Rushing Matchups Week 11

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Minnesota at Denver

The Minnesota Vikings have struggled to establish a consistent ground game since trading away Dalvin Cook in the offseason. They haven't had a running back surpass 50 yards on the ground since Week 4. However, the situation is improving, with Alexander Mattison (if healthy) and Ty Chandler leading the running back depth chart. Additionally, quarterback Josh Dobbs is a dual-threat quarterback who can contribute as a rusher. Dobbs averaged 32 rushing yards per game during his time with the Cardinals and has had productive rushing performances in his first two starts with the Vikings, totaling 66 and 44 rushing yards with a touchdown in each game.

The Denver Broncos have been improving in various aspects but continue to struggle against the run. On the season, the Broncos allow 136 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the worst in the NFL, and separated by the second-closest team by 18 yards. They had a particularly rough outing in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins, allowing 355 yards, but even if you remove that game, they still rank 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Opposing lead running backs are averaging an alarming 6.1 yards per carry and 99 rushing yards per game against the Broncos. The defense lacks playmakers up front and relies heavily on special-teams types. Linebackers Alex Singleton and Josey Jewell are primarily tacklers and don't contribute much in terms of big plays. The Broncos' run defense needs a talent infusion on the defensive line and at linebacker to improve their ability to stop the run.

Washington vs NY Giants

The Washington Commanders' ground game has faced efficiency issues lately, with Brian Robinson averaging just 38 yards per game since Week 4. It's somewhat surprising that Antonio Gibson hasn't seen more opportunities in the backfield rotation. Nevertheless, Washington has a favorable matchup against the struggling New York Giants, which could provide a bounce-back opportunity. Robinson had strong showings earlier in the season against the Cardinals, Broncos, and Bills. He also receives a solid share of red-zone work with 20 touches so far.

While the Giants' run defense seemed to improve for a few weeks, they have recently regressed, allowing chunk gains and productive performances from opposing running backs. In the past two weeks, Josh Jacobs and Cowboys change-of-pace back Rico Dowdle found open space to produce on the ground, both topping 75 yards rushing. Five running backs this season have accumulated over 75 yards against this Giants defense. The Giants' struggles are often exacerbated by unfavorable game flow, allowing opponents to control the game on the ground. Despite having talent on the defensive line and linebacker Bobby Okereke enjoying a breakout year as a playmaker, the Giants' defense remains vulnerable. It is a favorable target for fantasy purposes.

Dallas at Carolina

The Dallas Cowboys have been emphasizing their passing game recently, with Dak Prescott dropping back to pass on 62% of plays over the last three games. However, when they do decide to run the ball, they continue to get efficient production from their running backs, including Tony Pollard. In 2023, their rushing attack ranks 11th in ground yards per game. They benefit from having the second-best run-blocking offensive line in the league, according to Matt Bitonti's rankings, and could potentially have three of their linemen make the All-Pro team. In Week 10, Rico Dowdle had a productive outing, accumulating 79 yards and a touchdown in a clock-killing role. The Cowboys' offensive line superiority should give them an advantage against the Carolina Panthers' front seven.

As for the Panthers, they appear to be in a rebuilding phase, and rookie quarterback Bryce Young has yet to spark the offense. Their defense has struggled, allowing six opposing running backs to rush for 75 or more yards through nine games. They rank 24th in the league in yards allowed per carry, and no team has surrendered more rushing touchdowns than the Panthers. While they have some talent on the defensive side, such as versatile tackle Derrick Brown and emerging linebacker Frankie Luvu, they still face challenges, particularly against the run. Opponents have exploited gaps, especially on the outside, to control games against the struggling Panthers. This could present an opportunity for Tony Pollard and the Cowboys' rushing attack to bounce back and have a productive outing.

Houston vs Arizona

The Texans finally got a productive ground game from a running back, and it didn't come from Dameon Pierce, who sat out with an ankle injury. Rather, it was ex-Bill Devin Singletary who turned 30 rushes into 150 yards and a red-zone touchdown. At the very least, he gave the team no reason to rush Pierce back. At most, Singletary laid claim to the lead role even when Pierce (just 3.0 yards per carry) returns. They both work behind a line that's improving rapidly, and there‘s no concern over rookie passer C.J. Stroud keeping defenses honest. If Pierce can't go in Week 11, Singletary can count on at least one more week as a workhorse against one of the league's worst defenses.

