Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).
In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours
Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- QB C.J. Stroud
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- WR Puka Nacua
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
- RB Aaron Jones
- WR Christian Watson
- WR DeAndre Hopkins
- RB Austin Ekeler
- WR Brandin Cooks
- WR Diontae Johnson
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
- TE Travis Kelce
- TE Mark Andrews
- RB Breece Hall
- TE Pat Freiermuth
Eligible to return from injured reserve
- N/A
Ruled Out
- WR Jakobi Meyers (concussion)
- TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring)
- RB Evan Hull (knee)
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
C.J. Stroud| Shoulder Injury | Questionable | 50/50
C.J. Stroud was added to the Friday injury report with shoulder soreness in his throwing arm. Even though the Texans have Stroud listed as questionable, I am not overly worried. This does appear to be a soreness issue and not an injury. Stroud was a full participant all week, and we know that QBs wear non-contact practice jerseys, so it is unlikely he was tackled/hit in practice, which causes most injuries. I would expect Stroud to suit up this week even though we have him listed as a Game-Time Decision.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Illness | Questionable | 50/50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with some sort of illness that is putting his availability at risk in Week 2. These types of issues are so variable, but the good news is fantasy managers will know early if he can play since Kansas City kicks off at 1:00 PM EST.
Sunday Update: Reporters are saying that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to play.
Aaron Jones | Hamstring Strain | Questionable | Likely Inactive
Even though Green Bay and Aaron Jones himself tried to initially put a positive spin on his hamstring injury, it does not look as though he will play in Week 2. Jones did not practice all week and the average time missed for NFL RBs with hamstring injury is 3 weeks. I originally projected a Week 3 return, and I am sticking with that.
Sunday Update: Per Adam Schefter, Jones is not expected to play.
Christian Watson | Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Inactive
Christian Watson was on the normal trajectory to miss another week before he logged a limited practice on Friday and teased fantasy managers across the globe. In last week's "Gameday Injury Expectations" I informed Footballguys subscribers that, on average, NFL WRs miss 2.5 weeks with a hamstring injury, but when filtering out field stretchers with sub 4.4 seconds 40-yard dashes, the average time missed increased by 0.5 weeks with a high re-injury risk. Taking all this information into consideration with the fact that prior to Friday Watson did not practice all week, Week 2 seems unlikely, and there's a possibility he even sits Week 3.
Sunday Update: Per Adam Schefter, Watson is not expected to play.
Travis Kelce | Hamstring Strain| Questionable | Likely Active
Travis Kelce practiced all week (limited) and, per reports, did game-like/simulated activity. As of Saturday, I have not read anything or heard anything that Kelce experienced discomfort or increased swelling as a result of these practices. I would expect him to play, but his snaps may be limited slightly. Tight ends with knee injuries, on average, have a 5-10% decline in fantasy production. Even with that, Kelce could easily finish as the TE1 in Week 2.
Mark Andrews | Quadriceps | Questionable | Likely Active
Mark Andrews fooled me last week. After logging three straight limited practices I felt like there was a good enough chance he could play, but ultimately I was proven wrong. This week, Andrews was limited but practiced fully on Friday, and all the reports out of Baltimore suggest Andrews is going to start at Cincinnati. Between Andrews and Travis Kelce, the TE1 and TE2 in fantasy football should be back this week.
Sunday Update: Ian Rapoport has Mark Andrews slated to play today.
Austin Ekeler | Ankle Injury | Doubtful | Likely Inactive
One of the great things about Austin Ekeler is he enjoys fantasy football, he is a fantasy football enthusiast, and over the last few years, he has let fantasy managers know if he's playing when there is doubt about his injury situation. Ekeler hinted earlier in the week that he was trending to being out, and the Chargers officially have him listed as doubtful. Joshua Kelley was my #1 waiver wire priority heading into Week 2 and becomes an instant starter in Ekeler's absence.
It sounds like Ekeler is dealing with the dreaded high ankle sprain which can really hinder rest-of-season (ROS) fantasy football production.
On average, NFL RBs miss 3.5 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Of that sample, only 11% missed one week. Examining performance, compared to pre-injury level, there is an 18% average decline in fantasy points per game following a high ankle sprain. For a high-ceiling player such as Ekeler, that likely doesn't mean much as he would drop from a top-3 fantasy RB to a top-10 option, but more importantly, I think this makes Joshua Kelley a viable option ROS. The Chargers showed in Week 1 that they want to establish the run, and Ekeler himself has been vocal in the past that he wants a running mate to split the work with him. All of this points to Ekeler missing additional time, and even when he does return, Kelley still being someone you can plug into your FLEX position.
Sunday Update: Ekeler has officially been ruled out.
