A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following three running back candidates due for regression in 2023.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard scored 9 rushing touchdowns in 2022 which was well above his expectation based on his usage for a running back who ranked 35th in the league in red zone rushing attempts. Pollard’s production came on long touchdowns, which are difficult to repeat. Two of Pollard’s touchdowns were on carries of 50 or more yards. Overall, of the 353 rushing touchdowns scored by running backs in 2022, 15 were more than 50 yards or more, so do not expect him to repeat multiple long touchdowns in 2023. Pollard has high expectations in 2023 as he is expected to take over the full-time role of Ezekiel Elliott, who was cut. Pollard has never handled a full-time workload but should have an opportunity for a bigger volume role if his touchdown efficiency should take a step back.