The rebuilding Cardinals still can't stop anyone on the ground. In 2023, they've allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which even bakes in some recent improvement. Even in Week 10's feel-good win, they allowed the Falcons to turn 41 attempts into 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. In fact, they've allowed seven of their last eight opponents to produce at least an 80-yard rusher. The Cardinals are far from fielding an upper-level defense, which is why this unit is stocked almost entirely with reserves and practice-squad types. They badly lack a space-eating nose tackle to keep their middling linebackers clean. The solid safety duo of Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson is helpful against the run but can only be counted on so much. With no one to occupy blockers and no real playmakers in space, this unit is always green-lighted for fantasy purposes.

Miami vs Las Vegas

The Miami ground game has cooled off from its absurd early-season heights. They now sit second in rushing, both per game and per attempt, no longer on pace to shatter league records. But this remains a dynamic unit, and in Week 11, they'll get a reprieve from a tough recent schedule of defenses. Raheem Mostert may be limited this week, so the wild card is rookie De'Von Achane, who looks poised to return from IR in some capacity. If he suits up, Achane's volume would be wildly unpredictable; he could touch the ball 15 times or twice. But if any 2023 runner can erupt on middling volume, it's Achane, whose 12.1 yards per rush have papered over his part-time role.

The Raiders are rebuilding their defense to stop the pass, first and foremost, and it shows. They've assembled an intriguing group of edge rushers and secondary, yet the run defense remains one of football's worst. Opponents are sending the league's sixth-highest rushing volume at them; it's no surprise they sit 29th in yardage allowed (28th per carry). They shut down Breece Hall (just 28 yards) and the Jets in Week 10, but that feels like a blip on the radar, given their long-term struggles against the run. Over the three prior weeks, they were gashed by three straight runners: D'Onta Foreman, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley combined to average 19 carries and 110 yards, with 3 touchdowns among them. (Even Gibbs' teammate, reserve Craig Reynolds, joined the fun with 74 yards of his own.) Overall, this unit may only be a big-bodied nose tackle from being competitive. Bilal Nichols is a stout 313-pounder in the middle, but he's easily overrun by opposing blockers.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups

Detroit vs Chicago

The fantasy world is abuzz over the Lions' ground game right now, and rightfully so. David Montgomery (84 yards per game, 4.7 per rush) looks like an upper-tier lead man, while rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (5.3) is truly electric. They come fresh off their best showing of the year, with the duo combining for 193 and 3 touchdowns against the Chargers. Neither is easy to sit right now, but those with deep RB benches must be disciplined in their expectations. The Bears' ferocious front seven has allowed virtually no one to produce here in 2023. At best, Montgomery and Gibbs project near the bottom of their spectrums.

For all their 2023 issues, the Bears shockingly have developed into one of the best run-stopping units this season. Stocked with proven run-stoppers from all over the league, this is a nearly impossible unit to run against. They've yet to allow a 75-yard rusher this season; in fact, no opponent has reached even 45 since Week 4. (It's been even longer since they've allowed a rushing touchdown.) And they haven't benefitted from a soft schedule of runners, either. That impressive stretch included shutdown performances against Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, and Alvin Kamara, who combined for just 90 yards (2.6 per attempt). The Bears put ample trust in down linemen Andrew Billings and Justin Jones, both great space-eaters inside, to dominate the point of attack. And the addition of ex-Commander Montez Sweat has already paid dividends in both phases; he's far more than just an edge rusher. No one wants to sit a Lions back right now, but expectations should be kept in check. This is a legitimately daunting matchup.

Kansas City vs Philadelphia

The Chiefs, no longer able to rely on the deep pass, have greatly diversified their offense. They're now able to control the clock (and the game) with an efficient situational ground game when it's called for. That said, it's important to note that Isaiah Pacheco tends to grind out what's blocked for him. With good-not-great speed and playmaking ability, Pacheco will be tasked with weaving his way through the Philadelphia front seven, one of the most dominant groups of the past decade. The onus is on coach Andy Reid and the offensive line to keep the hard-charging Eagles at bay. The offensive line has been great this season as Footballguys Expert Matt Bitonti has this as the fourth-best offensive line in the NFL, led by center Creed Humphrey, one of the best centers in the NFL.

The Eagles' star-studded defense continues to overwhelm opposing ground games. They've stocked up heavily on physical playmakers up front – most of them from Georgia – and it's paid off with dynamism all over, plus lots of depth behind them. The results have been noticeable: no team allows less yardage per game than their 53 to opposing running backs. Opposing linemen struggle even to create a gap in the front of Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter, and Jordan Davis. Carter is a lead candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Eagles are rotating eight players along the defensive line and are so deep that Davis plays only a quarter of the snaps. Behind them, the team has assembled a handful of proven veteran tacklers to play clean-up. Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow have bounced around the league and landed in the perfect situation for their talents: reliable tackling in the gaps. Facing all of this dynamic talent, and with game flow rarely cooperative, opponents often give up on the ground game earlier than usual. They've faced the run on just 29% of snaps, by far the league's lowest rate. All those factors add up to a prototypical “stay away” fantasy matchup.

