IDP Roundtable: Free Agency Recap

Photo: USA Today Sports

The 2023 NFL Draft is just over two weeks away, and the focus of most fantasy analysts and managers has turned toward the festivities in Kansas City. But before we turn all our attention to the 88th rookie draft on April 27, we first need to close the book on another critical facet of the offseason.

Free agency.

Mind you; this doesn’t mean that free agency has ended. For now, it has slowed to a trickle, but there will be another wave of signings when teams look to fill holes after the draft. And there will still be signings well into the summer once OTAs and camps get underway and injuries start piling up.

However, before there was a trickle, there was a flood. We saw a number of big names at defensive tackle land massive deals to either stay put or move on to a new home. There’s a new name among the top-five highest-paid off-ball linebackers. Quite a few IDP-relevant saw their fantasy value affected substantially by a change in scenery or circumstance. For some, it was for the better. For others, not so much.

With all that in mind, the IDP Staff here at Footballguys has gathered to put a bow on free agency in 2023 by highlighting some players fantasy managers should be looking to target, some others who may be best served to avoid, and some guys we just aren’t sure about yet.

After about a month of free agency across the NFL, the IDP landscape has been altered in a big way. In the interest of starting this Roundtable on a positive note, plant a flag for a player who received a big boost in fantasy value from a change in scenery.

Kyle Bellefeuil: If we're talking big boost via a new landing spot, Cole Holcomb going to the Steelers is one of my favorites. Holcomb (foot) was limited to seven games in 2022, causing him to be slept on a bit among the free-agent linebacker options. However, let's not forget about Holcomb's impressive 2021 season, where he posted 142 tackles (83 solos) and a 13.9% tackle rate. Holcomb was well on his way to another stellar season last year, posting 69 tackles (37 solos) and a 15.5% tackle rate before his unfortunate injury. The Devin Bush and Myles Jack experience didn't work out for Pittsburgh, as both ended up as merely situational players. The hope is Pittsburgh has found its new defensive anchor in the middle, deploying Holcomb as a full-time player as he was prior in Washington. With a full bill of health and a potential full-time gig, Holcomb could be in the mix for a top-12 finish.

Tripp Brebner: The Texans featured two top-ten fantasy defensive backs in 2022 largely because their front seven was bad. Jalen Pitre and Jonathan Owens finished first and second at the position in solo tackles in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Texans’ new head coach, DeMeco Ryans, coordinated a stout defense in San Francisco, but the only 49ers he’s able to bring with him are Jimmie Ward and Hassan Ridgeway. Ward, who will replace Owens in the back end, is a solid run defender. The rookie Pitre, meanwhile, missed 29 tackles in run defense, per PFF.

While Pitre is considered a DB1 by fantasy gamers in early drafts, Ward is basically free. The unrestricted free agent could finish ahead of Pitre on the fantasy leaderboard in January 2024.

Gary Davenport: Bobby Okereke is an obvious call here—he tallied over 150 total tackles last year with the Indianapolis Colts despite losing some subpackage snaps at times, and now he joins a New York Giants team that had a glaring hole at inside linebacker. Okereke will undoubtedly be Big Blue’s No. 1 option inside, and given his per-snap productivity the past couple of years, a top-10 IDP finish in an every-down role is well within reach.

If you want to peel bad another layer or two from the sweet onion that is IDP, David Long is a player who could represent an excellent value pick after he signed a two-year, $11 million contract with the Miami Dolphins. We have seen Long be a productive IDP option in the past—he ranked inside the top 20 among linebackers in fantasy points per game. He’s also easily the Dolphins' best coverage linebacker. Durability has admittedly been an issue with the 26-year-old, but if Long can stay healthy, he’s an excellent bet to out-perform his asking price.

Joseph Haggan: Eric Kendricks to the Chargers is a terrific landing spot. The Chargers have largely been a void at linebacker for years now. 2022 actually provided terrific IDP numbers from the position with Drue Tranquill. He posted 146 tackles and five sacks in 2022. No offense to Tranquill, but Kendricks has been the far superior linebacker throughout his career. What Kendricks adds is some stability to the linebacker for the Chargers. He also adds upside. Over the past two seasons in Minnesota, Kendricks posted 280 tackles, six sacks, and two interceptions. Posting 140-plus should not be an issue for Kendricks.

