Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Dolphins
The No.1 goal line team in HLO continues to surge ahead of the NFL field for the season. Raheem Mostert is a touchdown maven, and they have third-, fourth-, and first-place finishes the past three weeks. Mostert being healthy this year has been one of the biggest boons for fantasy in 2023. With Week 17 still in front of us, there is a window for De'Von Achane or Jeff Wilson to be a league winner.
Bengals
Chase Brown rising to the clear RB2 role is the notable news item for the Cincinnati backfield, paired with Jake Browning keeping the offense viable in Joe Burrow's absence. The Bengals have been a completely different HLO team, with Browning in for the injured Joe Burrow with weekly finishes of fifth, first, and fifth over the past three weeks. These are three of Cincinnati's best four HLO finishes of the season. Brown is another league-winning candidate in Week 17 if Joe Mixon misses time. Trayveon Williams can be safely dropped in redraft and dynasty formats.
Cardinals
James Conner from Week 15 is a perfect example of starting a workhorse running back profile despite a strong defense against them. Conner benefits from any goal-line opportunities and can collect targets should the game script turn negative. Conner ended up with a big game against the 49ers last week and the No.2 HLO finish of the week, Arizona's best of the season. Arizona was clearly the worst HLO team in the opening three months of the season but, over this final month, is trending to respectable. The RB2 role is a mess, however, and one to avoid with Michael Carter and Emari Demercado in a full split behind Conner.
THE BAD
Seahawks
Ken Walker III's 2022 and 2023 seasons are even more impressive through the lens of HLO. Seattle has been poor over the span in HLO, and as the phrase goes here in this series, the two running backs consistently able to outperform low team HLO are Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry over the years. Walker is rivaling that tandem. Seattle is 28th in targets on the season and has only one weekly finish higher than 10th since Week 6. Walker churned out highlight plays against the Eagles in Week 15 to more than 20 fantasy points despite Seattle's No.31 weekly HLO finish.
THE UGLY
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has been passable in HLO this season, but the dip over the past two weeks with No.22 and No.32 finishes is concerning. The good news is, like James Conner, Rachaad White has a stronghold on an elite market share of rushing and routes for the depth chart rotation for the Buccaneers. White is a fantasy RB1 on volume opportunity alone and, at worst, an RB2 outcome despite the team being in the bottom 10 in goal line and target categories on the season. The biggest takeaway is not prioritizing Chase Edmonds. Despite being the clear RB2 behind White, Edmonds would have an uphill climb with Tampa Bay's poor HLO to make an impact in relief.
Vikings
Minnesota had a spot start for Ty Chandler in Week 15, with Alexander Mattison inactive. Despite a No.27 HLO week, Ty Chandler zoomed to 25 PPR points thanks to a dominant market share of the backfield. This author has dubbed the Alexander Mattison Effect over the years, with the concept being there are backfields where the RB2 can see a higher market share than the current RB1 if there is an injury due to the bigger gap between RB2 and RB3. The irony is Alexander Mattison, who has been a middling fantasy option all season, was just Alexander Mattison'ed by Ty Chandler on his own depth chart. HLO did not help Chandler, however, but the market share over Kene Nwangwu was the key for his big fantasy day.