Should You Fade T.J. Edwards in 2023?

It is a tale as old as time. The unwavering underdog in Philadelphia consistently improves his craft and ultimately shines amongst the greats in his respective sport. Whether you’re a fan of the Rocky series or the Philadelphia Eagles, this story applied. Linebacker T.J. Edwards has ascended from undrafted free agent to a top-three IDP linebacker seemingly overnight. Some may say I am crazy to suggest this player may come crashing down to Earth, considering we have seen growth from year-to-year. It would be easy to plot his data on a line graph; just trace your marker upward. So what gives? Why do we need to fade this top asset? There’s a variety of reasons why, but we have to first start with his ascension to this status.

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T.J. Edwards Making His Name

Edwards started his career undrafted out of Wisconsin. He signed on with the Eagles in 2019 and only started 4 total games as a rookie. During the 2020 season, we finally saw him emerge as a fantasy-relevant player, where he compiled 70 total tackles and two sacks. The next two years really showed us the best version of Edwards. In 2021 he had 130 total tackles, and in 2022, he had an astounding 159 total tackles, which was seventh in the league. Over the course of his four-year career, we have seen Edwards come from an undrafted player who barely saw the field to a top-five dynasty linebacker. The 26-year-old linebacker was a dynasty manager’s dream and a redraft manager’s darling pick. He was a can’t-miss, won’t-miss talent that had three straight career-high years. Until his situation and circumstance changed.

Change of Scenery

During his time in Philadelphia, once Edwards ascended the depth chart, he was a big fish in a small linebacker pond. His contemporaries during the 2021 and 2022 seasons included Genard Avery, Shaun Bradley, Nakobe Dean, Alex Singleton, and Kyzir White. This isn’t exactly a who’s who of linebackers, so the points were ripe for the picking, and Edwards didn’t hesitate. He is now a member of the Chicago Bears, a team known for great linebacker play, but he now may be a small fish in a big pond. His competition now consists of Tremaine Edmunds and IDP darling Jack Sanborn. Edmunds has been a consistent performer for his previous team as well, and Jack Sanborn had an Edwards-like trajectory in his own right for the Bears this past season. All three of these players are listed as the starting linebackers for the Bears, where Edwards is slated as the Strong Side Linebacker. With Edmunds manning the middle, he appears to be the safest IDP option in a Bears system we have seen elevate the middle linebacker scoring (Let’s not forget the IDP dominance of Roquan Smith during his tenure). While I find it hard to believe Sanborn will continue the pace he set himself last season prior to the injury, it is important to note that he isn’t just going to go away. He proved himself last year as a credible linebacker talent, and he is the man most familiar with the Bears scheme, although he is only a second-year player. One more interesting fact that we should keep in mind, Sanborn is also an undrafted linebacker from Wisconsin and is virtually identical to Edwards physically.

Regressing to the Mean

Edwards' stats and rise to relevancy aren’t something we should just ignore when evaluating his potential this season. The reality, though, is that he isn’t going to improve for a fourth straight career year. The talent around him is significantly better, and he will be learning a new system. It is also a blow to his production that he will be lined up on the outside as opposed to the inside - where he has been primarily for the last two seasons. So what can we expect? Don’t expect him to be a bad player suddenly, but he is likely going to be overdrafted in redraft leagues due to his recent ascending statistics. With three straight increases and his relatively young age, he is a prime candidate for a risky pick. Had he not moved teams, this would be safe, but as a Bears player, you must wait and see in redraft. Look to snag him in the LB10-15 range. In Dynasty, his value is higher than in other formats. He is still young and has a track record of success, he may just not be that set-and-forget guy anymore. If you can, move him for a second- or third-round pick, as his past numbers justify the risk involved for both sides. If you get a second-rounder, you move on regardless of his numbers feeling good with the capital received. At the end of the day, Dynasty value is fluid, and you need to capitalize on the highs and lows of players. We may have already seen his peak performance, but that doesn’t mean his mid-tier performance is bad.

Conclusion

In fantasy football, you don’t want to be the guy who held for too long. A lot of times, when a player has an opportunity in a high point-volume position, his numbers will increase by proxy. This is the case we saw with T.J. Edwards in Philadelphia. Since he has moved, he is going to have to prove to us that he can produce consistently regardless of scheme and competition. The Bears have given us many significant linebackers in the storied legacy of the franchise. From Mike Singletary to Brian Urlacher, we have seen legendary names come and go from the position. The most recent departure of Roquan Smith last season shows us that the potential is there for a new face to emerge. Edwards will have a crack at this, but he will be challenged by a man who has already curried favor from the coaching staff as well as a proven IDP linebacker. Edwards will not be the player he was in 2022, and you need to make sure you don’t draft or acquire him as such.

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