San Francisco vs Tampa Bay

The San Francisco ground game was relatively quiet during the three-game losing streak, got back on track after the bye, and was a big factor in Week 10's blowout win. Facing a stout Jacksonville defense, Christian McCaffrey turned 16 rushes into 95 yards and likely would have put up much better numbers if needed, as the 49ers went to a conservative game plan in the second half. That said, McCaffrey hasn't turned in a great rushing performance since Week 4, as most of his value has come as a receiver. This matchup isn't an ideal one to buck that trend. He'll face the Buccaneers' potent front with top blocker Trent Williams limited by injury while right tackle Colton McKivitz is dealing with an ankle injury as well.

The Tampa Bay run defense has bounced back definitively from a down 2022 season. In 2023, they're right back among the league's elite units, giving up just 70 yards per game to opposing running backs, which is sixth in the NFL compared to 95 yards in 2022. The world saw D'Andre Swift and the Eagles run wild in their Week 3 date; since then, no back has topped 70 yards in this matchup. Shutting down the run has long been a goal of coach (and former coordinator) Todd Bowles, who leans heavily on veterans Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and others to win on the ground. Bowles' units consistently track runs in space and flow to the runner, then finish violently (often punching at the ball). The fact that this group is so dominant in the midst of perhaps Vea's worst NFL season is wildly impressive.

Denver vs Minnesota

The Denver offense is gradually finding its way on this three-game winning streak. That said, it's still not particularly explosive by air or ground. Javonte Williams has a stranglehold on the workload, taking on 80% of the rushes over the last two games, but while he has volume, the efficiency has been lacking at just 3.4 yards per carry. For many reasons, he's yet to reach 90 yards in a game this season. Williams looks healthy and spry, so some blame can be laid upon Russell Wilson and the air attack, which still isn't frightening anyone. Williams should be praised for his bounce back from injuries and his consistency, but he projects to mediocre numbers this week.

Minnesota's run defense was gashed in Week 2, allowing 224 rushing yards to Philadelphia, but since that game, there has been a change in this defense. From Week 3 onwards, this defense allows just 58 yards per game to opposing running backs, the third-best in the NFL. Adjusting for volume, the Vikings' run defense is the best in the NFL since Week 3, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. It took some time for the Vikings to replace veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks, who left in the offseason, but they've found a way, as they are led by two of the best run-stopping safeties in Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum. If there is a concern for the Vikings, it is that injuries are starting to compile for this team. Last week, they lost linebacker Jordan Hicks who was placed in IR. The team signed veteran Anthony Barr this past week but will also be relying on undrafted rookie Ivan Pace Jr and coverage linebacker Troy Dye to fill in for the lost Hicks. Since that Week 2 performance, no running back has topped 65 yards against this team, so while they will likely be tested with injuries, expect them to still be a cohesive unit that may regress a little bit but still be very good.

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Derrick Henry remains the face of the Titans and a generally consistent gainer on the ground. Still, his production has been oddly mediocre of late. The team was expected to lean hard on Henry as new quarterback Will Levis assimilates to the NFL. Yet they've handed the ball off on just 40% of Levis' snaps, 21st in the league over that span. And Henry's returns have only dwindled, from 22 rushes for 101 yards, to 17 for 75, to 11 for 24. This is a big problem going forward for the development of Levis, as Levis needs to do enough to keep defenses honest, but he needs the running game to help him create space in the passing game. Unfortunately, with the league's worst offensive line based on Footballguys expert Matt Bitonti, expect the Titans to struggle with consistency.

Aside from a few blips, the Jacksonville run defense has been dominant throughout 2023, allowing just 63 yards per game to opposing running backs, the 5th-best in the NFL this season. And they've done so against some of the league's best rushing attacks, with only two (Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson) topping 70 yards. This defense has completely shut down running backs such as Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and Najee Harris this season. The Jaguars benefit from bringing on an extra safety in rushing downs, as Andrew Wingard essentially is another linebacker who has had 13 tackles over the last two games. He joins Foyesade Oluokun, who's angling for his first All-Pro nod, and breakout Devin Lloyd. They know the Titans will ride Derrick Henry as needed and are more prepared than ever to handle it.