DeAndre Hopkins | Ankle Injury | Questionable | Likely Inactive
DeAndre Hopkins is another player that could possibly be dealing with a high ankle sprain. Although the specifics of his injury have not been conveyed just yet, he is trending in the wrong direction for Week 2.
DeAndre Hopkins ankle
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) September 14, 2023
Dr. Chao and staff are calling for a possible high ankle sprain
Video fits the mechanism.
96% of WRs since 2017 have missed at least one week.
For rest of season outlook you're going to want to read @Footballguys Gameday Expectations on Saturday https://t.co/pprgmW8MLu
If Hopkins is also dealing with a high ankle sprain, then, like Austin Ekeler, his ROS production is at risk of being negatively impacted. On average, WR fantasy points per game drop by 17%. However, unlike Ekeler, Hopkins is not a top-tier fantasy option and a 17% decrease in fantasy points would really eat into his bottom line. I will monitor this situation closely but if we get word that Hopkins does have a high ankle sprain, make plans to pivot if you were counting on him in 2023.
Sunday Update: Despite not practicing all week, all signs are pointing to Hopkins playing in Week 2. This can be a tough situation to navigate but I have Hopkins in the WR3 range above guys like Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin and Gabe Davis.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST Games
Puka Nacua | Oblique Injury| Questionable | 50/50
Our waiver wire darling, Puka Nacua, was a late addition to the injury report with an oblique/core injury. Rams' HC Sean McVay has said that Nacua should be available, but the track record of this injury is not great. McVay's track record of being truthful regarding injuries is good, however, and thus the dilemma. I'd expect the fantasy community to have more clarity Saturday night/Sunday morning, but I'd be remiss if I did not at least voice my concern so you can get an early start on a backup plan.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST Games
Brandin Cooks | MCL Sprain | Questionable | Likely Inactive
Brandin Cooks popped up on the injury report early this week with a "knee injury" that later was labeled as an MCL sprain. The bad news is, on average, NFL WRs miss 3-4 weeks with this injury, with 65% of skill position players missing 3+ weeks. The good news is that this injury is not considered to be overly serious, suggesting that Cooks has a grade-I MCL sprain. Because Cooks plays in the afternoon slate, fantasy managers really can't afford to risk it, and I am here to tell you that doing so would be unwise. Cooks probably has a 50/50 shot for Week 3, but Week 4 seems the most likely, given the data on this injury.
Sunday Update: Adam Schefter has confirmed our worries, as Cooks is not expected to play Sunday.
Breece Hall| Knee | Questionable | Likely Active
There is nothing wrong with Breece Hall; he is going to play. New York seems intent on handling him with kid gloves, which, given the recent circumstances around their franchise, makes sense. I want to slightly caution Hall managers with a rather unpopular opinion, given all the optimism around him following Week 1. The Jets told us from the clip that they were going to ease Hall in and reinforced that message when they signed Dalvin Cook.
Hall was wildly efficient. At his current level, it's not sustainable...at least not on the ground.
Pre vs Post ACL efficiency
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) September 12, 2023
Adrian Peterson 2012 season
Yds/att: ⬆ï¸29%
Carries/gm: ⬆ï¸25%
Tgt share: same
Breece Hall in 1 game (11 total touches)
Yds/att: ⬆ï¸126%
Carries/gm: ⬇ï¸12.2%
Tgt share: ⬇ï¸24%
In Week 1, New York only gave Hall 11 touches, and although that should continue to go up some, I don't see a dramatic uptick in Week 2. In leagues where you have other strong options, I would want to see it one more time from Hall. That's just my two cents.
Monday Night / 7:15 PM EST Game
Diontae Johnson | Hamstring Strain| Questionable | Likely Inactive
As this is coming out Saturday, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not officially listed Diontae Johnson as "Doubtful", but most fantasy football platforms have taken that liberty for them. Because the Steelers don't play until Monday, he will have a late designation, but I don't see a world where he plays this week. Diontae is expected to miss several weeks, but the fact that he has avoided IR is a great sign for his chances to return in Week 4.
Saturday Update: Johnson has been ruled out.
Pat Freiermuth | Oblique Injury| Questionable | Likely Active
Similar to Diontae Johnson, because it is a Monday game, Pittsburgh has not yet dropped on official injury designation, but all signs point to Pat Freiermuth playing Monday night. The sophomore TE practiced in full on Friday. Because the TE landscape is thin, some managers might be nervous because Monday leaves them with little opportunity to pivot, but I am writing this to instill confidence - no Plan B needed.
Amari Cooper | Groin Strain| Questionable | Likely Inactive
Amari Cooper was a late addition to the injury report after he reaggravated his groin injury during Saturday's practice. Because he is a late add to the injury report and considering that 65% of WRs miss at least one week with a groin injury, I think he likely does not play.