A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following three running back candidates due for regression in 2023.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard scored 9 rushing touchdowns in 2022 which was well above his expectation based on his usage for a running back who ranked 35th in the league in red zone rushing attempts. Pollard’s production came on long touchdowns, which are difficult to repeat. Two of Pollard’s touchdowns were on carries of 50 or more yards. Overall, of the 353 rushing touchdowns scored by running backs in 2022, 15 were more than 50 yards or more, so do not expect him to repeat multiple long touchdowns in 2023. Pollard has high expectations in 2023 as he is expected to take over the full-time role of Ezekiel Elliott, who was cut. Pollard has never handled a full-time workload but should have an opportunity for a bigger volume role if his touchdown efficiency should take a step back.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler is entering a contract year after extension talks earlier this offseason fell apart. Ekeler was the RB1 after finishing as the RB2 in 2021, making him an elite option. Ekeler has a high floor, but achieving the same level of ceiling in 2023 may be difficult. Since 2020, in games that Keenan Allen played, Ekeler has averaged 6.2 targets per game, 5.1 receptions per game, and 42.8 receiving yards per game. When Allen is out, Ekeler has averaged 7.9 targets per game, 6.2 receptions per game, and 36.1 receiving yards per game. While the volume is higher in games that Allen is out, he has been lower in yardage, which is not something you would expect to continue. Even if there are Allen injury concerns at his age (31), the team added Quentin Johnston, which should shrink the opportunity for Ekeler. Additionally, the team is going through a change in offensive coordinators. In 2022, under former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, the Chargers ranked second in plays per game, second in dropbacks per game, and second in designed pass rate in 2022, so the places where Ekeler succeeds have no place to go but down under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Ekeler also had 51 of the 65 running back carries in the red zone, and 11 of the 15 carries inside the five-yard line. This was all in a season where Justin Herbert rarely ran the ball in the red zone and ranked 30th in the red zone quarterback rush rate. The change in offensive coaching staff, Herbert’s usage, and personnel improvements have the potential to change several key efficiencies for Ekeler that will make a repeat of last year’s performance very difficult.
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
Jamaal Williams had an excellent 2022 season, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. 16 of Williams’s league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns were on red zone carries. Williams led the league in red zone carries (59) and carries inside the five-yard line (33). Overall, 14 of Williams’s 17 carries came on carries inside the 5-yard line. In fact, his rushing touchdowns (17) outnumbered his receiving targets (16). Williams signed with New Orleans in free agency and will join a red zone offense that was limited in volume. For example, the Saints ranked 30th on plays inside the 10-yard line (59). Alvin Kamara (25 red zone carries) and Taysom Hill (18 red zone carries) each had roles in the red zone, with Hill scoring 6 red zone touchdowns. Overall, the New Orleans offense is a step down in volume and effectiveness than Detroit, while the situation is more crowded for Williams to repeat his 2022 production.