Should You Avoid Cody Barton?

Here is more of this ongoing series:

Should You Avoid Demario Davis in 2023?
Should You Avoid Drue Tranquill in 2023?
Should You Avoid T.J. Edwards in 2023?
Should You Avoid Patrick Queen in 2023?
Should You Avoid Micah Parsons in 2023?

Fantasy football is very much a timing game. Whether it is a late-season waiver wire steal or a draft-day gift falling to you in the last round. Maybe a player does well in camp and secures a starting job we didn’t know was up for grabs. Or maybe, a phenomenal linebacker leaves, and there’s a massive opening for production. Sometimes things just work out for the best. You never prepare for these moments. Preparing for something to miraculously happen isn’t exactly a plan. It is dumb luck, but sometimes, these situations win leagues. It is much easier to expect a decline than to project an increase in production. Last season we knew that the Seattle Seahawks had an opening in a linebacker unit that was easily going to score points. Phenom Jordyn Brooks was a no-doubt yes for production, and whoever manned the opposite side would score similarly, if not more, some weeks. Enter perennial special teamer Cody Barton. There was a lot to like about his first-year performance, but we must remain in the present, not the past. Was Cody Barton just a moment in time? I’m here to tamper expectations of the new linebacker in Washington this season.

What We Saw Last Season

Barton did what was expected of him last season. Whether it was Bobby Wagner’s shoes or picking up the secondary role where Jordyn Brooks left off, the expectations were clear and high of Barton. While he was a relative unknown in IDP fantasy football prior to his starting role, many managers jumped on the bandwagon and watched to see if he would grab the brass ring. In his first year as a credible starter, he achieved a career-high in all defensive categories other than fumbles forced and recovered. Tackles, sacks, INTs, and defended passes all took a jump, and Barton became an IDP darling. The former third-round pick had arrived, and all seemed well until his inevitable departure to uncharted waters. The Commanders also have a huge gap to fill since losing IDP legend Cole Holcomb to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their belief is that they have acquired Holcomb 2.0. I am here to pump the brakes a little on that designation.

Where Barton Is Going to Play

It’s no secret that the linebacker position for the Commanders is suspect at best. Fantasy managers have been waiting for the moment former first-rounder Jamin Davis ascends the throne, and this season, he will be the unquestioned LB1. But what does that mean for the others? Barton slots in currently as the middle linebacker, which I believe is an advantage over Davis, but this will be Barton's first year in a new system run by defensive-minded head coach Ron Rivera. He goes from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which is not only a personnel change but a philosophically different approach for defending teams. This 4-3 is almost similar to a 4-2-5, meaning the linebacker position is limited to two players, and a hybrid safety plays a more in-the-box role eliminating the need for additional linebackers. This isn’t just a plug-and-play change for an NFL player, especially one that is an outsider competing for a spot in the pecking order. He will get the first crack at success alongside Davis, but with a struggling head coach and new owner in the organization, there may not be much time for growth. If he is going to stick, he will need to produce early and often because this team is primed for a blowup of epic proportions to rebrand what has unfortunately become a laughable franchise.

Fantasy Implications

With all this context, should we expect Barton to be a top contributor in IDP in 2023? Short answer, no. He’s a low-end LB2 or high-end LB3 in his first year in Washington. The expectations need to be a bit lower than last season’s numbers showed us. He was familiar with the coach, scheme, and team in Seattle, so the progression of his stats was to be expected when given an opportunity. Here, he is a new player in a new scheme with stout competition at the position. He needs to be the second Commanders linebacker off the board behind Davis. Davis has the unique athleticism that Barton lacks, and as mentioned, this defense has a hybrid safety that plays an integral part to the success of the defense, which in fantasy terms means takes away linebacker stats! Barton is not only fighting players at his position but more athletic DBs who are tasked to take on additional roles as run stoppers as well as coverage disguises. In Dynasty, he needs to be a sell now. He has the stats to provide managers with a decent price point, but we are already seeing a decline in his value based on ADP in redraft, so if you can, move him now. Redraft his ADP is about where it needs to be, but I believe he is poison and needs to be avoided. Don’t get caught up in what we saw in Seattle. That was then, this is now.

Conclusion

Cody Barton had his first fantasy-relevant season in 2022, and because of this, he will be overvalued. Whether you’re a fan of dynasty leagues or your local redraft, he isn’t a player you should roster this season. He is learning a complex defensive scheme from a coach who is on the hot seat. Factor this in with the ownership change in Washington, and we have the recipe for a letdown.

Until the volatility of this organization changes and the results we see from Barton are tangible, managers are better off waiting late for Barton or looking elsewhere for a gem player. The reality is that there are more unknowns than knowns with regard to Cody Barton, and you don’t win leagues with unknowns. The only asset in that defense to have is Jamin Davis or a discounted Chase Young (free advice for those who have been reading). Cody Barton is a fade, so let someone else deal with the ups and downs we will see him go through.

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