Should You Fade Demario Davis in 2023?

Fans of IDP, especially those that play in dynasty leagues, know that when you hit that elite inside linebacker, you’ve found a cornerstone for your defensive franchise. For many years the ideal candidate for this backing was Demario Davis. Demario Davis started his IDP relevancy in 2013 when he achieved 100+ total tackles for the first time in his career. Since that season, Davis has been a high-quality linebacker for IDP. His floor has been high LB2, with some outlier years of LB1 dominance, but one can safely say he is worthy of a decent pick in most formats. There is still a case to be made that he is worth a higher pick in IDP, but this wouldn’t be a hill worth dying on. Last season he was anywhere between a top 50-70 IDP (all positions), depending on your league’s scoring. There is plenty of reason to believe that was the last season we see a finish in the top 100, and there are a variety of reasons why.

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A Changing of a Guard?

As is true with most great players, there comes a point when a hungry young player begins to take some of the shine from the old stalwart of the team. There may be no greater example of that than the linebacker corps in New Orleans. Young star linebacker Pete Werner was doing Davis no favors this past season and was pacing for top-five linebacker numbers prior to an injury that stole almost half his season. Despite only being healthy for nine games, Werner finished the year with 80 tackles, which was just 31 fewer than Davis, who played all 17 games. Werner was slowly but surely cementing himself as the defensive centerpiece, and it is safe to say Davis got the lion's share of his points between Week 10 and 18. Over that span, Davis compiled 59 of his 109 total tackles and had just half of a sack. The most telling stat here is his sudden decline in sacks, showing that the Saints defense changed how he was being used to accommodate Werner’s absence. Prior to this change, Davis was on pace for double-digit sacks but fewer than 100 total tackles. Werner will be back next year, and seeing as he is just 24 years old, there’s little reason to believe he won’t be dominant yet again.

Davis' Age and Salary

There’s also the age argument, which isn’t always a clear and defining rule for a player suddenly bottoming out, but it is something managers need to take notice of. The NFL more and more is becoming a fast-paced, “athleticism over all other skills” league. There are simply too many great athletes coming into the league each year in their early 20s that don’t command high dollars. This season, Davis will be 34 years old. This is also the last year where his salary isn’t an outlier - he will only be owed $1,165,000 in base salary. In 2024, that will balloon to $10,000,000. He is the perfect candidate for a trade and restructure at the end of his career, and as we previously mentioned, he has a more than capable replacement as a cornerstone player, who would be significantly cheaper next year. Werner will be making over $1,000,000 for the first time in his career this year. It doesn’t take a mathematician to notice the significant salary difference. If it becomes a blind resume situation between Davis and the younger Werner, Davis is the odd one out.

Should Davis Be On or Off Your Roster?

Enough of the negative! While we have identified Davis as a candidate for a drop-off, that doesn’t mean he can’t positively impact your team. Davis is likely going to be drafted higher than he deserves in redraft. There’s no reason you should select him as a top-15 linebacker, though you may see him go as one. Your best bet is to draft or acquire him for depth and not worry about missing out when you see his name creep to the top of the best available linebackers. In Dynasty leagues, he is a bottom-tier LB2 and is strictly a roster placeholder or great bench guy who you can play in spot starts sporadically. There is value to having a guy like Davis on your roster, though, so if you happen to have or acquire him, just make sure you have a future plan or don’t over-expect return for the investment in him. Most IDP formats start two or three linebackers. If Davis is anywhere between your third- to fifth-best linebacker, that is good value. If he is your shining star, it is most definitely time to move on! So what if you’re the guy who is in the midst of a rebuild? While his value won’t be the first- or second-rounders some of the premiere players will fetch, there’s nothing wrong with getting a late-round dart throw or two or even a depth player from a manager who has too many options at a certain position. There is no correct answer, but the wrong answer is not utilizing the value he still DOES have. A team in the win-now window could absolutely benefit from having positional depth at a spot in IDP known for point production, so don’t stick your nose up if someone offers you a trade. Both managers can win the trade at the right price.

Summary

The hardest decisions most managers have to make with their teams are when to give up on a player and how long he should be rostered if he is underperforming. The good news for Davis managers is that he hasn’t dive-bombed to the point of simply cutting him from your roster. Take this information and run with it! The time to move off him as a starter for your team is now while his value is still there, but these windows will be closing sooner and sooner for a player of his age. There are way worse players to roster that have had decent seasons (I will be mentioning these players throughout the next few weeks), so look at Davis as a guy who will be an average linebacker who will have above-average games sporadically for your team. He’s an ironman, so injuries don’t often derail him, and he likely plays this whole year, barring a trade or unforeseen signing. While there are players better than Davis, you can’t go wrong with signing a guy you know can score, but do your team and yourself a favor and get the right value for him!

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