Matt Montgomery: Tremaine Edmunds going from Buffalo to Chicago is a big deal. We have a track record of successful IDP fantasy linebackers on the Chicago defense, most recently in Jack Sanborn. Now we have a four-year window of stability at inside linebacker in Edmunds, who was seemingly fizzling out on the Bills defense. He’s 24 years old and has been given a new beginning on a team that leans heavily into a defensive identity and has ponied up $72 million for his services. Edmunds has severely increased his value and could be a top-five dynasty linebacker for the next few years minimally.

For some individual defensive players, it wasn’t a new home that increased their fantasy value in 2023—it was new circumstances, whether that meant a new deal with their old team, player departures around them, or even a homecoming. What player wearing the same helmet as last year (or the year before) is about to hit the statistical jackpot for fantasy managers?

Bellefeuil: Ernest Jones comes to mind here as a player with the potential to take a big leap in year three. Bobby Wagner is out of the picture in Los Angeles, leaving for Seattle in free agency. Wagner leaves behind a full-time gig (99% snap share) and a beautiful 1,080 vacated snaps to be had. Currently, Jones is by far the most talented linebacker on the Rams roster and should be the direct beneficiary of Wagner's departure. Jones was more involved in his second season as a Ram, holding a 66% snap share (723 snaps) and compiling 114 tackles (66 solos) in 2022. With an increase in snap volume, Jones' arrow is pointing up for the 2023 season.

Brebner: Several early picks from the 2022 NFL draft stand to gain due to outgoing free agents, but few are talking about first-rounder Daxton Hill. He’ll be joined at safety by Nick Scott, with whom he’ll work interchangeably in the Bengals’ defensive backfield.

Neither is likely to pile up tackles the way outgoing safety Jessie Bates did a few years ago when the defense was terrible. In 2022, the Bengals finished ninth in the NFL in forcing offensive turnovers per drive, according to Pro Football Reference.

Daxton Hill’s prospect profile indicates cornerback-caliber coverage skills. He broke up eight passes in his final season at Michigan. He was also successful in attacking the line of scrimmage from an overhang alignment and making disruptive plays (4.5 tackles for loss).

As strong safeties’ time in the box declines league-wide, I’m increasingly interested in the potential for big plays to fuel fantasy production at safety.

Davenport: Bellefeuil is spot-on in singling out Jones as a young linebacker who could see a huge boost in IDP value in 2023—with Wagner back in Seattle. Jones will slide into a role that has produced big seasons from the likes of Wagner and Cory Littleton in recent years. Better yet, given the Rams' relative shortage of early-round draft capital, the odds the team uses a Day 2 pick on another linebacker aren’t especially good.

But there isn’t an IDP in all of the NFL on the cusp of a bigger jump in value relative to 2022 than second-year pro Nakobe Dean of the Philadelphia Eagles. The No. 1 off-ball linebacker prospect on more than a few draft boards last year, durability concerns caused Dean to slide into the third round. Then the former Georgia standout barely played as a rookie, logging just 34 snaps. Now, however, both of Philly’s three-down linebackers from last season (T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White) are gone. And while the Eagles added a veteran in Nicholas Morrow, Dean appears destined for an exponentially larger role in his second season. If you believe in Dean’s talent, then 2023 should be his coming-out party.

Haggan: Jamin Davis is a player who gives me some excitement. Cole Holcomb is gone and was replaced by Cody Barton. Barton had issues holding a starting role in Seattle despite being in one of the weakest linebacker groups outside of Jordyn Brooks. This is Davis' unit now. Davis had a mild 2022, posting 104 tackles, but showed some upside with three sacks. His missed tackle rate dropped from 12.6% to an unbelievable 2.8%, all while upping his snap percentage from 56% to 85%. That is an unbelievable improvement, and the Commanders did not do much to upgrade the position around him. Davis should take a nice leap for 2023.

Montgomery: Don’t overthink this one; it’s Bobby Wagner. Wagner was a perennial stud in IDP as a Seahawks linebacker, and now, he’s reunited with a defensive head coach in Pete Carroll. He also has a big opportunity to take meaningful snaps early in the season while fellow inside linebacker stud Jordyn Brooks recovers from injury. Another great thing about this move is the Seahawks defense’s ability to give us two linebackers that are credible starters, dating back to the days of Wagner and K.J. Wright. This is a slam dunk move for those looking in redraft, but I like this for dynasty purposes too. I would be surprised if Wagner didn’t finish his career here, even with the current one-year deal. Wagner should be acquired in any league you can get him.