It's only the first week of May, so while many dynasty rookie (and some startup) drafts have already begun, we're a long way from the heart of fantasy draft season in redraft formats. There's good reason for that--a tremendous amount will change between now and Week 1, and rookie minicamps are only just now getting underway across the NFL.
There are still a number of veteran free agents who remain unsigned who could have a fantasy impact in 2025, either directly or indirectly. Innumerable position battles remain unresolved. As much as we hate them, injuries will shake up a few depth charts. What we think we know now and what we think we know in August will be two very different things.
Both will be wrong in many cases, but whatcha gonna do?
Well, this writer doesn't need goofy crap like flags and data to make definitive declarations. No sir--plenty of flags have been planted without the benefit of knowledge and stuff. And if it's good enough for Warren G. Harding, it's good enough for this guy--even if his call that Toledo Maroons halfback Gus King would lead his position in fantasy points in 1922 was just way off.
So, in that spirit, it's time to make with some ridiculously early fantasy predictions for the 2025 season. Every one of these calls is guaranteed to be 100 percent accurate--except for the ones that are not.
RELATED: See Ridiculously Early IDP Predictions here.
Jayden Daniels Will Lead All Quarterbacks in Fantasy Points
Daniels was a revelation last season--the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for over 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns, rushed for almost 900 yards and six more scores, and finished the season fifth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. While speaking to reporters, Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said that it didn't take long for opponents to figure out that Daniels was a problem.
"When you play him, you realize how unstoppable he is with the four downs and having the ability to always have four downs because he's so special that way," Morris said. "His arm talent, his speed, his decision-making, his toughness, the high-level competitor, he's all of those things. You've got to figure out how to get him on the ground. He's a hard tackle for anybody, so you got to find ways to cut off angles. You've got to study those things. He's certainly somebody that you got to certainly put some effort and concentration into it."
The Commanders went all-in on improving around Daniels in the offseason, swinging a pair of big-time trades for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. All the ingredients are there for Daniels to have an even better second season, and when the dust settles in the 2025 campaign, it will be Daniels who reigns supreme among quarterbacks.
Justin Fields Will Finish With More Fantasy Points Than Patrick Mahomes II
The 2024 season had to be frustrating for Fields, who was benched after six starts in Pittsburgh for Russell Wilson. Now, however, Fields is in the Big Apple, attempting to make long-suffering Jets fans forget the Aaron Rodgers fiasco. The Jets have left no doubt that Fields is their starter under center, and head coach Aaron Glenn told reporters the offseason focus for Gang Green has been putting Fields in a position to succeed.
"Listen, we want to surround Justin with good skill players, along with a good offensive line," Glenn said. "So any time you can do that within any offense, with any quarterback, man, that's an A-plus. So that's the plan, it's always been the plan, and that's something that we've talked about before. Let him be a quarterback and surround him with good players."
Last year in Pittsburgh, Fields was sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points over his six starts, averaging just under 19 fantasy points per game. New York isn't exactly loaded with passing-game talent, but it's no worse than the situation was in Pittsburgh a year ago. Meanwhile, Mahomes was a so-so 11th in points at his position in 2024, and while he may be the gold standard at quarterback in the NFL, it's Fields who is the more valuable (and less expensive) fantasy asset.
Saquon Barkley's Fantasy Production Will Drop by Over 25 Percent
It's not especially difficult to see why Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley will be the first overall pick in quite a few fantasy drafts this summer--the 28-year-old became the NFL's ninth 2,000-yard rusher last year and led his position in points per game in both PPR and standard scoring leagues. However, there are fantasy pundits like Pat Fitzmaurice of Fantasy Pros already sounding the warning alarm that Barkley is overvalued this year.
"Why should we worry about Saquon going belly-up? He's a (warning: tired fantasy football cliche ahead) "generational talent" playing in the most RB-friendly offense imaginable," he said. "Well, it's more than a little concerning that Saquon touched the ball 482 times last season if you include the Eagles' four playoff games. That's a jaw-dropping workload. Saquon's previous single-season high in touches was 352. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders once wrote about the "Curse of 370″ — a fate that doomed nearly all of the RBs who had accumulated 370 or more carries to substantial regression the following season. Saquon is a 28-year-old back who tore his ACL in 2020 and has had multiple ankle injuries."
I'm going to revisit "The Curse of 370" soon, but long story short, the data for backs who top 370 touches in a given season isn't much better than for those who log 370 carries—it's less a matter of whether Barkley will regress than by how much. The average drop-off for the first eight 2,000-yard rushers the following season also happens to be just over 1,000 yards. Um, ouch.
