The 2024 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the wide receivers potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status.
Last year, and in general with the biggest names in free agency, most returned to their incumbent team. The tenent applies to Tier 1 wide receivers. Few Tier 1 and many times Tier 2 receivers hit true free agency. With team changes of high-level players, expect more tag-and-trade outcomes for a new locale.
TIER 1
All four receivers offer WR1 upside to funnel a passing game through them. Higgins is easily the youngest and most likely to break the bank with a significant longer-term contract. The annual reminder is that few big-name free agents actually hit true free agency with the weaponized franchise tag available for teams with tag and trade possibilities at a minimum, even if the end result is a team change. With Higgins' dynasty value and upside, the contrast between being the WR2 on a strong passing game (Cincinnati) versus the WR1 with a lesser quarterback is one to know the historical probabilities and averages. The average WR2 for a Tier 1 (top eight) quarterback pairing is WR35. The average WR1 for a Tier 4 (bottom eight) quarterback is WR34. The top-24 finish probabilities for the same two situations are 38% and 29%, respectively. The top-12 finish probabilities are 15% and 9%. In short, Higgins would be better off fantasy-wise staying in Cincinnati and locked in behind JaMarr Chase than with a weak quarterback and the WR1 elsewhere.
TIER 2
Odell Beckham is quietly having a decent season with 1.92 yards per route run and 21% targets per route run. Also, Beckham is one of the few receivers active in the NFL with more than a few seasons under his belt and sporting >2.00 career yards per route run, an elite figure. Beckham can still help an NFL passing game in 2024. Bourne and Brown are solid options but more WR2 types than being hopeful for WR1 results for an NFL passing game. Gabriel Davis has lagged from his promising 2021 season the past two years despite massive route figures and being paired with Josh Allen. With a high-end outcome of a big contract as a possibility back then, Davis is likely looking at a speculation deal with his 1.27 career yards per route run. Rashid Shaheed is the biggest wildcard on the list with his 2.04 career yards per route run and electric speed. Shaheed has averaged 17.4 and 16.9 yards per catch over two seasons and offers preeminent deep-threat ability.
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BEST OF THE REST
Generally a rag-tag group, all of these names have produced in the NFL but are removed from their prime windows of production. While still capable of WR2 moments, they are WR3 types at heart for an NFL offense, and some are likely to settle even lower on a pecking order in the offseason.
POTENTIAL CUTS-RESTRUCTURES
Amari Cooper's $23 million cap hit next year has only half as a dead cap charge if the Browns want to move on from the then 30-year-old receiver. Keenan Allen's ratio is even more of a threat to be restructured or cut with $34 million in cap hit and only $11 million in dead cap. Another Los Angeles wide receiver, Mike Williams, is on the contract hot seat in 2024. A sneaky 29-year-old, Williams has mired through high points and injuries in his career, and his ballooning $32 million cap hit next season can save $20 million being a cap cut. At a minimum, Williams is set to be a sharp restructuring candidate.
Diontae Johnson's cap hit is palatable at $15 million, but most of it can be saved ($10 million) if released. Johnson is still a productive player at a good cost, so Johnson is one of the less likely receivers to switch teams. Hunter Renfrow's contract was structured so that 2024 was a natural out, with more than half of his cap hit to be saved if they moved on from his $13 million in the offseason. Allen Robinson is included in this list as more of a bookkeeping venture than pointing to future fantasy relevance. His $11 million cap hit next year is a non-starter, and Pittsburgh has void years in place to move on.
POTENTIAL INCUMBENT BENEFACTORS
- Quentin Johnston: A wildcard considering his slow start, but Keenan Allen and Mike Williams' statuses are both up in the air in the offseason. How Johnston finishes the season will influence his breakout appeal in 2024.
- Demario Douglas: One of the surprise rookie stories of 2023 as a Day 3 receiver on a poor New England passing game, but surging with no Kendrick Bourne of late. 1.98 yards per route run and 24% target per route run are outstanding rookie figures, even for a Round 1 selection.
- Rashod Bateman: An up-and-down journey for Bateman with a >2.00 yards per route run season under his belt but miring in other seasons, including 1.04 in 2023. The selection of Zay Flowers hurts, as well as Mark Andrews being an alpha profile for the Baltimore passing game. Round 1 receivers like Bateman, who have flashed, generally get plenty of leash.
- A.T. Perry: Yet to see much opportunity, but Michael Thomas on injured reserve will help Perry down the stretch. The early Day 3 rookie has size and movement appeal, especially if Rashid Shaheed leaves in free agency.
- Trey Palmer: Palmer is already playing a ton of snaps this season. Mike Evans leaving would aid Palmer's breakout chances in 2024.
- Josh Downs: Downs fits the breakout formula for 2024, especially if Michael Pittman is gone and there is a lesser replacement.
- Jameson Williams: A slow-burning Round 1 pedigree with suspension and injury thus far, Williams is on the bust track. Ideally, Detroit runs through Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Williams in 2024, but that is still plenty of mouths to feed.
- Cedric Tillman: Amari Cooper gone would aid Tillman the most in Cleveland as both primarily play on the outside. Tillman had a Michael Thomas-like prospect profile in the best case, should the opportunity find him in 2024.
Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.