A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following four running back candidates due for a rebound in 2023.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. is good for a rebound in 2023. In 2023, he had 13 carries inside the 5-yard line, which ranked 7th in the league, but only managed 3 rushing touchdowns. Much of the criticism of Etienne has been he is not a running back suited for such a role, but that is not actually true. Etienne broke a tackle once every 3.9 carries, which ranked 7th among running backs in 2023, and his 3.1 yards after contact per carry ranked 18th among 61 qualifying running backs. The team drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round, but Etienne should get the lead role and have a significantly higher ceiling than he showed in 2022. Jacksonville's offense is ascending, and Etienne should benefit in 2023.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris had a down 2022 season, and after the season, it was revealed he had a bad plantar fascia injury that hampered him to start the season. Now, Harris returns to the offense healthy in 2023, in an offense that should be better across the board. This will be the second season with Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback, which is a season when quarterbacks typically take a jump forward. Harris led the league in running back receptions in his rookie season but has never put his rushing and receiving profiles together in a season. Harris can pair a rushing and receiving breakout together in a way that led Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette to elite performances when the market was disappointed by their career arcs as first-round picks.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
The future of the Buffalo Bills backfield has been a source of hot debate this offseason. Based on the usage in the backfield, it is James Cook who has the best case for a running back breakout. Cook averaged 1.95 yards per route run in college and has an elite production profile. Cook played behind incumbent starter Devin Singletary in his rookie season and only ran 7.9 routes per game despite Singletary running 23.3 routes per game. Cook's inability to overcome Singletary is a concern, but Singletary is gone, and Cook should get a clear opportunity in the passing game.
At face value, the Buffalo offense does not seem like a fertile place for receiving production for running backs. In his Buffalo career, Singletary averaged 2.4 receptions and 15.9 receiving yards per game. His career-best number in receiving yards was 280. Overall, the Buffalo offense ranked 19th in running back receiving yards per dropback (0.81) but ranked 10th in running back routes per dropback, a sign that Buffalo's offense did not get what they designed for the running backs in the passing game. The stats are a clear indictment of Singletary's ability as a pass catcher. In his career, Singletary is a 13th percentile performer in yards per route run (0.72) and a 14th percentile performer in targets per route run (13.6%). This is notable because, through his time in Buffalo, his teammates outproduced Singletary. For example, Cook was targeted on 26.2% of his routes, while Hines was targeted on 27.2% of his routes in 2022. Singletary was targeted on 13% of his routes in 2021 when Zack Moss (17.6%) and Matt Breida (17.5%) were targeted more frequently despite not having the same receiving profile as Cook. Cook can step into a top-three role in one of the league's best passing games in 2023 and is getting no respect in the market.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins has had a turbulent career. A torn ACL in 2021 after a successful rookie season set his career back. Then he needed a second surgery during the 2022 season before returning in week 13 with back-to-back 100-yard performances. Dobbins had a better-receiving profile at Ohio State than he has displayed in his time with the Ravens as a bottom ten percentile in yards per route run and percentage of the routes he has been targeted on in his career. The true rebound for Dobbins could come from a change in the running game under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. In 2022, Dobbins faced 8-man boxes on 35.9% of his carries, the fourth highest among qualifying running backs. A new offense could create more running space and potentially resurrect Dobbins's receiving profile.