Kaleb Johnson Will be a Top-15 Fantasy Running Back
The Pittsburgh Steelers entered the 2025 draft with a glaring need at running back after the departure of Najee Harris—a need the team filled by selecting Iowa's Kaleb Johnson in Round 3. Johnson is an excellent fit in Arthur Smith's zone-running scheme, and Bucky Brooks of NFL.com believes that could pave the way to a big Year 1 for the bruiser.
"The seamless transition from Iowa's zone-based system to Pittsburgh's downhill rushing attack could help Johnson hit the ground running in the pros," Brooks wrote. As a big back (6-foot-1, 224 pounds) with straight-line speed and a smooth running style, he patiently surveys the defense from behind the line until he spots a crack at the point of attack. With the Steelers' fielding a massive offensive line specializing in bulldozing defenders off the ball, Johnson could immediately post a 1,000-yard season as the team's new RB1."
Assuming that Aaron Rodgers gets the green light from Rajneesh's ghost to sign with the Steelers, Johnson cracking the top-15 in PPR points really isn't a stretch. Najee Harris did so twice in four years with the Steelers (including a top-five rookie year), and as Johnson's first season progresses, Pittsburgh will realize that he's a true three-down talent and they got a bargain in the draft.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Will Be a Fantasy WR1 in 2025
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the NFL on a tidal wave of hype--hype left mostly unfulfilled by a 2024 season in which the former Ohio State star failed to hit 900 receiving yards and posted a dismal catch rate of 53.4 percent. But while addressing the media, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said he expects some jaws to hit the floor where Harrison is concerned in Year 2.
"The guy's a ready-made pro," Gannon said. "He does all the right things. He was here the whole offseason. He skipped out one week, he went and trained with a bunch of different receivers, but he was here the whole offseason. I think he added a little bit of muscle mass. He looks a little bit bigger. All his numbers, his metrics are all better than when we got him. I'm not gonna speak truth into the universe, but just wait until this guy plays this year."
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has been similarly effusive in his praise of Harrison this offseason, and the talent that so many raved about a year ago didn't evaporate. Harrison was overvalued in 2024 by fantasy drafters who now expect every highly drafted rookie to be the next Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase. Many of the same folks who overhyped Harrison last year will fade in 2025 after his disappointing rookie year—and that's going to mean value for those who accept the invitation to his coming-out party.
Calvin Ridley Will Be a Top-20 Fantasy Receiver in PPR Points
After a 2024 season best forgotten in Nashville, there's a new sheriff in town--Tennessee used the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to select the player the team hopes will be their franchise quarterback of the future in Miami's Cam Ward. Per ESPN's Turron Davenport, Titans head coach Brian Callahan said Ward's own talent wasn't the sole reason the team drafted him. It's also his ability to get the best from the players around him.
"It's the leadership ability and the way he's able to make those around him better," Callahan said. "There are a lot of guys that can play the position, but the guys that transcend have a unique ability to connect with their teammates and then raise the level of everyone around him. I think that's what he has shown at every stop he's been and hopefully that continues here."
Yes, the Titans added veteran wideout Tyler Lockett and rookie Elic Ayomanor. But Ridley has a clear path to being Ward's No. 1 target in the passing game. Even with a dumpster fire at quarterback in Tennessee last year, Ridley posted his third 1,000-yard season in four years. With improved play under center, Ridley will sail well into WR2 territory, especially with the Titans playing from behind more weeks than not.
Colston Loveland Will Be the Third Straight Rookie Fantasy TE1 Overall
It has been abundantly clear to anyone with eyes that the focus of the offseason for new Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson has been improving the offense around young quarterback Caleb Williams. That focus continued right into the NFL draft, and as one league executive told Mike Sando of the Athletic, the selection of Michigan tight end Colston Loveland at No. 10 overall may prove to be the biggest addition of them all.
"Loveland is going to catch a million balls," the executive said. "He will be better than (Sam) LaPorta. He is such a good receiver, and he's bigger — two inches taller and another 10 pounds. They will have an 11-personnel package with (Luther) Burden in the slot and the 12 package when Burden is off the field with Loveland and (Cole) Kmet on the field. They are set up pretty well."
Johnson was the offensive coordinator for the Lions in 2023, when LaPorta's 235.3 PPR points were good for the top spot at his position. Projecting Loveland to out-point the likes of Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders and Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals is a tall ask, but frankly, once you get past that duo, the waters at tight end muddy quickly.
Besides, what's the fun of planting flags if you don't reach at least once?
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPGodfather.
