranking
• WR26 on a per-game basis

With quarterback Derek Carr joining New Orleans, Olave's synergy with the new signal-caller is set to thrive.

Selling Routes

Olave is quickly becoming one of the most meticulous receivers in the NFL with the way he attacks corners and leverage. The Panthers show a Cover 3 shell with a deep safety and both outside corners opening slightly to the middle of the field. Olave knows he can sell the inside route, especially with the corner in position to cover the inside. He releases with an inside stem, closes the space on the corner, and forces him to open his shoulder nearly vertically in preparation to run with Olave down the field. An inside jab step leads to Olave breaking off the corner and sending him up the field, giving Jameis Winston time to find Olave wide open at the sideline.

chris olave ranking 6th in yards per route run as a rookie with uneven quarterback play bodes very well for him this season with another year of experience and (hopefully) more consistent quarterback play pic.twitter.com/7nFsL9PsWf

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) July 19, 2023

Top Rookie WR Seasons by YPRR
+ min. 200 routes run, since 2010

1 Odell Beckham Jr, 2014 (2.75)
2 A.J. Brown, 2019 (2.67)
3 Justin Jefferson, 2020 (2.66)
4 Ja'Marr Chase, 2021 (2.51)
5 CHRIS OLAVE, 2022 (2.42)
6 Tyreek Hill, 2016 (2.28)
7 CHRISTIAN WATSON, 2022 (2.26)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 22, 2023

Chris Olave's attention to detail in his routes sets him apart as one of the most precise receivers. His ability to read defenders allows him to excel at all levels of the field. As a rookie, he ranked sixth in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), putting him in the company of some of the best rookie receivers in recent history.

The Unexpected Twist

Though not known for deep speed during his college days, Olave's sub 4.4 forty at the combine showcased his capability to win downfield. Last season, he had an impressive Average Depth of Target (ADoT) of 14.9 yards, with nearly 40% of the Saints' air yards directed toward him. Additionally, Olave's versatility was evident as he frequently moved around the field, showcasing his talent both outside and in the slot. Against San Francisco, he played the majority of the game from the slot but, on the season, played outside 66% of the time. Being able to come down in the slot and do this is an added bonus for the offense.