IDP content is part of the ELITE package for Footballguys Premium Subscriptions. We're making this preview available so you can see the edge these subscribers are getting. Sign up here.
It's date night! You've been waiting all week to try this restaurant you've heard rave reviews about. A consistent fixture in the nightlife of your community, but one that you just haven't had the opportunity to try. The ambiance is great, the management and service outstanding in its field, and there are pictures of its history throughout, showing that it is a longstanding pillar of excellence. It is known for its three steaks. One is a pricey imported Wagyu that you know is worth it. One is a ribeye that is significantly lower in cost but, on paper, sounds like the quintessential steak. Lastly, there is a new steak, one that you don't know much about that you quickly dismiss. You don't want to overpay, so you choose the ribeye. You get it, take that first bite that is a week in the making, and… it's BLAND! There's no seasoning! On paper, this steak was the perfect price point for your taste, but it was simply a cheap and tough piece of meat.
Ladies and gentlemen, meet Patrick Queen, ribeye and also inside linebacker for the Baltimore Ravens.
Should You Fade Drue Tranquill in 2023?
Should You Fade T.J. Edwards in 2023?
What We Know About Patrick Queen
Bad analogies aside, Queen is a great example of all sizzle, no steak. To this point in his career, it is safe to say he is a disappointing IDP asset. The former first-round pick from LSU was drafted to be a staple in the Ravens defense, and his rookie year showed us a very exciting performance from the 21-year-old - 106 total tackles with various other stats, including three sacks and three created turnovers (two forced fumbles and one interception). These were a great start to what felt like a promising career. He had a steep drop off the next season with decreases in all the above-mentioned statistics, including less than 100 total tackles. Last season was a bit of a bounce-back year, with career highs in both sacks and tackles, but something just didn't feel together. This season, Queen is slotted to man the weakside linebacker position again, but he may not be long for this spot…
Influx of Competition
The reality of the NFL is that it is a "What have you done for me lately?" league. If the people in charge of personnel don't feel as though you are contributing, they will acquire talent to either motivate you to perform or inevitably replace you. Last season, the Ravens traded for IDP superstar linebacker Roquan Smith. Smith has been a dominating linebacker since he came into the league, so we know that he will get his stats. Last season, we saw a watered-down version of Smith as he learned this new system. A version of him that still finished with 169 total tackles. This season, we are likely to see him improve upon those numbers now that he has a full offseason with his new team. The team also drafted Trenton Simpson, an inside linebacker from Clemson, in the third round. John Harbaugh is a defensive head coach, so when the team drafts a defensive player, especially an inside linebacker, IDP managers need to take notice. This is high enough capital to pay attention to what the future of the Ravens defense looks like. There may be a learning curve going from NFL to college, but he will have a role in this defense, and it will be at the expense of Queen.
Ravens Losing Faith
When evaluating a linebacker in IDP, it is important to know which position he plays. The stalwarts of your teams will be the man in the middle. The Ravens moved Queen from inside to weakside last season, which will have an impact on his week-to-week stats. If that wasn't enough to dampen the mood, the Ravens also declined his fifth-year option while also signing Smith to the largest deal in NFL history for a linebacker. These are not ideal circumstances if you are a Queen manager. The writing may be on the wall for his tenure as a Baltimore Raven.
What to Expect
Patrick Queen has me talking out of both sides of my mouth. On one hand, redraft managers may be able to get a decent beginning of the year out of him. As of this writing, he will be the starter opposite Roquan Smith, so the opportunity for points is there. It is likely that the longer the season goes, the less he plays, but he is a draftable player in redraft. He does have credible LB2 numbers when he plays. He is not the tier of the Smiths or Foye Oluokun, but he will score when given an opportunity to play. The issue we run into is how long he will play a high volume of snaps. In Dynasty, he needs to be a sell-while-you-can guy, but his market is shrinking. If you can get anything for Queen, you need to jump on it. There's a new sheriff in town with Simpson, and the savvy IDP managers will know this. But remember, in the short term, Quenn will have increased value. He is a starter for your team in Week 1, but getting into the crucial weeks 10-12, who knows where he will be on the depth chart. Look for Trenton Simpson to take this job before the fantasy playoffs.
Conclusion
Patrick Queen had all the makings of the next big thing at linebacker in IDP. He had a defensive head coach, high draft capital, and he was young. Unfortunately, he seems to have lost the faith of his team and coach. Whether it is position change or lack of a long-term contract, Queen appears to be on the way out of Baltimore. He is a dynasty avoid but could benefit you early in redraft. The risk isn't worth the reward, so look elsewhere in a redraft league. Who knows what his late-season value will be, but it won't be high. Don't go to a restaurant that serves bland food. Don't fall for paper stats. Watch the games, and read the tea leaves. Queen's time has passed him by. Move on now before you get burned.
Follow me on Twitter @mattmontyff, and make sure you're following @footballguys for all your fantasy football-related content! Who knows what you might learn?