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The period between free agency and the NFL draft is one of the quietest in the NFL calendar. Most free agent signings happen quickly, and teams wait until after the draft to take advantage of the compensatory pick formula. The formula rewards net losses, and the NFL has moved the date up for non-qualified signings to the Monday following the draft. That allows an opportunity to identify draft needs and underrated dynasty buy low players to target before the draft grants clarity. This series will look division by division at where teams stand before the draft.
Philadelphia Eagles: Prepare for a boring fantasy draft.
The Eagles have landed as a trendy Bijan Robinson landing spot with the tenth pick in the draft. But the roster is set to see significant escalation from Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert. The cap hit between the three is just over $19 million in 2023. In 2024 Brown and Goedert alone are slated for $47 million. The Eagles have almost exclusively used early draft capital on the premium positions of quarterback, wide receiver, tackle, pass rusher, and cornerback. The value at the tenth pick sits in the latter two positions.
The team could use a later-round pick on a running back, as Rashaad Penny's contract is risk-free. That said, Penny slots as a Miles Sanders replacement, the return of Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and coach Nick Sirianni raving about Trey Sermon, that could be it. Running back was not a high-value position in this offense in 2022; the team finished dead last with just 61 running back receiving targets. For context, the Chargers led the league with almost three times as many at 178. This offense is not the one you want drafting a pass-catching specialist.
The team could look to add wide receiver later, but 69% of their targets went to Brown, Goedert, and Devonta Smith. As fun as it is to project meaningful rookies into this lineup, the team built its offensive juggernaut status off already possessing top-end talent. Expect the team to use premium picks to continue to build depth on the defense.
Dallas Cowboys: Bellcow Tony Pollard will have company.
Mike McCarthy has been explicit with the team's plans. The Cowboys are going to establish the run. A first glance, this is excellent news for franchise-tagged Pollard, with Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, and Ronald Jones II the only other backs on the roster. The belief around the organization has positioned Pollard as a complementary back who needs his touches controlled, and the team needs to invest long-term in a cost-controlled option. A power compliment like Zach Charbonnet would be ideal, but consider Jerry Jones's affinity for a splash move with the University of Texas's Bijan Robinson in the draft. Our Adam Wilde broke down potential landing spots for Robinson, and the Cowboys were the top option.
Pollard will be a focal point but could find himself in a role similar to the one Aaron Jones occupied in the past McCarthy offenses. Members of the "Free Aaron Jones" movement will remember the frustration involved. If the Cowboys do not address the position meaningfully, Pollard is a screaming value and should be considered a top 3 back for 2023.
The Cowboys' landing of Brandin Cooks has been one of the more exciting fantasy developments. The Cowboys lose 163 targets out of the passing game with Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown leaving. Brandin Cooks will see a large chunk, and the team still believes in Michael Gallup. Still, the departure of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and McCarthy's stone-aged offensive view could cap every passing option outside of CeeDee Lamb, including Dak Prescott. Tight end has been a popular mock draft target for the Cowboys. Still, five seasons after Jermichael Finley's career ended early via injury, the Packers' Richard Rodgers's 85 targets in 2015 was the only season where McCarthy targeted the tight end more than 53 times. Peyton Hendershot and Jake Ferguson are fine for what McCarthy's scheme needs.
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